Four national tracking polls have been released so far Tuesday. Average them out, and you get a one-point lead for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.
Mrs. Clinton has crashed in the ABC/Washington Post poll, which just last week had her up by 12 points but which today shows a one-point lead for Trump. The LA Times/USC poll, which has for weeks by the most favorable to Trump, puts him up by four, though it had a slight lead for Clinton last week. The Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll, which was the most accurate in 2012, has Clinton ahead by one, and a Rasmussen Reports survey puts the race at a tie.
If anything, polls probably underestimate Trump’s support slightly, since some of his supporters might be bashful about admitted they back him.
Enthusiasm also seems to be with Trump. But don’t necessarily count on more of his supporters getting to the voting booth, since the Clinton campaign has a superior get-out-the-vote operation.
They’re going to need it, much more than they thought.
Other interesting polls released today come out of Virginia, which was supposed to be a lock for Hillary Clinton. A Washington Post poll has her up by six, while an Emerson University survey puts Clinton’s margin at only four points. But a Franklin & Marshall poll has Clinton leading by 11 points in Pennsylvania.