As of now, I am in control here, in the White House

Tag Archives: 2012 election

Koffler Gets it Badly Wrong

On Monday, I predicted that Gov. Mitt Romney would get 321 electoral votes and President Obama would receive 217.

As you are probably aware, I was exactly correct.


Actually I got it about backwards. Obama beat Romney by 332-206, nearly sweeping the swing states I said Romney would mostly win.

I think I understand why I was so badly mistaken. But I’m not going to tell you, because it wouldn’t benefit anyone but me.

I’ve started giving you my analysis of the election in other posts that I’ve put up, and I will continue to write about it. From that, you will understand what I think occurred on Tuesday.

But I’m not going to frame my analysis in terms of excuses or explanations for what I predicted.

I went out on a limb and made a forecast that showed a bigger Romney win than almost anyone else was comtemplating. I based it not on wishes or cheerleading – this is a news and analysis website, not an organ for promoting candidates. I based it on what I believed was hard headed analysis.

If I was right, I would have accepted the applause from my perch above the rest of the prognosticators.

But instead, the limb broke, and I landed on my ass.

And for that, I apologize to you.


Dossier Forecast: Romney Wins the Election

I believe Gov. Mitt Romney will win the election Tuesday by about three points in the popular vote and by a comfortable margin in the Electoral College. After analyzing each of the swing states individually, my tally is Romney 321 electoral votes to 217 for President Obama. I based my conclusions on polls, information I… Continue Reading

WashPost: Obama’s 2012 Advantages

Chris Cillizza, the Washington Post political analyst, has a good piece today on the difficulty a Republican candidate will face in 2012 overcoming Obama’s “built in” political advantage. The idea is, Obama’s Electoral College total was so large that he can drop swing states like Florida and Ohio and still win. I think this is… Continue Reading