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The Trump-Clinton Poll that Matters: New Jersey

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton in two national polls out today, winning 45 percent to 42 percent in a Fox News poll and 42 percent to 37 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey.

But that’s not the big story. What’s really interesting is that Clinton only beats Trump by seven points in deep blue New Jersey, 45 percent to 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac. Why is this significant? Because President Obama beat Mitt Romney by 18 points in New Jersey.


The poll demonstrates pretty conclusively that Trump is going to bring Democratic-leaning states into play, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Pennsylvania in particular — and its 20 electoral votes — is going to be a key battleground, where it was once assumed Democratic.

The Fox national poll shows Clintons negatives rising, Trump’s falling, suggesting his recent efforts to appear normal are paying off:

A record 61 percent have a negative view of the likely Democratic nominee, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday. That’s up from 58 percent in March.

Fifty-six percent have an unfavorable view of Trump — though that’s actually good news for Donald. Because it was 65 percent two months ago (that was a record high).

Thirty-seven percent have a favorable opinion of Clinton, down two points from 39 percent in March, establishing a new low. The likely Republican nominee’s favorable jumped over the same time period: 41 percent view Trump positively, up from 31 percent in March.

Democrats who are overconfident are going to find, again, that such thinking is a bad idea where Hillary is concerned. And conservatives who think they can sit this one out while Trump loses and try again in four years are deceiving themselves.

Trump Ahead of Cruz in Indiana

The first statewide poll of the presidential primaries in Indiana gives Trump an edge over Ted Cruz. Indiana is a crucial state because it is one of the few major states remaining where Cruz can snatch significant numbers of delegates from Trump.

According to WTHR:

The WTHR/HPI Indiana Poll has Trump with a 6-point lead over his closest challenger Ted Cruz. The poll indicates a record turnout will favor Trump over the other candidates.

The results prove just how pivotal Indiana’s primary race is going to be nationally.

Republican Presidential Primary

Donald Trump 37%
Ted  Cruz 31%
John Kasich 22%

When you drill down into the numbers into core Republicans, which we will do for you tonight on Eyewitness News, it makes this race a virtual tie between Trump and Cruz.

Poll || Trump Dominating California

According to Politico:

A new poll from Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies shows Donald Trump in a dominant position across the state.

The results, provided to POLITICO, show Trump leading statewide with 41 percent of the vote and Cruz trailing far behind with 23 percent. John Kasich is in third with 21 percent, and 15 percent of Republicans said they remain undecided.

California is worth 172 delegates when it votes on June 7 — with the winner of each of the state’s 53 congressional districts receiving three delegates. The statewide winner receives 13 delegates.

The Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies poll shows Trump winning in almost every corner of the state, from San Diego and Orange County to northern California and the Bay Area, though some regions have small sample sizes.

Meantime, a new poll of Pennsylvania Republicans released by Franklin and Marshall Thursday puts Trump at 40 percent, Cruz at 26 percent, and Kasich at 24 percent.

Trump Backers: If Donald Loses, Bolt the GOP

Sixty three percent of Donald Trump’s GOP supporters say that if he earns the most delegates in the primaries but fails to secure the Republican nomination in Cleveland, he should run as an independent or a third-party candidate, according to a newly released CBS poll. Among all Republicans, a third think he should run on his own.

The poll shows Trump’s margin nationally among Republicans over Sen. Ted Cruz narrowing, though he still is up double digits, with 42 percent supporting him compared to 29 percent for Cruz and 18 percent for Gov. John Kasich. But in a poll taken last month, Trump was ahead of Cruz by 20 points.

trump cruz

Though many seem to think that if only Kasich dropped out Cruz would be in a position to defeat Trump, the poll suggests that’s not the case. Without Kasich, Trump still leads Cruz by ten points, 48 percent to 38 percent, so the gain for Cruz is fairly negligible, at least nationally.

Six in ten Republicans still expect Trump to be the nominee, down from 77 percent in March, while 22 percent now think Cruz will win.

New Poll: Bush at Four Percent

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush scored just 4 percent of the vote in the latest national GOP survey, a catastrophically low number that is sure to raise grave concern among the establishment donors who have invested millions in his success for the 2016 presidential race.

The poll, released Friday by the Pew Research Center, shows Bush slipping into sixth place behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is at 6 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Bush’s archrival for establishment backing, has twice Jeb’s support, with 8 percent. Rubio is tied with Fiorina, whose tally suggests the steam may have run out of the boomlet that accompanied her strong performance in last month’s GOP debate.


A GOP donor from the energy sector was less than charitable in his assessment of Bush’s campaign this week.

“No one wants another Bush,” said the donor, who asked to remain anonymous. “Hell, when will they get that through their heads?”

Despite numerous hopeful stories in the mean that Donald Trump’s mediocre debate showing had at last inaugurated his decline, the billionaire real estate developer remains well ahead of the field, logging a solid 25 percent, 9 points ahead of Ben Carson’s 16 percent.

Even though he has not yet unleashed his massive advertising war chest against his rivals, Bush — whose 4 percent ties him with “don’t know” — surely did not expect to be where he is at this point. He was long presumed to be the man to beat, but his inability to show much spark or forcefulness on the campaign trail has given Republicans pause.

Meanwhile, he has failed to address the average Republican’s concern about such matters as trade and immigration, leaving the field open for Trump to seize those issues and run away with the base.

Unlike a few other candidates, Bush has so far declined to release his fundraising totals for the third quarter of the year. If those come in lower than expected, the news could further diminish his standing and cause even more donors to consider sending their money to another establishment figure like Rubio.

In the poll, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — strong contenders in the “next to drop out” contest — each received 2 percent. Paul will reportedly reveal that he raised a meager $2.5 million, a tumultuous drop for the $7 million he raised in the second quarter.

A version of the piece first appeared on PoliZette.

Poll: Trump Scores Twice as Much Support as Bush

Well, so much for the predictions by the Washington cognoscenti that Donald Trump’s comments about John McCain not being a hero – a flip aside which he basically corrected a few sentences later, BTW – would destroy his campaign.

What the prognosticators didn’t understand is that McCain is deeply unpopular among conservatives, even if his war service is obviously respected. And so Trump rolls on.

The latest national poll of Republicans, this one by Quinnipiac, has Trump with TWICE as much support as Jeb Bush, taking 20 percent of the vote compared to 10 percent for Bush. Between them, but closer to Bush, is Scott Walker, who garners 13 percent. No other Republican tops six percent.

On the other hand, Trump also tops the “Hell no” list, with 30 percent of Republicans saying they would never support him.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to weather the ceaseless cascade of damaging information about her, getting 55 percent of the Democratic vote compared with 17 percent for Bernie Sanders. But creeping up there is Joe Biden, who would get 13 percent of the vote without even campaigning.

At this point, you could make the case that Trump needs to start saying more terrible things about McCain.

Bush Tops Obama in Poll

No, not that Bush. The other one.

A new CNN poll finds that 52 percent of adults have a favorable view of George W. Bush, compared to 43 percent who see him unfavorably, a shift from previous polls that have shown Bush’s post-presidential approval well south of 50 percent.

Bush’s positives are a bit ahead of those of President Obama, who was viewed favorably by only 49 percent. But Obama was also rated unfavorably by 49 percent, six points worse than Bush.

Of course, this is not exactly and apples to apples comparison. Everyone, from presidents to college girlfriends and boyfriends, looks better in retrospect. But still, to be trailing the much-maligned Bush is quite an achievement for the sitting president.

Poll Shows Hillary in Trouble

The wheels coming off a Hillary Clinton campaign is not something unexpected. But this is very early for a meltdown. A new CBS poll is out showing only a quarter of Americans have a favorable opinion of Clinton and less than half think she is honest. These are not the numbers of a frontrunner. Watch… Continue Reading

Luntz: Collapse in Confidence in Government, Media

GOP polling guru Frank Luntz says the American people have lost confidence in all government institutions, including those designed to keep us healthy, as well as the media who report what those institutions are doing. Ironically, he finds that confidence in government was at its highest under a president who was trying to get government… Continue Reading

Todd: Obama Could Do “Jimmy Carter-Like Damage” to Democrats

NBC Meet the Press host Chuck Todd today suggested President Obama is on the cusp of throwing Democrats right back in the foreign policy disaster zone where they existed for at least a dozen years following Jimmy Carter’s feckless presidency. “He’s on the precipice of doing Jimmy Carter-like damage to the Democratic brand on foreign… Continue Reading

Poll: Unemployment the Nation’s Top Problem

Five years into President Obama’s administration and more than six years after the recession began, unemployment is the biggest concern troubling the minds of Americans, according to a new Gallup poll. Americans, it appears, are not buying the rosy White House line about all the jobs being created and all the “consecutive months” of job… Continue Reading