As of now, I am in control here, in the White House

Tag Archives: polls

Trump Leads in Average of National Polls Released Tuesday

Four national tracking polls have been released so far Tuesday. Average them out, and you get a one-point lead for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton.

Mrs. Clinton has crashed in the ABC/Washington Post poll, which just last week had her up by 12 points but which today shows a one-point lead for Trump. The LA Times/USC poll, which has for weeks by the most favorable to Trump, puts him up by four, though it had a slight lead for Clinton last week. The Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll, which was the most accurate in 2012, has Clinton ahead by one, and a Rasmussen Reports survey puts the race at a tie.

If anything, polls probably underestimate Trump’s support slightly, since some of his supporters might be bashful about admitted they back him.

Enthusiasm also seems to be with Trump. But don’t necessarily count on more of his supporters getting to the voting booth, since the Clinton campaign has a superior get-out-the-vote operation.

They’re going to need it, much more than they thought.

Other interesting polls released today come out of Virginia, which was supposed to be a lock for Hillary Clinton. A Washington Post poll has her up by six, while an Emerson University survey puts Clinton’s margin at only four points. But a Franklin & Marshall poll has Clinton leading by 11 points in Pennsylvania.

GOP Insiders: Polls Don’t Capture Trump’s Support

More than seven-in-10 GOP insiders in battleground states say the polls understate Donald Trump’s support because voters don’t want to admit to pollsters that they support him, according to Politico.

Politico is not going to be talking mainly to pro-Trump enthusiasts. It would be surveying seasoned Republican operatives with knowledge of their states. Lots of these people probably aren’t too keen on Trump, though they may want him to defeat Hillary because they loathe her even more.

And Politico tried to play down the implications. According to the piece:

With Trump falling behind in the majority of swing states, an overwhelming polling error may represent his best hope to win next month — and even that may not be enough. At the same time GOP insiders say there are “shy Trump” voters out there who aren’t showing up in the polls, a 59-percent majority still say Clinton would win their state if the election were held today.

“I’m not sure how big a factor it is, but there is definitely a ‘Bradley effect’ going on out there,” said a Virginia Republican, referring to the African-American mayor of Los Angeles who led in polls but lost unexpectedly in the 1982 California gubernatorial race. “I personally know many Republicans that won’t admit that they are voting for Trump. I don’t like admitting it myself. It won’t matter if Hillary is up more than 5 points, but we might be in for a surprise if Hillary’s lead is less than 5 points on Election Day.”

It seems to me that anyplace Trump is within two or three points is a likely win for him. And the polls seem to be moving his way.

The ABC News tracking poll— which surveys too many Democrats — had Clinton up by 12 a few days ago but now has her up by six. The L.A. Times poll, which had a tie, today has Trump up by two. Others have Clinton ahead by about one to nine points.

The next few days are critical for both candidates in terms of the polls. Clinton, through Wikileaks, is being pounded daily with negative publicity. People may start getting the sense that as queasy as they are about Trump, they are even more uncomfortable with her.

If the numbers start moving Trump’s way, he has a serious chance. If not, then short of some kind of insane bombshell leak, I don’t see what’s going to move them.

But either way, I don’t understand this prevailing theme, even among Republicans, that the election is over. It’s not.

The Trump-Clinton Poll that Matters: New Jersey

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton in two national polls out today, winning 45 percent to 42 percent in a Fox News poll and 42 percent to 37 percent in a Rasmussen Reports survey.

But that’s not the big story. What’s really interesting is that Clinton only beats Trump by seven points in deep blue New Jersey, 45 percent to 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac. Why is this significant? Because President Obama beat Mitt Romney by 18 points in New Jersey.

hillary-clinton-donald-trump

The poll demonstrates pretty conclusively that Trump is going to bring Democratic-leaning states into play, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Pennsylvania in particular — and its 20 electoral votes — is going to be a key battleground, where it was once assumed Democratic.

The Fox national poll shows Clintons negatives rising, Trump’s falling, suggesting his recent efforts to appear normal are paying off:

A record 61 percent have a negative view of the likely Democratic nominee, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday. That’s up from 58 percent in March.

Fifty-six percent have an unfavorable view of Trump — though that’s actually good news for Donald. Because it was 65 percent two months ago (that was a record high).

Thirty-seven percent have a favorable opinion of Clinton, down two points from 39 percent in March, establishing a new low. The likely Republican nominee’s favorable jumped over the same time period: 41 percent view Trump positively, up from 31 percent in March.

Democrats who are overconfident are going to find, again, that such thinking is a bad idea where Hillary is concerned. And conservatives who think they can sit this one out while Trump loses and try again in four years are deceiving themselves.

Trump Ahead of Cruz in Indiana

The first statewide poll of the presidential primaries in Indiana gives Trump an edge over Ted Cruz. Indiana is a crucial state because it is one of the few major states remaining where Cruz can snatch significant numbers of delegates from Trump. According to WTHR: The WTHR/HPI Indiana Poll has Trump with a 6-point lead… Continue Reading

Poll || Trump Dominating California

According to Politico: A new poll from Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies shows Donald Trump in a dominant position across the state. The results, provided to POLITICO, show Trump leading statewide with 41 percent of the vote and Cruz trailing far behind with 23 percent. John Kasich is in third with 21 percent, and 15 percent of… Continue Reading

New Poll: Bush at Four Percent

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush scored just 4 percent of the vote in the latest national GOP survey, a catastrophically low number that is sure to raise grave concern among the establishment donors who have invested millions in his success for the 2016 presidential race. The poll, released Friday by the Pew Research Center, shows Bush slipping… Continue Reading

Poll: Trump Scores Twice as Much Support as Bush

Well, so much for the predictions by the Washington cognoscenti that Donald Trump’s comments about John McCain not being a hero – a flip aside which he basically corrected a few sentences later, BTW – would destroy his campaign. What the prognosticators didn’t understand is that McCain is deeply unpopular among conservatives, even if his… Continue Reading

Bush Tops Obama in Poll

No, not that Bush. The other one. A new CNN poll finds that 52 percent of adults have a favorable view of George W. Bush, compared to 43 percent who see him unfavorably, a shift from previous polls that have shown Bush’s post-presidential approval well south of 50 percent. Bush’s positives are a bit ahead of… Continue Reading

Poll Shows Hillary in Trouble

The wheels coming off a Hillary Clinton campaign is not something unexpected. But this is very early for a meltdown. A new CBS poll is out showing only a quarter of Americans have a favorable opinion of Clinton and less than half think she is honest. These are not the numbers of a frontrunner. Watch… Continue Reading

Luntz: Collapse in Confidence in Government, Media

GOP polling guru Frank Luntz says the American people have lost confidence in all government institutions, including those designed to keep us healthy, as well as the media who report what those institutions are doing. Ironically, he finds that confidence in government was at its highest under a president who was trying to get government… Continue Reading

Todd: Obama Could Do “Jimmy Carter-Like Damage” to Democrats

NBC Meet the Press host Chuck Todd today suggested President Obama is on the cusp of throwing Democrats right back in the foreign policy disaster zone where they existed for at least a dozen years following Jimmy Carter’s feckless presidency. “He’s on the precipice of doing Jimmy Carter-like damage to the Democratic brand on foreign… Continue Reading