In the history of mankind, many republics have risen, have flourished for a less or greater time, and then have fallen because their citizens lost the power of governing themselves and thereby of governing their state. TR


Victory for Obama? Not so Fast

Washington and the press tend to focus on the moment and act as if the moment will continue unchanged, forever.

The Republican Party at a nadir in the polls. Conservative House and Senate lawmakers sent to Washington to change Washington supposedly look like fools for  . . . trying to change Washington. The Washington establishment is proclaiming a “victory” for President Obama in the shutdown battle.

But the judgement that Obama has “won” assumes that the game is over. And the game is not over.

I wrote Wednesday that in fact the Tea Party was victorious in this battle, in part because its leaders in Congress had succeeded in making a stand against Obamacare and making it clear that conservatives oppose a vast entitlement that will fail.

Therefore, it only stands to reason that a desperate attempt to stop Obamacare will begin to look like a pretty good idea to the public should the program become the catastrophe conservatives are predicting.

The problem for the “victorious” Obama is that the evidence is already coming in that conservatives stood on the correct side of history.

That the Obama website doesn’t work is not just a technical problem. It showcases the impossibility of putting the government in charge of what is an imperfect, but for most people a relatively decently working, health care system. It’s only the beginning of the problems we will see as Uncle Sam tries to regulate and deliver your health care.

There are other ways to help the uninsured without putting the feds in charge of everything. We responded to a bad wound with a body cast. And Americans are about to begin understanding that.

In the short term, this is about to get personal. Because of the way the law works, the uninsured will have until February 15, 2014 to be all signed up for a plan or face a fine from the federal government.

But there is a real possibility that the system will not be fixed in time to get everyone insurance. Even if fixed, a certain percentage of people, having tried and failed a few times, will just give up. And then they’ll get their notice from the IRS that they must personally pay for the government’s incompetence.

What’s more, Obamacare needs about 7 million people to sign up – including 2.7 million health young adults – in order to put enough cash into the system to fund the cost of insuring older and sicker beneficiaries. With every passing day, the likelihood of that decreases.

This is not the end, but the beginning of a very serious game. The very credibility of Obama and the Democrats’ big government philosophy is at stake. If Obamacare fails, the nation may begin to frown on government in a way it hasn’t since the late 1970s, the era that ushered in Ronald Reagan.

With Obamacare, Democrats may finally have gone too far. It’s dissolution would mark Obama and his ideology as a failure.

And the “extreme” tactics of House and Senate conservatives will be vindicated.

41 thoughts on “Victory for Obama? Not so Fast”

    1. There’s our list of whom to primary next year and in 2016. I’m surprised by the number of those who voted nay. Cornyn must have seen the light, the handwriting on the wall, whatever.

      1. Cornyn didn’t change his spots. Lots of other Republican turncoats had to take their turn running the gauntlet, so he got a reprieve from the cryptkeeper to vote no this time around.

    2. I’m starting to have second thoughts about Liz Cheney, and I hope people in WY are starting to have second thoughts about Barasso.

  1. The MSM is giddy this morning with the prospects of the Republicans now losing the House next year and Barry & The Dems having free reign. It’s nauseating.

        1. They’ve sneaked in a little thing on the next debit ceiling negotiations: 2/3s of the Congress will be needed to fight him on it. Now, budget cuts are a whole different story–so far.

  2. Again, an excellent article, Keith. Now the White House certainly owns the mess. I think their “victory”, was a Pyrrhic victory. They have gone too far. They will very soon get ” the morning after” blues….
    Chinas rating institute Dagong just downgraded the US from A to A-. According to Zero Hedge, no American rating institute will dare to do it after the DoJ witch hunt when S&P downgraded before the election.

    1. Right you are. And the Chinese gave as their reasoning that the US does not take in enough income to balance expenditure. The stock market today is already having the morning after blues.

  3. What happens to the people who want to “sign up” for healthcare but lack a computer? You know there will be some people out there crying FOUL when they get hit with the Obamacare tax in 2014. The same folks that got free phones will claim they cannot sign up because the gov’t needs to give them a laptop first.

    Trust me, that argument is on the horizon….


  4. I know you are right about this. The question is, will it matter? Or will the story be so managed that the failure will become the fault of the Tea Party, and the only solution available still more government control in the form of single payer. I think the latter is more likely, but will work like mad for the former.

  5. The best thing that could happen would be a straight up or down on the Vitter Amendment if he get it done. This is not about merit – but to really showcase exemptions, subsidies and equal application of the law. And to tag each Congresscritter with their vote.

    But I think Obama will go for a one year delay. This is not a go down with the ship kind of guy. Right now the dates tied to Obamacare are reclines and we all know how the royal toes will never be ruby stained.
    Not only is Obama a thin skinned narcissist, he is a coward.

    And the one year delay be the fault of the Republicans being battered by the extremist Tea Party led by that awful Ted Cruz.

    2 cents.

    1. Grace, I don’t understand how the Vitter amendment and the one year delay on the individual mandate will come up again. They won’t on the next debt ceiling negotiations because hidden within what they just passed, Congress will be required to have a 2/3s majority vote to block anything Obama proposes. That’s the real sellout here.

      1. I am not sure about the mechanics of the Vitter Amendment or if it is even doable. But I am “hopeful”. So I guess you could hope for my hope.

        As for the delay. I think that will come directly from our Ruler. He changes this “law of the land” at will. If it looks like a huge fail I think he will extend a delay.

        And I agree that 2/3 on debt limit is bad. Some say – like Napolitano – that it is unconstitutional. But even if it is – that is not a factor in today’s Amerika.

        1. Barry being Barry, He will come out with some magnanimous speech declaring the delay for the good of the people (since he is so in touch with his commoners). Media will spin it like he’s a genius and the LIV’s will swoon.

          One bit of pleasure comes in thinking they are crapping in their pants over the completely botched rollout and low enrollment numbers although we all know they will lie when the announce the total at the end of the month.

          Good thing the House will initiate an investigation into the validity and expose the truth…….”What ma, time to wake up?”

  6. “Congratulations, Barry! You won the shutdown! Johnny, tell him what he’s won!”

    “You’ve won…a LAAAAAME DUCK PRESIDENCY! That’s right, Barack, you’ve won a House of Representatives that will now do all it can to oppose you from here to the mid-terms! But that’s not all! You’ve won a public that’s getting Obama fatigue, and which isn’t going to support you the way it once did! And if you think that’s awesome, wait until they start getting their health care bills! But wait! There’s more! How about a fired-up conservative base that is going to turn out in droves to send rock-solid conservatives to Congress! You’ll say good-bye to Majority Leader Harry Reid, and hello to a Republican Senate, and a House that’s going to make this one look like bleeding-hearts! It’s a terrific lame duck presidency, courtesy of Washington Squares!”

  7. Saw a small part of The Angry Caliph’s speech today, reviling Tea Partiers for daring to oppose him. He then set it up so he can blame them for Obamacare pulling the wheels off employment by saying things like “CEOs I talked to say they put off hiring for the next 6 months because of the uncertainty caused by Congress shutting down government”. Sorry, but I really couldn’t get past there, as I was in a public place and it wasn’t my TV, so there would have been some legal problems if I threw things at it…

    Anyway, I’m sure Obamanistas everywhere took spleen from little nuggets like that. Now they can blame Republicans for everything just like good Obama pal Fidel Castro blamed the American embargo for everything wrong with HIS Socialist experiment. Again, Obama isn’t new, and since any normal human being with any historical knowledge can see how Obama’s going to attack next, I can only assume the failure of the Republican leadership to be able to effectively counter for tired attacks from the ’70s is because they don’t WANT to. Obama’s not stupid, but neither is McConnell and Boehner. If they don’t react to moves telegraphed over the last 40 years, then I can only assume that they’re Okeydokie with Obama’s power grab, rewriting of the limits of Presidential powers, destruction of the economy, and Armageddon for our heath system. “Why” is a question that can be answered only in their own shriveled souls; but the fact is, they seemed more interested in cannibalism than victory from the get-go, and gleefully attacked those few who actually stood up for the rule of law.

    Also, someone REALLY needs to get with John McCain and give him the short course on what happened when Arlen Specter went over to the dark side – for his own sake. That didn’t turn out well for Arlen, and my guess is that Johnny has a date with the bus wheels once he’s served his purpose as well. No, he hasn’t gone as far as CALLING himself a D yet, but given his recent behavior he may as well caucus with them, seeing as how he’s become The Mouth of Sauron any time The Spite House wants to send those uppity Tea Paritiers a message…

    LIV’s will fall for it. As always. Alinsky tactics are quite effetive, espeically if you are playing to people’s prejudices anyway…

    “Alinsky taught that the organizer’s first task was to make people feel that they were wise enough to diagnose their own problems, find their own solutions, and determine their own destinies. The organizer, said Alinsky, must exploit the fact that “[m]illions of people feel deep down in their hearts that there is no place for them, that they do not ‘count.’” To exploit this state of affairs effectively, Alinsky explained, the organizer must employ such techniques as the artful use of “loaded questions designed to elicit particular responses and to steer the organization’s decision-making process in the direction which the organizer prefers.”

    Well, whatever ELSE he’s done, Obama certainly did THAT well.

    We don’t need mid-terms. We need a Government enema to flush out the REALLY bad stuff that just sticks to the inside of the Body Politic WAY too long. It’s not enough to sweep out D’s, we need to excise the RINO cancer at the primaries as well. We’re not getting anywhere with the “go along and maybe he won’t hurt us” crowd anyway; we may as well just vote ourselves vassals of Obama as keep these folks that just rubber-stamp for him anyway. The best purpose served here, by this debate, is it gave us a LIST of the trash that needs to go to the curb when the Republican house gets cleaned this election season. This is The Surrender Caucus, as Sean Hannity so aptly puts it, and it serves no purpose other than to make Obama look powerful. He really wasn’t, you know. Some folks ALMOST saw through The Emperor’s clothing this time; then the “Republican Leadership” just shouted down anyone who DARED point it out.

    It should be pretty easy to unseat the RINOs in primaries, though, seeing as how they cut and run when actually confronted even faster than President Obama does when Putin raises his voice…

    Those who won’t stand for rule of law NOW, won’t stand for it EVER. It’s time for them to GO. Only then can we try to salvage something of our defiled Nation.

    1. As one of the pathetic inhabitants of fly-over country who live their lives in different time zones than our betters in Washington, I didn’t watch the President’s victory speech. What snippets were shown on TV seemed to be less victory-happy and just more nastiness.

      Unlike the sport teams and professional players that MrO claims to love, he chose to flail against his opponents for daring to try to “win”, rather than give them a hand-shake for a fight well fought.
      MrO is not just a sore loser, he’s also a sore winner.

      1. He just doesn’t seem to have any manners. About 15 yrs ago, I decided I hated being told “I told you so” so much, I would never say it again. And I don’t. Sometimes I let people “see” that I was right–but they have to come to it on their own. I will not say those words. Well, he needs to just cut out these snide statements–they make him look petty and mean. Not becoming. Not polite.

  8. Of course MrObama won, the MSM says he did.
    Who did he beat in this contest; he beat opponents of fiscal sanity, people who know that government run insurance programs can’t work and are harming our economy, and radical extremists who don’t seem to understand how things are done there in DC.
    The federal government won, too. Who did they beat; the very public they pretend to serve, anyone without the authority to arrest, detain, or cause bodily harm to another American, and those who don’t have a well-funded lobbyist to protect their interests.

    Well then, who lost.
    The losers are the Americans who are without health insurance because of the mandates of the ACA, and who will not be able to purchase health insurance because the ACA is flawed.
    The public lost when they discovered that things called “national parks” don’t mean they are for Americans to enjoy, but are privileges that the federal government owns and decides who or when the taxpayers get to enjoy those privileges.
    Last, but by no means the least of losers, is the ever-shrinking pool of working, tax-paying Americans who will subsidize a bloated government that works against the interests of every citizen.

  9. While I admire your enthusiasm and hope Keith, the difference is Renaldus Magnus wasn’t dealing with a government debt that could cause the collapse of the world’s economy at any time… just some pesky russians with a-bombs.

    It’s an entirely different type of revolution to get this mess sorted out.

  10. If there are 46 million Americans without Health Insurance, why only 7 million in 2014, after passing ACA in 2010 – over 3 years later and only one out of 7 uninsured?

  11. Pingback: Victory for Obama? Not so Fast | Grumpy Opinions

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  13. Please explain how undermining and circumventing the Constitution based on false information about a Bill (not clear you’ve read the ACA based on your rhetoric) is “winning” for the Tea Party?

    Also, please explain how causing $24 billion in lost economic activity (S&P), and wasting $60 million on 45 votes to nowhere to defund a Bill the House had no authority to defund (without a 2/3rds majority)?

    Lastly, the Tea Party voted to default on the nations debt. Please explain how this is a “win” for a given party, much less, the domestic, or international economy.

    Please be specific, cite the Bill, CBO/CRS reports, reputable international economic sources, and the Constitution. Ground your assertions on known facts you can cite from reputable sources.

    No more opinion, based on false assertions, passed off as fact. And no more Fortune Telling and passing your visions off as fact. (ACA will fail, yet Medicare and Social Security haven’t)


  14. Not only will the Tea Party and Senators Cruz and Lee be vindicated because of Obamacare’s failures, but I believe President Obama’s image was considerably tarnished by the punitive actions taken by various Executive Branch Departments under White House direction during the shutdown. The most damaging were (l) NIH’s heartless refusal to treat children with cancer; (2) the DOD cruelly refusing to pay military families to meet and bury their loved ones killed in action; and (3) the National Park’s refusing to allow the WW II veterans to enter the open-air WW II memorial.

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