In the history of mankind, many republics have risen, have flourished for a less or greater time, and then have fallen because their citizens lost the power of governing themselves and thereby of governing their state. TR


The New Math

Old Math: Romney has to win Ohio to be elected president.

New Math: Romney has to win Ohio, or he can be elected by taking Wisconsin and New Hampshire, or by winning in Minnesota.

The news is that those three states – Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Minnesota – all once viewed as likely for Obama, are all now tossups. It’s part of a potentially tectonic shift I wrote about a few days ago that predicts a likely Romney win and possibly a minor landslide.

That’s why Obama is campaigning in New Hampshire today. His campaign gets the new math.

The math has always assumed Romney winning Florida, North Carolina, and probably Virginia as well. Well, North Carolina is long gone for Obama, Florida is probably gone too, and Virginia is probably on the way to Romney. Ohio remains a tossup, though the early voting there is far more favorable to Republicans than it was four years ago, when Obama won the state by 4.6 points.

The latest national tracking polls by Rasmussen and Gallup put Romney up by 50-46 percent and 51-46 percent respectively. Gallup also has Obama’s approval rating evaporating, down from above 50 percent to 46 percent, three below his disapproval rating of 49 percent.

37 thoughts on “The New Math”

  1. NH yes, Wisconsin maybe. but no way is Romney winning Minnesota. wasn’t it the only state to go for Dukakis (or McGovern)? isn’t Al Franken their senator? wasn’t Jesse Ventura their governor at one time?

    1. Anything is possible, rulierose. Don’t forget Wisconsin was the birthplace of progressivism. Gov. Scott Walker is living proof that a conservative Republican can win a recall election in a traditionally leftist state. Heck, Romney is even getting close in Pennsylvania if you can imagine that.

  2. Obama has made the economy worse than it was when he took office, he is the head of a monstrous cover up in Libya, he is sophomoric in his use of Big Bird, Binders, sex themed campaign ads, words like Romnesia, and calling people bullshi**ers. Oh, and he has gaffe prone Joe Biden out campaigning for him.
    What’s not to like?

  3. Keith, does the new math take into consideration all the voter fraud and election tampering? What about the 2M Dreamers and their famlies who will vote for Obama to ensure a full amnesty with his second term. Every illegal in the country has a (fake) driver’s license. Then we have the teeny bopper HS seniors and college morons who are being registered and whisked off to the polls. 18M young people have reached voting age since the 2008 election – a fertile field for the Obamas. This election will be won by the ground forces, and get out the (illegal) vote is Obama’s specialty.

    Obama is also working the election on several Continents. I hate to say it, but I am praying for the best, but preparing for the worst. One thing we know for sure is Obama is the most corrupt individual ever to step foot into politics.

    1. If Obama succeeds in stealing the election, we have a great recourse.


      Trustworthy CPA firms in key states conduct certified audits before the Inauguration.

  4. All this chicken counting and no hatchlings present! The only math that counts hopefully will be the night of November 6th when astute voters will realize that the last four years was just a bad dream, Joe Biden was a doofus and Obama lights up a joint while filling out a job application to be the regional sales manager for TelePrompter Industries.

  5. I’ll see your Wisconsin and Minnesota (10 + 10) and raise you Pa. with 21 electoral votes.

    I live outside the ring of fire, in suburban Philadelphia and I haven’t seen any Obama signs and can count on one hand the number of 2012 car stickers. The few bumper stickers I have seen have been parked in the Costco parking lot. There are quite a few Dems in my building and what I have noticed – they are not singing kumbaya praises for BHO – for the most part they look like a deer in headlights and nervous and not a one of them is trapsing around the lobby wearing a ‘hope n’ change’ or ‘forward’ button. I, of course, have a very nice ‘Obama-Oy Vey’ button that is pinned to my handbag, which I gleefully wear to annoy the sh*t out of them.

      1. Glad you enjoyed Just2old. I’ve been on a subdued rant and could fill this blog with “don’t get mad – get even” stunts over the past few months. Just ask me and I’ll share my favorite. ; )

        p.s. Just got an urgent DNC spam-mail begging for $5.00 – it was entitled …drum roll….”This is dangerous” and opened with the following AND what I would call a threat!

        Look — Barack and I need you.

        We recently found out that, as we head into the final push, Mitt Romney and the Republicans have $45 million more in the bank than we do.

        That’s a problem, folks. In a race that’s as close as they come — and with Election Day almost here — we’re not willing to lose this in the end.

        1. You should have sent it back with a note in the space provided for comments, “You are going to lose, I am voting for Romney.” Bet you don’t get anymore begging letter after that!

          1. FL – you can’t imagine some of the responses I’ve sent in the past. I am only surprised that there hasn’t been a knock on my door. They’re a glutton for punishment and I am more than happy to serve them another dish.

          1. Just2, since you asked. Here’s the story. Following the DNC convention and the 3x a charm vote for G-d and Jerusalem, I sent an email to a neighbor (full dislcosure here) I knew she was an Obama voter and Jewish to add insult to injury. I politely asked her wasn’t she concerned that the DNC couldn’t agree that a) there is G-d and b) Jerusalem. Needless to say, it sent the old bitty (she even older than I am) into a dirther and started to berate Romney (note how she switched the topic from DNC to Romney – I was so annoyed, I immediately hung a small and tasteful 2×4 printout of a chair on my front door. Since this is condo living, I had no idea if it was “legal” or not. It was just my way of saying Hi, and up yours in case she passed by. Lo and behold, she must have passed by because I got an email with a warning that only wreaths with flower arrangements were permitted by condo rules and regs and “it would be a shame if someone reported me and I got a fine”. I politely thanked her and said, “oh, how nice of you to let me know particularly during this tough economic times.” Next day, I hung a beautiful flower decoration in a window box type of style and planted a “CHAIR” in the window box (doll house size).
            We are no longer exchanging emails and I haven’t stopped laughing.

    1. Good to hear. I’ve been wondering about Philly. The press plays up the binary star system that is Philly and Pittsburgh as if it were a black hole sucking all conservatism out of the universe. Not much to see here in upstate ny except yard signs for locals and some RR signs…very few Obama stickers or signs unlike last time.

      1. Sadie/GG, great stuff! Here in southern suburban NY the Obama/Biden things are subdued as well. Mostly local election activity with the signs, billboards, etc. Lots of talk privately about voting for R&R but people seem afraid to say it publicly. One thing that does concern me is many of my Jewish friends still support Obama. I ask them nicely why they feel that way and they seldom answer me, except to say “We do not think alike politically, Rick”. Its a mystery to me.

        1. A couple of comments to Rick and Guillermo

          Rick – Just ask your Jewish friends, if they’re more the “golden calf” type of worshippers or Ten Commandments. That should get them thinking. Tell’em Sadie said to ask. ; )

          Guillermo – Good to hear that upstate NY is similar to suburban Philly. I remember Pa. once described as Philly/Pittsburgh and Alabama in between.Let’s hope it’s Nobama now.

          1. Sadie, too funny as always. Readng your other posts and with a nod to WNY_ROC someday one of us will have to explain the story behind “how nice…how very very nice” for your condo neighbors.

  6. Anyone feeling the storm coverage along the eastern seaboard is another Obama overly exagerated distraction from the issues at hand? National Weather Service is controlled by the Feds, The Weather Channel is owned by NBC/Comcast — enough said. Still not a mention on NBC tonight about Benghazi and Petreaus’s remarks.

    1. Glad I’m not the only one thinking that. I’m in North Carolina and expected the worst. It’s windy and raining some, but it’s sure not like all the TV hype.

    2. They are hoping Benghazi goes away. We will not forget. Unlike the fraud in chief, the American people will not forget what Tyrone Woods and Glen Doehrty sacrificed to save others at the Benghazi embassy. Americans don’t abandon their soldiers on the battlefield, and Obama will pay dearly at the ballot box for doing just that.

  7. Don’t count out Pa. Granted Philly is dark blue but Pittsburgh isn’t nearly as union controlled as it once was. In central Pa. (where I live) we’re very conservative. 2010 we elected a republican Gov. and Senator. The state house and senate are controlled by the republicans. Gov. Romney has a real shot at Pa.

  8. Isn’t it generally true that the job approval rating is a surrogate for the popular vote?

    Fun with Maps:

    If we punt on PA then we need WI and leaving all others more or less as they appear, it may be that NH decides the election.

  9. Pingback: Iowa - Almost Back From The Snake Pit — Hillary Is 44

    1. And Abu Hamza al-Masri, who arrived in the US from the UK less than 3 weeks ago is getting new prosthetics. Seems like the court didn’t want him appearing with his “hooks” – whatever the hell that means. Brits had this POS for 8 years in prison and their NHS didn’t give him new “paws” – so why are we footing the bill?

  10. I can tell you that I was in Virginia two weeks ago… and Romney yard signs outnumbered Obama ones at least 20-1. Knowing the state was a toss-up, I paid attention… and couldn’t believe what I saw. The support for Romney was amazing.

  11. This campaign will be won by speed and momentum. Once it’s established, static defenses crumble. That’s why Romney will take Wisconsin and why he’s suddenly a threat in Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Forget Ohio. Endless bombardment and attacks by both sides have turned it into the Somme of the 2012 election: a muddy, bloody wasteland with no victors and no contribution to victory for either side.

  12. Actually, one thing that is encouraging is that the left seems to now be getting blame-for-racist-Republicans ready because they are anticipating an Obama defeat! Check out yesterday’s Doonesbury…

    The host starts with the thesis that there has NEVER been ANY “vote impersonation” fraud EVER, to which the Republican (the character is named “Jimmy Crow”, geddit?) responds that Republicans know that, but can’t trust protected groups to vote the right way. The host then opines that voter ID laws are tatamount to vote supression (talk about unproven!) and that a pro-Romney outcome will be automatically de-legitimized as a result. The two characters then proceed to discuss the riots that will ensue.

    Read between the lines. Gary Trudeau is displaying some apprehension that Obama can actually (gasp!) lose, and is preparing the ground work for blaming racism (and a few other unproven “isms”), and apparently calling for riots in the bargain!

    In my paper, this is in the “funnies” section. While I agree to this placement in that it’s not to be taken seriously, I do object to pouring this poison onto kids with their Sunday comics! It’s funny, alright, but more of a funny/sad that most children won’t get, and don’t need to be exposed to.

    Nor is he the only one. Check out this bluster from the HuffPo!,housing-crisis

    Don’t have time? Let me summarize: Obama is great, but Republicans caused problems and blamed it on Obama, who – if he has a weakness – is too fair and tries to work with Republicans too much! Because of this, despite two “fine” debate performances (calling the “performances” is probably the most truth you’ll ever get from a Dem!), Obama continues to languish. Again, if Obama loses, its because Republicans are evil and everyone else is too stupid to recognize the Messiah as the hero he is!

    In no way is it Obama’s fault. Ever.

    Take heart! Romney’s momentum is becoming so strong, even echo chamber liberals are beginning to feel the floor rumbling…

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