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Washington Post: Trump Electoral College Advantage May be Deepening

Huh? Washington Post?

Here’s the logic, which the Post must have found truly inescapable to present it. Or at the very least, they felt they needed to raise the alarm.

According to the piece:

The big gubernatorial victories in Kentucky and Louisiana has unleashed optimism in the Democratic Party. They underscored the story we’ve seen again and again in the Trump era: Democratic gains in the suburbs and among college-educated whites are helping Democrats assemble a potent anti-Trump coalition, even in some of the reddest parts of the country.

But behind the numbers, there is another reality lurking: It remains unclear how much this will matter in 2020 against President Trump — because of the peculiar nature of the advantage that Trump may hold in the electoral college.

Turnout skyrocketed, but on both sides, because Trump is energizing pro-Republican turnout, as well. The difference-maker was that Democrats engineered big swings in suburbs with a lot of college-educated voters, such as the areas outside New Orleans and in northern Kentucky, across the river from Cincinnati.

The crucial point here, though, is that Republicans also made gains — that is, they increased their margins, as well as turnout — in more rural parts of the country.

n the most educated areas in both states, the Democratic margin and turnout surged. But the same happened for Republicans in the remaining areas in the two states. On balance, in those states, Democrats still fared better from those competing dynamics.AD

But here’s the rub. Those same dynamics have real ramifications for Trump’s advantage in the electoral college. That’s because the states with the most-educated populations won’t be decisive in the electoral college, while the states with the less-educated populations will be crucial, particularly in the Rust Belt.

For instance, in Wisconsin, the percentage of eligible voters who are white and have college degrees is a low 27 percent. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s 33 percent, according to Wasserman’s data. By contrast, in a dozen leading blue states, those voters average about 40 percent.

This means Democrats could run up huge margins in urban/suburban and cosmopolitan America, winning the popular vote by a greater margin than in 2016, while still losing in the electoral college. As Wasserman noted, the fact that Republicans are also improving in their areas suggests that Trump’s electoral college advantage — relative to the popular vote — may be deepening.

Well, I gather this will be used as another “Exhibit A” for eliminating the Electoral College. Because, you know, when you’re losing the game, change the rules.

5 Responses to Washington Post: Trump Electoral College Advantage May be Deepening

  1. “That’s because the states with the most-educated populations won’t be decisive in the electoral college, while the states with the less-educated populations will be crucial…”

    In Summary, according to WashPost; if you Vote for Trump 2020…You are stupid, hick-hill billy, white trash.

  2. The Dems/MSM just love talking about how their voters are college educated smartypants, but they just overlook the vast number of Dem voters that are high school dropouts, illiterate immigrants, and those holding minimum wage jobs. There aren’t many college educated voters working in the trade unions, the auto industry, the work force that cleans motel rooms, and those who cut veggies in the fancy restaurants, but the Dems/MSM never acknowledges them as just as smart at the college educated.

    All of us who live in fly-over country might be as dumb as a box of rocks, but we have personal firearms to protect our families, can drink a soda through a plastic straw, and know the difference between a man and a woman.

  3. But here’s the rub. Those same dynamics have real ramifications for Trump’s advantage in the electoral college. That’s because the states with the most-educated populations won’t be decisive in the electoral college, while the states with the less-educated populations will be crucial, particularly in the Rust Belt.
    ‘They’ still don’t get it.