Now let’s say a pollster calls you, and you are a Trump supporter. But you are also, say, deeply religious, or a very nice person who doesn’t want to be thought of as not nice, or, perhaps, a woman who doesn’t want to feel like she is betraying her gender.
And someone you don’t know on the other end of the line, who for all you know is recording the conversation, wants to know if you will vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
And you are aware that Trump has said terrible things, and now is being accused of doing terrible things to women. How strong is the incentive to lie and say what you assume the pollster wants to hear? That is, to say you will vote for Hillary Clinton, when in fact, you will vote for Donald Trump.
It’s already difficult to be a Republican. You are thought of as uncaring, nasty, and possibly very stupid. These assumed attributes are doubled if you are a Republican and you support Donald Trump. It makes it even harder to admit you will back the Republican Trump if you are an independent or a Democrat who just can’t stomach Hillary Clinton and thinks the country needs to change.
We don’t know how great the “Trump bump” over the polls on Election Day will be. And it’s very dangerous to assume the polls are going to be wrong. In 2012, Republicans were told to ignore polls in places like Ohio, where people on the ground could “feel” a Mitt Romney win, and where he lost.
But I would guess this time the polls would have to have a few extra points built in for Hillary Clinton based on the Trump shame factor. Everyone wants to be liked, even by an anonymous pollster.
How many men are going to hesitate, at least, before telling a female pollster they will vote for Trump? Or before saying so to a pollster with an Hispanic accent? I mean, let’s be frank.
There is one caveat to this. Clinton will have a much better get-out-the-vote effort. But that may be canceled out by the relative enthusiasm of Trump’s supporters. Few are excited to go to the polls and vote for Hillary — not like they were for Obama.
“I think he probably will win this,” Newt Gingrich said during an interview this morning with Maria Bartiromo. Comparing the vote to Brexit, Gingrich said, “When they get down to it, people go, ‘No, I’m not going to vote for the establishment thug who’s corrupt.'”
That would Mrs. Clinton.