As of now, I am in control here, in the White House

No, Trump Isn’t on Cruz Control Yet

Donald Trump no doubt had a big win in New York. He’s on track to claim nearly all of the state’s 98 delegates in a victory that saw him not only smash the 50 percent mark – which allowed him to gain extra delegates – but win nearly every region of the state.

donald trump

But according to the widely respected Nate Silver, writing for his political website, FiveThirtyEight, Trump is still also on track to come up short at the convention. The main question is, will he get close enough to required 1,237 that he can maneuver his way over the top with uncommitted delegates, or do we go to a second ballot, in which case Ted Cruz is in good position to win.

Silver writes:

If Trump finishes with 90 delegates from New York and matches the panel’s projections in the remaining states, he’d eventually finish with 1,191 delegates — close enough to 1,237 that he might be able to get there with uncommitted delegates, especially uncommitted delegates from Pennsylvania . . .

I’m not sure we’ve learned as much about how Trump will perform outside the Northeast. It’s been a highly regional campaign so far, and Trump will probably still need to win both Indiana and California to clinch 1,237 without uncommitted delegates. If he loses both states, we’re probably headed for a multi-ballot convention, which would be trouble for Trump. If he splits Indiana and California, Trump will be right on a knife’s edge — that’s the case where the extra two or three dozen delegates he’ll pick up in the Northeast tonight and next week could be the most helpful to him.

Trump has been very smart to discipline his message. People already get that he’s a tough guy and would be a strong leader not cowed by the demands for political correctness. His main problem is that there are many who fear he might be, uh, too strong a leader, and one who hasn’t particularly thought the issues through. By cooling his rhetoric, Republicans may slowly forget Bad Donald and feel more comfortable voting for him.

And given that he toned it down considerably since losing Wisconsin two weeks ago, that might be part of what we saw in New York – in addition to hometown boy makes good and Texan denigrates New York Values and then asks for New York Votes.

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9 Responses to No, Trump Isn’t on Cruz Control Yet

  1. If you peruse his website and read his points, many fiscal conservatives will be happy. Trump never talks about his points, other than the crowd pleasers… build a wall, yada yada. And that is what works in our Kardashian world.

    Folks that flock to these rah rah events don’t want to see charts, projections or economic plans….they want jeers, sneers and jabs. Trump is a brilliant marketer and knows that if he went to the heart of his plan, people would rush the exit door.

    Its a sad state of affairs, but it is who America is right now… pissed and impatient.

    H

    • I was going to say what Keith calls a strong leader, I call a rabble rouser. English is so flexible and descriptive, isn’t it? He says he’s strong, yet he mocks the injured and handicapped. He sounds so certain yet changes and tweaks and modifies everything when there is blowback. He says he is a good manager but can’t manage his own campaign staff… He pulls positions out of the air (or airwaves) and never fleshes them out. Oh, well…I am at the end of my vision window for today… Everyone has to decide if this works for him or her.

  2. According to Politico, he wasn’t doing well in Indiana a few weeks ago. And no doubt, he’ll do all the work necessary to win CA a week after the primary.
    Wouldn’t vote for that clown for all the money in the world, no matter how of a cowed pussy he turns into.

  3. AMERICA IS HEADING FOR ‘BUSINESS AS USUAL’ IF CRUZ, KASICK OR EVEN HILLARY CLINTON, WHO HAS A DARK HISTORY WILL RESURFACE ONCE TRUMP BECOMES NOMINEE. TO BRING BACK JOBS FROM OVERSEAS AND THE COMPANIES THAT HAS ABANDONED AMERICA ONLY THE DONALD CAN ACHIEVE THAT?

    By building the giant wall, that neither Sen. Cruz or Governor Kasich will do, the drugs that are killing our teenagers will just pour through 100 of miles of open border. The wall will be a major obstacle to the illegal alien invasion, which Obama has dismally failed to end. He has manacled the duties of the US Border Patrol and given orders to let the hordes in by executive order.

    Who are the Donald Trump Supporters?

    Is Trump a Conservative? So what is a Conservative?

    TRUMP CANNOT BE BROUGHT BY ANY SPECIAL INTERESTS. INSIDER POLITICIANS ARE ALL TALK AND NO ACTION. THEY WILL LIE AND DECEIVE AMERICANS TO KEEP THEIR JOBS AND FILL THEIR BANK ACCOUNTS AS HILLARY CLINTON, CRUZ AND KASICK.

    DON’T LISTEN TO THE MAINSTREAM PRESS OR THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIA AS THEY ARE DECEIVERS AND USE TRUMPS SPEECHES OUT OF CONTEXT. CLUB FOR GROWTH GETS THEIR MONEY FROM THE WEALTHY AND THE GOP ESTABLISHMENT.

    * Wants to build the WALL and have people come into the US legally.
    * Wants to end the illegal community Sanctuary Cities, illegal alien crime, and murders.
    * Bring to end illegal aliens pilfering our benefits, by collecting fraudulent child tax reimbursements.
    * Interior enforcement by ICE to track ‘Overstays’ and treat them as illegal immigrants.
    * Wants to deport Criminal illegal aliens immediately.
    * Wants to stop the catering to illegal immigrants and the massive cost of $113 Billions and still rising.
    * Wants to return refugees to safe zones in Syria.
    * Wants to give superior care to our Veterans, instead of Obama administration pandering to millions of illegal aliens?
    * Wants to protect and defend our police, fireman, and first responders.
    * Wants to end COMMON CORE and fix our failing educational system.
    * JOBS, JOBS, JOBS AND MORE JOBS AND ONLY TRUMP CAN DO IT.
    * Wants to end the rip off by foreign countries and Mexico and real FREE TRADE.
    * Wants to return JOBS and companies from foreign countries and Mexico by renegotiating our weak UNFAIR TRADE DEALS; Chinese $600 Billion; Mexico $58 Billion; Japan, India heavy deficits.
    * Will stop the profiteering of the Wealthy off the backs of the American worker.
    * Wants us to be Energy Dependant, no nations unfriendly to the United States.
    * Wants to save a Christian identity and Christmas; Americans must not be afraid of POLITICALLY CORRECT and the Democrats trying to balkanize the country.
    * Wants to get budget balanced and remove the waste and corruption.
    * Wants to stop the Environmental Protection Agency the; undermining the businesses and peoples lives.
    * Wants to end the monopoly of insurance companies and allow citizens from buying policies in different states.
    * Wants to fix the Political system, which is draining our economy and not in Washington just for a paycheck.
    * Wants to rebuild our infrastructure; roads, bridges, etc.
    * Wants to Revitalize the Military, so nobody will dare provoke us.
    * Wants to reduce taxes for businesses and Taxpayers.
    * Wants the 1st Amendment left untouched, and no further interference by the Political Correct police.
    * Wants the 2nd Amendment and our gun rights untouched by the Democrats or the PC Police.

    * Wants to end the Obamacare, and leave our own doctors and hospitals to be in charge and not other bureaucratic hacks. It will be a far superior health care system than available now.
    * Wants to help with women’s health care issues as he is Pro Life.

    Both Senator Cruz and Gov. Kasick both approved of the TRANSPACIFIC PARTNERSHIP, which will steal even hundreds of thousands of more jobs and businesses than China, Mexico in the Asian countries.

    To the Fanatical Trump voter they are just realizing their voting doesn’t count, so I can tell you know that if the GOP professional class think that the delegate count is a clever rip off, At the convention no matter whether Trump is out a 100 delegates or not Trump wins or all hell is going to break loose? Have no idea what the consequences are going to be, but when Donald Trump has millions upon million of voters and doesn’t win through sleight of hand, it could be gargantuan civil unrest at the worst, but however the majority have pledged to walk away and not vote. That’s a unnecessary death to the Republican party.

    IF THE DONALD ISN’T CONSERVATIVE, THAN MILLIONS OF MILLIONS OF VOTERS ARE WHAT TRUMP IS?

  4. Well, NY Ted does have a new theme song: “I’ll take Manhattan…” (Rodgers and Hart, 1929). It was a small victory, but he did win it.