President Trump still has a chance to win reelection. That’s because he still could win in Arizona, despite the calls by AP and Fox News of the state for Joe Biden.
Here’s how AP explained its call:
The AP called the race at 2:50 a.m. EST Wednesday, after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded there were not enough outstanding to allow Trump to catch up.
With 80% of the expected vote counted, Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points, with a roughly 130,000-vote lead over Trump with about 2.6 million ballots counted. The remaining ballots left to be counted, including mail-in votes in Maricopa County, where Biden performed strongly, were not enough for Trump to catch up to the former vice president.
Ohhhhkay. I’m looking at the CNN live election results map — even if you don’t like CNN, check it out, it’s great — at 7:45 pm ET November 4. It says that 82% of the vote has now been counted, and that Trump is down by about 93,000 votes and about 3.5 percentage points.
Now that is quite a change, isn’t it?
Ned Ryan, founder and CEO of the conservative activist nonprofit American Majority, writes in American Greatness:
Fact is, upwards of 600,000 votes, mostly early, in-person ballots, are still being counted in the Grand Canyon State today. That’s one of the reasons CNN and ABC News haven’t called the state for Biden. Yet Fox refuses to retract its Arizona call.
While Trump does currently trail Biden by just over 90,000 votes, the numbers coming in on vote breakdown are, according to the Trump campaign, holding true to Election Day votes, which broke about 65 percent to 35 percent for the president. Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said on a call Wednesday with reporters that “based on the math we’ve been seeing as these late ballots are counted, anywhere from two-thirds to 70 percent of these votes are coming to the president.”
If true, and if the campaign’s numbers are right, Trump would in fact overtake Biden in Arizona. Depending on the percentage of how the remaining votes break, whether it’s 58 percent or 60 percent or 65 percent, the Trump campaign might be able to squeeze out a vote margin of anywhere from 7,000 to 30,000 votes—perhaps as many as 50,000—shifting Arizona’s 11 electoral votes into Trump’s column.
More votes will be in from Arizona soon.
Trump could also still win in Nevada too, where Biden leads by less than 8,000 votes. But Nevada, as some of you know, is a Democratic machine created by the greasy old pol Harry Reid.
The problem is that Trump has to hang on in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Both of those are far from sure bets. So even if Arizona happens, things have to break his way.