On Monday, I predicted that Gov. Mitt Romney would get 321 electoral votes and President Obama would receive 217.
As you are probably aware, I was exactly correct.
Actually I got it about backwards. Obama beat Romney by 332-206, nearly sweeping the swing states I said Romney would mostly win.
I think I understand why I was so badly mistaken. But I’m not going to tell you, because it wouldn’t benefit anyone but me.
I’ve started giving you my analysis of the election in other posts that I’ve put up, and I will continue to write about it. From that, you will understand what I think occurred on Tuesday.
But I’m not going to frame my analysis in terms of excuses or explanations for what I predicted.
I went out on a limb and made a forecast that showed a bigger Romney win than almost anyone else was comtemplating. I based it not on wishes or cheerleading – this is a news and analysis website, not an organ for promoting candidates. I based it on what I believed was hard headed analysis.
If I was right, I would have accepted the applause from my perch above the rest of the prognosticators.
But instead, the limb broke, and I landed on my ass.
And for that, I apologize to you.
I believe Gov. Mitt Romney will win the election Tuesday by about three points in the popular vote and by a comfortable margin in the Electoral College.
After analyzing each of the swing states individually, my tally is Romney 321 electoral votes to 217 for President Obama.
I based my conclusions on polls, information I have gained from reading extensively about the election and – get this – my gut instinct.
With respect to the latter, that doesn’t mean I’m guessing. My instinct is based on what I have seen from various reports and from the feedback I get from you, which leads me to believe there is an earthquake rumbling beneath the electorate that the political Geiger counters in the mainstream media – and their affiliated pollsters – are not really detecting.
Over the weekend, I offered a more detailed analysis of why I think the polls are underestimating Romney’s strength.
I would add to this that the initial momentum Obama gained from his handling of Hurricane Sandy has probably dissipated by now, as people become refocused on the economy and see more video of desperate victims in need of food and FEMA. This, however, is not yet fully reflected in the polls, which are taken over several days.
Here’s my electoral map, which I did at 270towin:
Looking forward to hearing what you think. Let us know your Electoral College prediction too.
Chris Cillizza, the Washington Post political analyst, has a good piece today on the difficulty a Republican candidate will face in 2012 overcoming Obama’s “built in” political advantage.
The idea is, Obama’s Electoral College total was so large that he can drop swing states like Florida and Ohio and still win.
I think this is too much of a technical analysis that overlooks the same popular sentiment and emotion that put Republicans in charge of the House. But it underscores that the GOP will have to nominate a first-rate candidate if they want to achieve the always difficult task of unseating an sitting president.