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Tag Archives: polls

Poll: Stormy Affair Fails to Rain on Trump’s Poll Numbers

Okay, I know, enough with the “stormy” puns. Especially bad ones like the one above. But I couldn’t resist, okay?

From Politico:

Voters believe adult-film actress Stormy Daniels.

They believe her claim that she and Donald Trump had sex before he ran for president, and that Trump has been unfaithful to his wife. Only a third think the president is honest. More than half think he has low morals.

But a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, conducted after Daniels’ appearance on “60 Minutes” this weekend, suggests that despite that litany of sins, the Daniels revelations are unlikely to significantly alter Trump’s political standing.

The president’s approval rating — 42 percent in this week’s poll — remains largely unchanged from 44 percent last week. Fewer voters support beginning impeachment proceedings against Trump than last year. And voters are split on whether Trump should even answer Daniels’ assertions at all.

Taken together, the data suggest Trump’s past behavior with women is already known among voters — and many are willing to overlook it.

That’s exactly right. It’s the same thing that happened with Bill Clinton. Republicans assumed they had a political coup with the Monica Lewinsky case, which they assumed would finally disgust Americans and turn voters against him. Instead, as the impeachment proceedings loomed in November 1998, Democrats picked up five seats in the House.

Voters have either made their peace with Donald Trump or not, and they don’t need new information to understand who he is, even if Washington journalists fall into a frenzy over every salacious detail that emerges about his past.

GOP Leads Generic Ballot; Trump Approval at Ten-Month High

Well, you won’t hear the press making a big deal about any of this. The thought that Republicans might retain control of both houses of Congress is too much to bear. And the notion that Trump’s approval rating is headed toward 50 percent – and is equal to his disapproval rating – just seems impossible when his approval among the press corps is about three percent.

But Politico took the poll, so Politic did write the story:

Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.

Voters are split almost evenly along party lines. Democratic voters break for their party, 85 percent to 5 percent, while Republicans similarly favor the GOP, 84 percent to 8 percent. Among independent voters, 26 percent would vote for the Democrat, 25 percent for the Republican and nearly half, 49 percent, are undecided.

The GOP’s 1-point advantage comes after three months of tracking in which Democrats maintained a lead ranging between 2 and 10 points on the generic ballot. That has been generally smaller than the party’s lead in other public surveys: The most recent RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats ahead by 7 points on the generic ballot, though that’s down from a high of 13 points late last year.

The new year has also produced a Trump polling bump. In the new poll, 47 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while the same percentage disapprove.

Note the line I’ve highlighted suggesting this poll is an outlier. I don’t think I’ve seen too many publications touting other polls above their own.

But the news is not good.

Misleading Poll Suggested Voters Didn’t Blame Democrats for Shutdown

Many newspapers reported information that gave comfort to Democrats in their confrontation with Republicans over shutting down the government, touting a poll that showed a combined 48 percent of voters blamed either Trump or Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, while only 35 percent blamed Democrats.

Breaking it down, 34 percent blamed Trump, 15 percent blamed congressional Republicans, and 35 percent blamed Democrats. Yes, 34 and 15 add up to 49 percent, not 48 percent – I assume we are either dealing with numbers being rounded or English majors who can’t do math.

Here’s the problem, and it’s one that should have been evident to unbiased pollsters. Voters are being given three choices, not two. That makes it less likely that they are going to choose any one of the three, whatever the choice or question. And so fewer than might have chose Democrats as being the ones to blame than Trump or Republicans – who should have been grouped together in the poll since they are taking the same stance on the issue. That is, it should have been an “either/or” question, not “choose one of the three.”

In fact, that’s exactly what Gallup did back in 2011 when Congress and the president, then Barack Obama, were facing a government shutdown. Gallup properly combined Obama and the Democrats.

Were the question framed properly in the most recent poll, which was done over the weekend, the result might still have given Democrats an edge, but it might not have. That is suggested by another question in the poll, which I haven’t seen mentioned, that asked voters who was to blame for the failure to pass a spending bill that caused the shutdown. In that case, voters were given only two choices: Republicans in the Senate or Democrats in the Senate. Thirty-nine percent blamed Democrats, and 37 percent blamed Republicans.

Two Thirds of Americans Don’t Believe Trump Will Build the Wall

Sixty seven percent of Americans believe President Trump will not keep his promise to build a wall with Mexico to keep out illegal entrants, but a majority, 53 percent, think he will deport millions of illegal immigrants, according to a new Bloomberg poll. The poll also finds that 54 percent think Trump will keep his… Continue Reading

New Poll Shows Vast Support for Trump Travel Ban

Well, this certainly contradicts the normal media narrative. A new poll by Politico indicates that American are not ready become a vast sanctuary city for refuguees from countries where terrorists abound. According to Politico: After months of litigation and controversy, six-in-10 voters back the ban — and the survey suggests the actual policy may be… Continue Reading

Trump Leads in Average of National Polls Released Tuesday

Four national tracking polls have been released so far Tuesday. Average them out, and you get a one-point lead for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. Mrs. Clinton has crashed in the ABC/Washington Post poll, which just last week had her up by 12 points but which today shows a one-point lead for Trump. The LA… Continue Reading

GOP Insiders: Polls Don’t Capture Trump’s Support

More than seven-in-10 GOP insiders in battleground states say the polls understate Donald Trump’s support because voters don’t want to admit to pollsters that they support him, according to Politico. Politico is not going to be talking mainly to pro-Trump enthusiasts. It would be surveying seasoned Republican operatives with knowledge of their states. Lots of… Continue Reading

Trump Ahead of Cruz in Indiana

The first statewide poll of the presidential primaries in Indiana gives Trump an edge over Ted Cruz. Indiana is a crucial state because it is one of the few major states remaining where Cruz can snatch significant numbers of delegates from Trump. According to WTHR: The WTHR/HPI Indiana Poll has Trump with a 6-point lead… Continue Reading

Trump Backers: If Donald Loses, Bolt the GOP

Sixty three percent of Donald Trump’s GOP supporters say that if he earns the most delegates in the primaries but fails to secure the Republican nomination in Cleveland, he should run as an independent or a third-party candidate, according to a newly released CBS poll. Among all Republicans, a third think he should run on his… Continue Reading