It looks Sen. Bill Nelson is just too far behind Gov. Rick Scott for Democrats to cheat their way into the seat. But maybe that’s not giving them enough credit.
According to Politico:
Nelson has two major problems, experts say: Nelson’s lawsuits were filed so late and courts generally frown on last-minute post-election changes, and the margin he trails Scott by is so big that even expanding the pool of available ballots to count makes it highly unlikely that Nelson could make up enough ground.
“A royal flush is right on the money. Nelson would have to have a perfect hand,” said Michael Morley, a Florida State University election law professor, echoing two other experts who spoke to POLITICO.
“He would have to win in every case. And even then, it would not seem to be enough to change the outcome,” Morley said. “One study that I’ve seen shows that in the 21st Century, there have only been three statewide races that have had their results changed as a result of a recount. And in each of those races, the margins were in the hundreds, not more than 12,000.”
As of the most recent update, only 7,871 absentee ballots were rejected statewide due to “voter error,” which could include mismatched signatures on the ballots compared with what’s on file with the state. And of them, 35 percent were cast by Republicans, 36 percent by Democrats and 29 percent by independents. Another 10,186 ballots were rejected because their envelopes were unsigned. Of them, 31 percent were cast by Republicans, 44 percent by Democrats and 24 percent by independents.
So if all those ballots were counted, Nelson would have to win 85 percent of them statewide in an election where he couldn’t get 50 percent of the vote so far.