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GOP Insiders: Polls Don’t Capture Trump’s Support

More than seven-in-10 GOP insiders in battleground states say the polls understate Donald Trump’s support because voters don’t want to admit to pollsters that they support him, according to Politico.

Politico is not going to be talking mainly to pro-Trump enthusiasts. It would be surveying seasoned Republican operatives with knowledge of their states. Lots of these people probably aren’t too keen on Trump, though they may want him to defeat Hillary because they loathe her even more.

And Politico tried to play down the implications. According to the piece:

With Trump falling behind in the majority of swing states, an overwhelming polling error may represent his best hope to win next month — and even that may not be enough. At the same time GOP insiders say there are “shy Trump” voters out there who aren’t showing up in the polls, a 59-percent majority still say Clinton would win their state if the election were held today.

“I’m not sure how big a factor it is, but there is definitely a ‘Bradley effect’ going on out there,” said a Virginia Republican, referring to the African-American mayor of Los Angeles who led in polls but lost unexpectedly in the 1982 California gubernatorial race. “I personally know many Republicans that won’t admit that they are voting for Trump. I don’t like admitting it myself. It won’t matter if Hillary is up more than 5 points, but we might be in for a surprise if Hillary’s lead is less than 5 points on Election Day.”

It seems to me that anyplace Trump is within two or three points is a likely win for him. And the polls seem to be moving his way.

The ABC News tracking poll— which surveys too many Democrats — had Clinton up by 12 a few days ago but now has her up by six. The L.A. Times poll, which had a tie, today has Trump up by two. Others have Clinton ahead by about one to nine points.

The next few days are critical for both candidates in terms of the polls. Clinton, through Wikileaks, is being pounded daily with negative publicity. People may start getting the sense that as queasy as they are about Trump, they are even more uncomfortable with her.

If the numbers start moving Trump’s way, he has a serious chance. If not, then short of some kind of insane bombshell leak, I don’t see what’s going to move them.

But either way, I don’t understand this prevailing theme, even among Republicans, that the election is over. It’s not.

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13 Responses to GOP Insiders: Polls Don’t Capture Trump’s Support

  1. We were noticing the lack of Trump lawn signs in our town, even though we suspect many folks will pull the lever for him. This is the PC world we live in.

    But come election day, in the privacy of the booth, we vote our conscience, and that is the only poll that matters.

    H

    • they were all over my little Michigan town then last weekend somebody stole them all overnight.i know where there were a cpl dozen of them at least. now we put ours in windows and i even seen 1 hanging on a roof.

  2. Speaking of Trump support, Trump is having a rally today at 3 pm in a little town three miles from my house. I’m thinking of going, but the weather is foul today–rainy, cool–so I may not, though I want to. I’m sure there will be a huge crowd, and I don’t like crowds.

    Here’s what’s interesting about today’s rally. The rally is being held in a smallish church auditorium in a very, very small town (maybe about 2,000 pop), and very much Democrat, so that strikes me as odd. Though, obviously, he has visited huge cities and other similar venues, so this is interesting. His son Eric was in town a couple of days ago, and drew a huge crowd. But Trump’s rally today shows that Trump is on the move, all day, every day during the campaign. I expect standing room only space in the auditorium and long lines outside in the rain. But we’ll see. It will be very interesting to see how our wacko liberal local newspaper reports the story. The Hillary people have to bus people in at her rallies, bribe them with food and false promises. I bet they won’t have to do that with today’s Trump rally.

    http://www.sunjournal.com/news/maine/2016/10/27/lisbon-looks-forward-donald-trump-rally/2019976

    • Well, the Trump rally took place and the local television people gave it about 30 seconds on the news. Basically saying, “Trump was here and now he’s gone.” Had it been Hillary, they would have given their entire newscast over to the event.

  3. I’ve been polled 6 times in the last 2 months.
    Why?- I’m a D, have a land line, and my surname starts early in the alphabet.
    I lie. Lie about my age, who I’m voting for or even if I plan to vote.
    They (the pollsters) know my name, where I live – I’m in the phone book. How retro, huh?
    Two votes for Trump/Spence were mailed from our house – my D vote and Daughter’s Indy vote.

    ot: a little
    Our 16yr old Grandson says his friends all think MrsClinton is a liar and/or “creepy”, and while they think “free” college is fine, it won’t do them any good if they can’t find a job.

  4. Dear Lord, Please deliver us from the evil, corrupt, lying, hateful democrats and their supporters and enablers in the media and entertainment and the government. Dear Lord, give us the courage to survive their slings and arrows as we approach the election. I have never seen such viciousness in all of my life. the democrats are the true suppressors of democracy; they will not listen to reason or truth. Dear Lord, please help us to get out the vote to get Trump elected…..Amen.

    • The devil whispered in my ear, you’re not strong enough to withstand the the storm “.
      Today I whispered back, “I am the storm”.
      That’s us, We The People.

  5. Skeptical of polls and sources of information. I wont’ even glance at Politico these days.

    Pretty much we are living in a Soviet era of misinformation and disinformation.

    BTW, the highest law enforcement officer in the land, Loretta Lynch, took the 5th on the issue of ransom payments for the Iranian hostages.

    • At the end of the Obama term (hopefully forever), she might as well tell what she knows and who told her to do what.
      Nothing will happen to her and no criminal charges will be brought.
      The Repubs won’t do anything but whine about it, and the Dems will lie about it.
      All this secrecy is dismaying and not what the people think is right.

  6. I agree with everything everyone said above me here especially the prayer from neveronsunday. We must NOT give up hope. Our county here in Florida has about 160,000 people according to the last census. There are hardly any Trump or Clinton signs out which is really unusual. But there are lots of signs for the local commissioners and school administrators running for office.

    Strange times we live in.

  7. Also, Political Insider has a really nice article in it today pertaining to people in Israel gathering together wearing Make America Great Again hats and cheering for Trump.