In the history of mankind, many republics have risen, have flourished for a less or greater time, and then have fallen because their citizens lost the power of governing themselves and thereby of governing their state. TR


Economic Models Point to Trump Landslide

Trump landslide? Huh?

It could happen. The bottom line is that things are going well. And the current situation is not like that faced by George H.W. Bush in 1992, when people were ready for a change — President Trump will have only been in office for less than four years on Election Day.

If anything, Trump’s outrages will matter less this time around. People elected him when few could imagine him as president. Not they can imagine it.

According to Politico:

President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations.

But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses. Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents.

While Trump appears to be in a much stronger position than his approval rating and conventional Beltway wisdom might suggest, he also could wind up in trouble if the economy slows markedly between now and next fall, as many analysts predict it will. And other legal bombshells could explode the current scenario. Despite all these caveats, Trump looks surprisingly good if the old James Carville maxim coined in 1992 — “the economy, stupid” — holds true in 2020.

“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”

5 thoughts on “Economic Models Point to Trump Landslide”

  1. Tough to try to draw comparisons….

    1. George HW Bush let us down…. after being all Alpha Male… Read my lips… no new taxes….then gives us taxes…

    2. Reagan – 2 terms prior… and except for the Carter 4 years another 8 years prior to that Nixon/Ford years. 1992 was still close enough for people to remember 1980 and 1974.

    3. Bush was boring — let Clinton get away with getting the narrative… Not seeing Trump do that…

    4.Bush was not much of a candidate in the first place — Dukkakakasis worked really hard to lose that election in 1988 in the first place — by 1992 I believe that the country would elect anyone other than Bush… You could run a a smiling BS-er from nowhere with a questionable past..Wait. They did.

    5. The Press/Democrats (redundant) have blown it…. I have hear so much junk now that I am tuned out.

    6. As long as Trump advisors can get him ready for the first debate — he should be able to handle the best and the brightest of the Democrats – Corry? Kamala? Beto?

    7. The noise is coming from California and NewYork and WashingtonDC area…Look at the Electoral Map…. The election is in Ohio, PA, MI, WI, FL, NC, GA, IA, NH, CO, NV and maybe a few others…heck the MN congresswoman is not hurting Trump’s chances in MN…

    8. Get some sections of Fence Up… dedicate a mile or 100 yards to each person killed by an illegal… run some ads with the Mom standing by the Wall saying “No Mom should have to go through what I have had to go through”….

    9. Trump can blow this still for sure… but I just see that he has the moxie and bravado to make Americans secretly want to vote for him — Every time a MAGA hat person is bullied or tormented — the more I am certain that I need to pull the lever for Trump.

    Record employment…. Democrats scaring away constituents — Jewish, non-transgender/pronoun/bathroom sharing weirdos… who don’t write poetry about waxing their butts or whatever….

    Have a great day! It is a great day in America.

  2. It could happen. For every anti-Trump radical shouting insults, there are 10,000 voters going about their business, and family quietly.

    The polls don’t reflect the disgust and disappointment out here in fly-over country for the MSM and the insane(?), outrageous Dem’s agenda for us.
    Yes, it could happen.

    1. Dear SrDem – I live in Southern California (very nearly as crazy as Northern California) and there are tons of us – the Quiet Ones – just like in flyoverville. We go about our business, ignore the attacks of the loony Dems and carry the war to the polls – and Letters to the Editor columns in many of our local newspapers.

  3. Nixon called them “The Silent Majority” and he barely beat Humphrey in 1968. Then when went on to win in a landslide in 1980.

    Silent Majority = MAGA

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