As of now, I am in control here, in the White House

Poll That’s Never Wrong Says GOP Will Keep the House

A little counterprogramming to your steady diet of predictions that the Democrats will remain in control of the House from the Washington Examiner:

Half of Americans believe that Republicans will maintain control of the House in the midterm elections Tuesday, according to Gallup’s final poll. The result of that question has lined up with the actual election outcome every time Gallup has asked it since 1946.

Fifty percent of Americans believe Republicans will stay in power in the House, while 44 percent believe Democrats will take control.

What does this say? It says Republicans are energized and optimistic. Democrats talk a good game and then a lot of their constituencies don’t bother to vote. And some Republicans and independents are ashamed to tell pollsters they’re going with Trump.

My prediction: The Republicans maintain control of the House. I just don’t think that with the economy so good and with President Trump passionately addressing issues conservatives care about, that voters are going to give the House to Democrats and hamstring the White House with investigations and impeachment.

British oddsmakers are putting the chances of Republicans keeping the House at about 30 percent. That’s not even odds, but it’s a lot better than the supposed experts in the United States are giving them. Where people are putting their money down, the odds look better for the GOP.

And so I’m wondering. WHAT DO YOU THINK??

5 Responses to Poll That’s Never Wrong Says GOP Will Keep the House

  1. IMO:
    Repubs keep the house majority, but lose a few seats.
    Repubs gain a few seats in the Senate.

    If, IF, the Repubs lose the majority, two years (2020) isn’t that far away.

  2. I am sticking with a prediction I’ve had for about a month or so. GOP loses about 12-15 House seats and picks up 4-5 Senate w flips in IN, FL, MO, ND and maybe MT. WV possible but I don’t see it happening.

    Governorships lost, about 4-5 (IL (a RINO anyway), OH, FL, NV. Florida makes me sick.

  3. I saw yesterday that Nate Silver all of a sudden says that either outcome is likely. So, apparently the 85% probability the Dems take the House is only about 50% and so he seems to be hedging his bets. Given that, I would think the Republicans likely will retain the House as well as Senate. Governor’s races, I would imagine Dems will pick up a few but certainly not all.