In the history of mankind, many republics have risen, have flourished for a less or greater time, and then have fallen because their citizens lost the power of governing themselves and thereby of governing their state. TR


It’s On: New Poll Shows Trump, Clinton Basically Tied

A new poll by NBC News puts Hillary Clinton just three points ahead of Donald Trump, a decline from the five-point margin in a poll conducted last week by the news organization.

On top of a Gravis poll released late last week that put Clinton just two points ahead of Trump, it is becoming increasingly clear that the election is easily close enough for Trump to stand an good chance of winning it.

Clinton dominates among minorities and women, Trump among whites and men. From the report:

Clinton, who was able to maintain her front-runner status throughout the Democratic primary by winning over black and Hispanic voters, continues to do extremely well among these voters over Trump. She wins black voters 84 percent to 9 percent – a 75 point gap—and wins Hispanics 65 percent to 28 percent. Trump is the preferred candidate among white voters by 14 points over Clinton—53 percent to 39 percent. This is up slightly from last week’s 11-point margin among white voters.

There is also a significant gender gap with Clinton beating Trump by 15 points among women, while Trump carries men by a similar 11-percent margin. Gender appears to be critical to this race already with Trump’s controversial comments about Clinton playing the “woman’s card” in order to explain her success over Sanders.

With the numbers so close, and given the number of things that can happen between now and Election Day, it is clear that this race is a complete tossup.

54 thoughts on “It’s On: New Poll Shows Trump, Clinton Basically Tied”

  1. Plot the trend lines. If they are virtually tied in May, chances are Trump is going to pull off an epic victory in November. I just cannot see Trump support bleeding to Hillary of all people, but I can see some Hillary support, and many of the undecideds, going Trump’s way. I will let myself be just a bit encouraged by this.

  2. What an extraordinary time in national politics. A private citizen who has never run for political office before has captured the fancy of certain voters in a way that is amazing and confusing to the elected elites.
    He is able to connect with the public and gain their unwavering support all the while taking incoming fire from all sides.
    He dared to be the serious candidate while his opposition claimed he was a performer, an actor, a fraud, and of course, a clown. He had no patience with the PC, “presidential” demeanor that would have caused him to be no more than the 16 opponents he defeated in the primary.
    Bold, fresh, and unprecedented. Amazing.

  3. The election is 25 weeks from today. It sure will be interesting. After everything thrown at Trump during the primary season, and now the recent NY Times hit piece failure, the Republicans might finally have a Teflon candidate.

    As far as Shrillary, here’s hoping the FBI recommends prosecution but Loretta Lynch declines to indict. I think that’s the better scenario for the Republicans than having a Joe Biden/Elizabeth Warren ticket in Shrillary’s place. There will plenty of leaks regarding Shrillary’s crimes.

    Regarding Shrillary’s health, I firmly believe she is not capable of campaigning in the vigorous manner that will be required over the summer and fall. I would not be surprised if she either falls or faints at a campaign event over the summer. Should that happen, she’s toast.

    1. You’re probably right about the DOJ declining to prosecute MrsC. They’ll cite that there was no intent to commit a crime or that the StateDept knew she was using a private server and were not alarmed by it.
      Indicted or not, MrsClinton is a damaged, frayed candidate.

      1. If that is indeed the way it plays out then there can be no further indictments or prosecutions of anyone caught violating security laws. The precedent will have been established by Clinton, anyone thereafter could claim stupidity, ignorance, etc.

        1. I see your point. But for us unconnected little folks they will throw the book at us!

          We are the serfs and they are our masters.
          Law for the hildabeast, she is above all that!

    2. If she “falls or faints”, the DNC will whip up a story that she was drugged by a conservative with a poisoned dart, and all the lefties will rally around her.

    3. Doesn’t “Shrillary” ‘take time off from the campaign’ (NO ONE in the media/press who follow her ever explain how she disappears) ever few weeks to get her regular Botox injections…?

      1. Yes, after campaigning about three days in a row for Kentucky, Shrillary had no public schedule at all today. No public appearances today or this evening, despite the two primary races. She needs her rest.

        She’ll never manage to campaign strenuously this summer. I can totally see her collapsing in the heat and humidity at some event this summer.

    4. I know a couple women who are ardent HRC supporters. Both are very intelligent and have lived well rounded lives. They are both “East Coasters.” I often wonder, “What are you thinking?” I don’t ask though.
      As for me, I will vote for Trump. I cannot vote for HRC..and I believe in capitalism…and I can’t abstain from voting. I believe that will be the thought process of many other people.

  4. Those who pay taxes are fed up with the squandering of our hard earned dollars, we are tired of non-enforcement of existing immigration law, and we are tired of international intervention for the sake of instilling democracy where it is not wanted.

    We want a leader who will represent us first, put our country’s safety and well being before others.

    Those who truly want to work are exhausted listening to false promises. They want a job, and a hand up, not a hand out.

    These are the Trump voters…and they are slowly building a head of steam that may bring eventual change in Washington, God willing…

    All the other people…well, you had your run, its over….hope you enjoyed it.


    1. We should play the same games the lefties do: for instance, put out a press release the night before the election that the INS is commissioned with assisting at the polling places…

  5. Good news, good news . The Washington-manipulated MSM in Europe is really trying hard to slander Trump ( just like your MSM ) but it is getting more and more difficult. Many of us understand that it will benefit Europe with Trump in the White House. He speaks to us as well. He seems to understand Europe´s hardships with immigration, cultural conflicts and the EU. He understands why Europe cannot accept the looming TTIP-deals. He is interested in business, trade and peace , not in conflicts and wars. Go Trump ! Change the world !

    1. Thank you swedishlady for what is indeed good news.
      It seems people people everywhere are waking up.
      Always look forward to your updates on what’s going on across the pond.

      1. Yes Star, but the difference is the current president acts with malice, hate and policies/decrees that are only to fundamentally transform America.
        If Trump is elected President, his actions will be based on love of country and the American people, stark contrast to Barry.
        Will Trump make mistakes, stumble change his mind?
        Of course, and we’ll hear about it every day from the propaganda corps.
        He’s the lesser of 3 evils, Hillary, Sanders. I won’t put Trump in the company of evil, but we only have 3 choices.

        1. You seem pretty sure all this is for love of country and not love self for Trump. Me, I am far from sure. And yes, these three eccentric half-nuts seniors are a bad range of choices. I see a lost 4-8 yrs and am getting more and more used to the idea. I actually used to cry about it…I waited so long to be rid of Obama…but now I am in the acceptance phase..whatever… I just hope it doesn’t go up in a white flash…I have been counting on my kid and me dying on different days and in different yrs.

          1. Is he altruistic or self-serving?

            I contend that it does not matter — if he is the former it is so wonderful that someone would do such a thing… If it is the latter — in order to serve himself he must bring value to others — like a capitalist — in order to make a crap-ton of money he must make others happy.

            Either way — Trump will make it happen.

          2. Just don’t share that view. What can I say? And half the stuff he wants or says he wants to make happen are anathema to me… All I feel now is a dull dread pitting out my stomach…

          3. @Star…Did I hear DJT tell Cameron “I’m not stupid’ or something like that this morning in response to something Cameron said? And this was after Cameron said he would support Trump last week.

            I have that same dread you are speaking of. Eight long yrs of Obama…and now…this!!!

  6. I think I understand Star, I maybe wrong.
    The days do seem shorter and the nights longer.
    Hopefully this is not the last election I can participate in, by voting and supporting a candidate. I was crushed when Romney lost.Why? I put to many hopes and dreams of a greater and stronger America with Romney as President. That was to much then to ask of one man, as it is today to ask of Trump.
    But I can’t back Hillary when she wants to continue Obamas agenda.
    Bernie? He wants to take some of the money I’ve EARNED and give it away as “free stuff”.
    Whew! Running out of breath. Got long winded there didn’t I?

    1. You are authentic. I mean that. You, too, see what a bizarre call this is this time out. Your other commonsense posts support this. I felt bad for many months thinking of not voting for the first time ever. Now, I am getting hardened to it. I simply cannot vote for either one…and live with myself. And if Hillary wins because of it or if Trump does…at least I stood by my principles and my misgivings. I have seen a stat that says 40% of the electorate wishes for diff choices. If wishes were horses…etc. I can see myself tossing the whole ballot (I vote at home)–but I do want to vote for McCain, so won’t (duck!). Sad all this–for me anyhow.

      1. 40% of spouses want a new one…. give me a free steak and I will want chicken…. We poll people to ask them how ‘crappy’ something is and then we act surprised when the polling shows that people think that something is ‘crappy’.

        We are rarely satisfied…. Why do men with gorgeous wives cheat? They want something else… human nature — when we are not worried about basic survival — make us generally a bunch of ‘grass is greener’ folks.

        40% seems low.

      2. Thank you for the complement, but sometimes I feel out of my league here. Some great writers here
        Maybe if I had paid closer attention in English composition class, I wouldn’t feel that way.
        Don’t tell anyone.

  7. God help us all if Trump is elected president! He is not as smart as he states, “can’t spell” has no plans that he can explain to America “only his pipe dream about a wall that Mexico will pay for,”FAT CHANCE” call Clinton a cheater while the world knows what he did to his first two wives and is still doing, parading around with Marla Maples or asking women to change into a bathing suit and then dating her. I believe He’ll find a number four, while Clinton has been married once, to the same woman. Trump is a low life who should crawl back to the cave he escaped from. Ret. new York Detective first grade W.B. Arrington

    1. Clinton married once buy cheated how many times and over the course of how many years.
      He didn’t have to remarry, just choose another flavor of the month…or week.

      1. There’s a lot choose on the low rent menu of either side. A serial cheater…in a business marriage to get power…or a serial marrier and cheater in a rush to get power… Might as well flip a coin…So this brings us back to which one could the Congress thwart the easiest? Have Trump’s bribes to members worn off…Would Ryan hold Hillary in check…that’s the call…

        1. The current political scene reminds me of Mark Twain’s quote. “Politics is the last refuge of a scoundrel”
          Has it always been that way?
          Sheesh, time for a little toddy.

  8. Heck, Shrillary the crook cannot even beat the old hippie Socialist. If it wasn’t for the super delegates, she would be toast.
    The DNC should be more worried about THEIR candidate than the RNC.

  9. I have read the desperate hopes of republicans who are so afraid of Hillary, soon to be the first woman president of this great land,stolen by Europeans from the noble tribes of Native Americans I am of Cherokee heritage and Trump is a classic example of what his Nazi and KKK friends represent. If he and his pal, Putin don’t create a world order, the last thing we see or won’t see, will be the end of every creation, dissolving into a white flash and then…….

    1. Never fear! That portion of the ‘Apprentice POTUS’ will end up on the cutting room floor, and he will order new script writers. How can we lose?

    2. Did all the tribes act nobly? Didn’t some of the tribes take the land from others, I ask knowingly?

      Hold what you got, take or be taken…. 3 choices and with Trump I like the choices.

    3. All right. You and your,um, family can have everything I own.
      I’ll leave the mortgage payment book on the dining room table, the car payment notice there, too. Oh, the car is making a funny noise, so you might want to have that checked. The AC is a little tempremental, but a new compressor will take care of that.
      All the dishware, pots/pans, and furniture is well used, but serviceable.
      I’ll be heading ‘home’ to , um, well, I don’t know. All four grandparents were from different nations, so maybe I’ll just throw a dart at a world map.
      Happy now?

      1. I have thought of leaving–my daughter even asked should we leave? But I am too broke and crippled up. So I just have a dull ache…I guess that’s left when hope leaves.

        1. Star, just curious – where would you like to go?
          Canada? Taxes there are exorbitant due to government controlled healthcare.
          I know people who are relocating to Panama. The weather there…hot and humid.
          I know of people who will relocate to New Zealand by years end. (Have heard that is Frank Luntz’ new home place). Don’t know much about New Zealand.
          I do know that all countries have some kind of visa requirements for foreigners.

    4. I have Cherokee friends who are ardent Trump supporters. I love in an area populated by Cherokees. Some Cherokees are capitalists too.
      No offense to you, sir.

    5. OMG. Still harping on the “great land,stolen by Europeans from the noble tribes of Native Americans”? Want reparations or what? No wonder you support Shrillary.

  10. Yes, no doubt six months of constant replay of the stupidity uttered by the 13-year-old tween girl bitch Dawnie Frumples will make him even more invincible. Even though it’s inevitable, I believe in a choice between Democrat and Democrat-lite, so I guess Libertarian it is…

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