As of now, I am in control here, in the White House

Why Nobody Has Any Idea What Will Happen Tuesday

Don’t listen to pollsters. Don’t listen to people who can feel what’s happening on the ground. Don’t listen to anybody. If anything, trust your own gut, because you have as much idea as anyone what will happen Tuesday.

As I’ve watched and analyzed this race, I’ve come to the conclusion that there are just too many variables in play this year for anyone to make a serious prediction.

Even in normal years, the lack of foreknowledge can be striking. In 2004, John Kerry was certain, early on Tuesday evening, that he was going to win. In 2012, Mitt Romney was pretty certain of the same thing, also early Tuesday evening. Not Monday. Tuesday.

You know, President John Kerry and President Mitt Romney.

Let’s start with the polls.

I don’t think pollsters have figured out how to conduct surveys in the modern era. The golden days of calling everybody at home on the landline are long gone. Two new variables have been introduced — cell phones and online responses. I don’t think pollsters understand yet how to weigh these factors, which are constantly evolving as people’s habits continually change, and those with the oldest approach to technology die off while young adults who don’t even know what a landline looks like come of age. That’s one reason the polls are literally all over the place, sometimes even 15-20 points apart.

Anyway, even if you believe the polls, they show a very close race with a slight Clinton advantage. But so many big states are tossups, including Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and perhaps Michigan, which leans Clinton, and Ohio, which leans Trump. Beyond that, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and possibly Iowa, which leans Trump, and New Mexico, which leans Clinton, are tossups. And maybe even a few others.

It’s true, more tossups have to break Trump’s way. But it’s still crazy close. Nate Silver, perhaps the nation’s best political prognosticator, gives Trump and a one in three chance to win.

But these polls mean little for other reasons. First of all, we don’t know how many people are lying when they say they don’t support Trump, particularly those in the undecided column. Lots of people don’t want to admit they back Trump. Clinton, for all her extraordinarily negative features, is generally held as the more socially acceptable choice. You support Trump, and a woman is on the phone asking you who you will vote for. What do you say? Proabably, you say you will support him. But maybe you don’t.

We also have no idea about voter turnout. Clinton and the Democrats no doubt have a well-oiled, superior ground game. But is it as good as Obama’s? I doubt it. A good ground game requires get-out-the-vote volunteers who love their candidate. Nobody loves Hillary except Chelsea and Huma.

How good the GOP ground game will be is anyone’s guess. And, balancing Hillary’s organizational muscle is what seems to be more passion among Trump voters. Will still-furious Sanders voters turn out in the needed numbers for Clinton? Will African Americans?

Nobody knows the answers to these questions. The answers could cause dramatic shifts to the poll numbers we see.

I believe this election could end up deadlocked, with recounts, lawyers, and even civil unrest. Or Clinton could win in a landslide. Or, yes, Trump could win in a landslide.

We simply do not know.

46 Responses to Why Nobody Has Any Idea What Will Happen Tuesday

  1. Mr. keith, TCM showed Mr. Smith goes to Washington this afternoon EST. The filibuster segment and dialogue is like the bible. Fits, works and is applicable to every age. As for Wednesday morning when we rise from our pallets, the sun will come up. This country, this nation, is bigger than any politician. Liberty is a craving addiction affecting all humans. Citizens once they have tasted the sweetness of liberty, will fight for it, like all addictions, can’t get enough of it.

  2. The irony is that if Hillary loses the election, she will be the first to scream “fixed” election, or fraud, or crooked–all of which she accused Trump of when he hesitated when asked if he would support the election results if he lost. Of course, Hillary wouldn’t recognized irony if it was a giant bee sitting on her nose.

  3. If MrsClinton wins the election, she will be a lame duck President from the start. The public will have no respect for her or her agenda.
    The Dems will crow with joy, but they will know their time is near an end.
    If MrTrump wins the election, he, too, will be a lame duck President. Half of the public will consider him to be what the Dems have been saying about him.
    The Repubs will be stunned knowing that their time has ended and a new Repub party has been born.
    No matter who wins, the 2020 campaign for the presidency starts on Wednesday, 11/09/16.

    • Yes srdem65. We’ve been distracted by claims that we must have a majority or “be number one”. The Deplorables are a very large group that now have cohesion and direction that was missing in the Tea Party. This movement can stay together in deliberate focus for methodical gains without regard for who or which party holds any government office.

  4. I just heard tape of Hillary screaming during a rally… for the love of all that is holy and good, please don’t let those people back in to the White House.

      • The election phase is just about over so we’ll get short breather. The next period of torture will begin when Hillary starts screeching about how the Clinton Foundation is being investigated for criminal activity because she’s a woman and everyone knows Republicans hate all women. ;+}

  5. My stomach is in double knots about this election. Every time I hear her voice I send a beseeching prayer up – PLEASE GOD NOT HER. I don’t remember ever being this emotionally involved in an election – so much is on the line with this one. Praying that we get this election right…

  6. Of only one thing I am certain: That our next president will be a duplicitous, self-serving, lying, morally-flawed, serpent-like human being.

    The Framers could never have envisioned that people of such poor character would one day qualify for the highest office in the land.

    • We’ve been electing people like you describe for decades.
      The difference in today’s candidates – all the veneer is scraped away and we see exactly who they are.
      Yesterday’s candidates were smooth talkers and oh so concerned about our welfare, but really only cared about their own.
      ot: kinda
      There is only one candidate who will lower his standard of living, who will sacrifice his ability to grow and that’s MrTrump.

    • The Framers planned for imperfection…. 3 branches…other checks… even without a 4th estate.

      BTW – Trump wins because.
      1. Third Term for a party is tough
      2. Hidden (or hiding) support for Trump
      3. Forthright Narcissist is better than a forkedtongue Narcissist
      4. When Jlo leaves an event and 50% of the crowd leaves with the warmup act….
      5. About 45 other points…. 300+ electoral votes to Trump

      • On what do you base the accusation that Trump is a narcisist? A narcisist loves nothing and no one but himself, and beneath that is a seething self loathing and deep insecurity. This describes Trump in no way, shape, or form. He is brutally honest, loves the country, regularly is charitable and secretly so, I might add. Narcisists raise notoriously screwed up kids as well who hate them. I know if what I speak.

    • @Jed Starnes, your next President “will be a duplicitous, self-serving, lying, morally-flawed, serpent-like human being” only if her name is Hillary Clinton.

  7. Trump lost any chance of ‘winning’ on Day One when he failed to realize we are now a country without an ethnic majority. He is not a ‘racist’ – just obtuse.

    • @Girly1, you have posted nothing but negative comments about Trump for months. It will bring me great pleasure if he wins, and you will have to eat your words.

      • You forgot to mention that I have nothing good to say about HRC either.

        Trust me, I am not the only one who believes neither one of them are unfit to serve.

        So far, the First Amendment is alive and well. I do not disrespect the opinion of others, why do you?

  8. It is election eve…the night before the most important election of my lifetime. I am not quite as old as Mr. Trump, but I am a member of his generation.
    I will vote for him tomorrow.
    I will vote for him proudly.
    I will vote for him because he is pro-life.
    I will vote for him because I agree with his immigration policy.
    I will vote for him because he says to his supporters,
    “I want you to dream big.”
    My husband and I dreamed big many years ago. We dreamed that he could become more than a farm boy turned common laborer. His dreams propelled him forward and eventually, he became CEO of a company. His dreams propelled me, too, as I just tried to keep up with him. I cherish that life long experience and I pray for those experiences for our descendants.
    His mother taught us the three rules of life:
    1. Work hard.
    2. Treat people right.
    3. Trust God to take care of the details.
    Mr. Trump, thank you. I think you, too, followed those rules.
    A few years past I took a new look at our country and I was sad and disheartened.
    We had allowed radical liberalism to chip away at our Judeo-Christian culture. We sold ourselves short as we tried to observe political correctness. We were lost.
    And so I thought – and grieved – as I pondered the future of my grandchildren and great nieces and nephews.
    And then you came along.
    I prayed for a leader of the USA. A man who would take the reins and control the runaway horses who were hell-bent and determined to take us to a place I (and many others) didn’t want to go.
    I watched you closely. I listened to you. And I held to my distrust of all things political and to all politicians.
    And then, I heard you say you wanted to make America great again.
    I know that great America. I want that America for the generations who follow me. I really, really want this young generation to dream and live those dreams.
    This afternoon you spoke about Billy Graham. He is a servant of the living God. A televised broadcast of one of his crusades brought our son to Christ.
    You said your father had attended Billy’s crusades. That was all I needed to hear to know that you, Mr. Trump – you were “raised right.”
    I pray to God that you win this election. But even more – and far more – I pray God’s wisdom for you.
    After you win, you will need the wisdom of Soloman to take this country and this people and lead them to a better way. You will need the wisdom and faith based believing of David to kill the Goliath of evil that permeates the dangerous culture threatening our nation.
    It can be done, God willing. And you can do it with God’s help, Mr. Trump.
    God be with you, sir.
    And may God be with those God fearing citizens of the greatest nation on earth.
    God bless the USA. Please.

  9. In mod for two comments….precisely what is wrong with our country nowadays. I said nothing to offend anyone.
    But just in case I did, my comment must pass the “test” of some “PC” moderator.

    • It’s just the way it is. PS prayers cannot help Trump now. He is going down and hard. It’s not going to be pretty. It’s also well deserved. Never in my life have I seen such a bad presidential candidate and Hillary is a lying criminal! But we had Nixon and Harding before meaning we had lying criminals work in the oval office before. Never had someone like Trump work there.

  10. Oh shut up Keith. You said the same garbage four years ago with Romney for weeks leading up to that election that Obama would win by a small but significant margin. You refused to not only believe in polling but also the fact a weak candidate in Romney could not defeat a diminished but still effective Obama with the fallout of the Bush presidency still hanging in the wind. You really want to go 0 for 2 as my cup of coffee bet still stands for this race especially Mitt Romney looks like RR circa 1984 compare to Trump who is going to manage losing by over 300 electoral votes in a race the GOP should have won in a landslide! Hillary is a lying criminal who is the second worst presidential candidate I ever seen yet by 10 PM EST tomorrow, she will be your president elect because Trump is the worst candidate I ever seen bar none on every level imaginable!!

    My God why do you people insist on having the GOPer shoot itself in the head with a shotgun rather then picking more middle of the road candidates who has Reagan said get you 70-75% of what you want. Are you so hard up you rather lose and get nothing?? God what a loser mentality, no wonder why the only way Republicans are going to see the White House the next twenty years is with a visitor pass!

  11. Keith you said this stuff for months in 2012 and I called you out every single time even willing to place a friendly cup of joe on it yet you refused. You really want to go 0 for 2?

  12. I just got schooled by my granddaughter ( private message on facebook) how trump is a racist pig. This from one who cannot figure out how to pay her cell phone bill without my assistance every ..too often.
    Go Trump, God Bless America!!

    • Trump isn’t a racist. Look over his career and you can see he is neither a racist or a sexist. But he is a total pig who is the worst presidential candidate I ever seen. Donald literally handled her the presidency.

  13. Anyone who in protest casts a ballot for a candidate that has no prospect of winning or does not vote at all and thinks that Hillary Clinton will win anyway is courting a mistake bigger than they and those they care about will want to live with in a Trump ruled land. With Clinton in office, be it good, bad or much the same, is something from which the nation has an opportunity from which to recover. But not so with maniacal Trump empowered with more than he has ever abused before and who relishes above all else his perverted mistreating others. I will vote for Clinton, and do what you do in realization that what you risk falls on you and all others.