As of now, I am in control here, in the White House

Voter Turnout: The Secret Sauce in Trump’s Success

There have been two particularly remarkable patterns in the Republican primaries so far: Record number of voters turn up to vote, and Donald Trump wins or — once, in Iowa — comes in a close second. And that is no coincidence.

Trump is the candidate of passion in this race, and the passionate are showing up at caucuses and polls in droves. Record numbers of Republicans have cast votes in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the long lines recorded Tuesday in Nevada suggest the same thing happened there. GOP contests in the first three states to vote drew more than 1.2 million voters, up 24 percent over 2012, the New York Post reports.

Voter turnout negates the advantages of Trump’s opponents and fits perfectly with his playbook. Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are better organized than Trump and have superior “ground games.” But you don’t need buses and perky twenty-somethings to drive voters to the polls if they’re going anyway. Trump is inspiring people, and they are turning out.

What’s more, by striking such a resounding chord with voters, Trump, whose spending has been dwarfed by his rivals, doesn’t need to pound them with ads or drop cash getting them to the polls. “Money can’t buy me love,” the Beatles sung five decades ago. Trump has the love, and he doesn’t need to try to purchase any.

Rubio is starting to rack up endorsements. Trump won’t be accumulating many at all. But endorsements represent someone else’s devotion, not that of the voters. The approval of the Establishment will be overwhelmed by the ardor that is driving Trump’s voters, and it will make little difference for Rubio.

You don’t marry someone because someone else loves them. Not usually, anyway.

By contrast, the other passion candidate in the race, Sen. Bernie Sanders, is losing to Hillary Clinton. And that’s because his energized acolytes are sweet young things who are excited about Sanders’ socialist message but who haven’t taken the hits life offers and haven’t watched the slow decay of their nation over decades. And thus, they are turning out for rallies, but not so much for voting. Sanders blamed his loss in Nevada Saturday to low turnout. It’s a problem he may continue to have on Super Tuesday.

Trump’s voters are angry, the Nevada caucus entrance polls show it. They know Washington doesn’t work. They know the economy is limping. They know their jobs are being stolen by bad trade deals and cheap labor from Mexican immigration, which is swamping the country in numbers too big to absorb. They realize traditional politicians have failed time and again to get the job done. The Marco Rubios, the Jeb Bushes or the world — they’ve seen these types before. They want someone who is brash enough and determined enough to really make a change. And Donald Trump fits the bill.

In Nevada, Trump took the over-65 population. They don’t have the same volume of hormones driving them into adoring and adorable frenzies at Bernie’s rallies. But even if they have to employ walkers or wheelchairs to get there, they show up to vote.

And for those doubting Trump’s ability to win in the general election, take the polls you see showing him narrowly losing to Sanders or Hillary Clinton, print them out and drop them in the trash. Because he is, as he says, the “high-energy” candidate with the high-energy voters who will arrive at polling stations on Nov. 8, 2016, Election Day in the United States.

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84 Responses to Voter Turnout: The Secret Sauce in Trump’s Success

    • Sorry, I can’t let this go unanswered.
      No, it’s not the end of our country. A President Trump will not signal our demise, but rather show our willingness to return to the Constitution, the rule of laws passed duly by our elected officals and the harnessing of a out-of-control government.

      A President Clinton will further the invasion of illegal aliens and people who only wish our demise, it will mean more government intrusion into our every action, and force us to accept what we cannot.

      Please don’t be so gloomy, Star; we’re far from over.

      • Much as I respect you, SrDem, I just can’t buy into his nonsense…It would be easier if I could. So much of the press has–that is disgusting too. Today on MoJoe (I watch so none of you have to), where they have dived into his tank big time, they are beyond this election–what if he can’t do anything he says, how mad will people be then? They already see it…and that is a good question. Can we have a country with policies based on bitterness, anger, and contempt? Or is this the downward arrow…down down.

        • Just a thought here. I would say we already are a country of anger, bitterness and contempt. The left has been governing that way against the majority for years now. They’re just shocked that the “civil” Republicans have revolted against them. Trump is the reaction to the left’s own actions. He’s not perfect but he’s all we’ve got and I’ll take a Patton over a McClellan any day.

        • ” End of the Country “?
          Yes Star, if Hillary or Sanders are elected.
          Either of them will finish the destruction of America that Obama started.
          It’s only the beginning.

          • Your opinion. Mine is that neither is skilled or qualified enough to finish Obama’s work. And I also don’t think Trump can or would do what some of you want. Guess we will all know eventually…one way or the other…and then years and years of observing, commenting, lamenting, outrage, and ultimately, not much change.

        • Srdem is correct, we aren’t done yet as a Country.
          If you think we are, how do you explain the massive crowds at the Trump rallies ?
          In 2012 we took the House, in 2014 we took the senate and they both slapped us in the face and essentially said sit down and shut up.

          The people are sick and tired of that BS.

          Obama is an arrogant puss that hates America, Trump is arrogant, bombastic, and loves America.

          • Says he loves America. He loves himself. You got nothing but BS–you guys say–after the Tea Party came in. Then nothing after 2012. And if Trump were to win, prepare for years of blat and nothing much in policy or action. But all the while, he would keep the road show going to distract. I don’t know this for sure–but neither do you. As I once said I don’t “trust” any of these people–esp him.

    • Yes Star, why so gloomy ? The world is a mess, yes, my country is a mess, oh yes indeed , and the US, well, you know about that…. But I see some good signs here and there. The Brexit debate in Britain, the peace agreements in Syria and the upcoming president election in the US. And springtime is here. Hope and change !

      • Apparently you like Trump’s passion. Did you read the recent Wash Post story on how other world leaders are not as enchanted–we would be going right back into not being respected or able to amass alliances in the common interest. The same as now! Do you think Bibi wants to be this guy’s “apprentice”? What HAS Trump said on Israel? I notice he said let Cuba take care of the prisoners in Gitmo–seriously, this is a good idea?

        • Hate to tell you Star but take a look around and you’ll see a world respecting the U.S. today even less than it did under Bush. They may have hated Bush but the respected and feared us.
          Today Putin moves at ease throughout the Middle East, Iran is on a weapons shopping spree that only evil can enjoy, and China is now placing jets on its mad made island to pair up with the air defense missile system that arrived last week.
          Only a strong America keeps world evil at bay and under Obama those bay doors have been thrown wide open.
          A protest “stay at home” against him in November, should he make it that far, only perpetuates the status quo. A status quo that I dare say would be much worse than any Trump Presidency. IMHO anyway.

          • I do look around me–everyday…This guy would be no improvement in our international standing and quite possibly set it back further… He says he will find some loophole in the terrible agreement with Iran–and renegotiate the whole thing. This sounds easy peasy, right? These are ridiculous statements pitched at wishful thinkers…

          • Defend how–under what circumstances..if Iran attacks them? If the Saudis attack? Is he a Saudi guy? Will the Saudis think, whew, finally a leader and send more ground troops against ISIS? We need more Sunnis in the fight. I do stand corrected that he has not said anything about Israel…but it’s the usual maddening cotton candy–just wisps and disappears before you can taste it.

          • One thing for sure. Obama is no friend of Israel’s. Any gesture he makes is pure show.

            Moreoever, from the size of their donations and the ardor of their support for Obama it does not look like many of the monied Democrat jews care for Israel either. If they did, Obama could never get away with his demeaning, wretched behaviour.

        • Star, “other world leaders are not so enchanted”, well, these people come and go ( except for Putin and that Chinese fellow and some others) and I wouldn´t bother much about them and what their government friendly media writes. I would say that we have a mood-change in Europe as well and many of us feel as angry and anti-establishment as you , our fellow Americans.Our leaders will feel the pressure too. And we look at Trump with great fascination.Well, some don´t for sure but we are not used to his political style. He might be a catalyst of change. And I am sure that the All-American Trump will be more respected than the Not so American Obama.

        • “Did you read the recent Wash Post story on how other world leaders are not as enchanted…”

          I’m not a Trump fan, but I couldn’t give two figs as to what ‘other world leaders’ think.

          Not even for a second.

  1. Candidate of passion….nice. I wish we had such a candidate over here as well. The London mayor Boris Johnson suddenly took an anti-EU position, a nice surprise, and appeared to be the peoples champion. But I am not so sure, he is probably another Eton boy who wants to be a PM.To him it is all a gentlemens game.Trump is different. Like Keith writes, he is brash and determined enough to really make a change. He gained my respect when he started to question the then saintly Obamas birth-records and academic records and kept up even when media considered him a lunatic.And yes, he is now the candidate who doesn´t need the services provided by “Rent-a-Crowd”.

  2. Sanders won’t win the Democratic nomination. The fix is in on that, and Cankles will get a couple of fun-house scares and not much else before the coronation.

    So it’s going to be Trump against Cacklepants in eight months, and here is the elephant in the nursing home. Seniors have been watching Hilldabeast since 1992. Her ambitions have been on display for all to see, for a quarter of a century.

    Put simply, Hillary Clinton is the avatar of all that is wrong in Washington.

    So, with the college kids too busy with classes to vote (*snicker*) once Sanders follows Howard Dean into the Vermont Hall of Also-rans, seniors may break BIG for Trump, and that will be a Yuuuuge factor in the Sun Belt. They won’t be counting chads in Florida THIS time.

    President Trump. Get used to saying that now, so it will feel natural 330 days hence.

  3. Trump is gruff: check
    Trump is vulgar: check
    Trump is rude: check
    Yet for all the check marks against him, he is the only candidate tapped into the years of frustration and anger of the millions who paid their taxes, played by the rules and have been rewarded with corporate free trade, an invasion of cheap labor and welfare takers, and a smug media and Hollywood that has shoved an “anything goes” culture down their throats.
    Trump is not a “true” philosophical conservative, but neither is he a narrow ideologue. He speaks with a broad tongue for the country but his company shows he can paint with the tiniest of detail to get the job done one time and within budget.
    This country is far beyond its budget and slipped into a cultural time that will destroy it if not abated immediately.
    Trump addresses that and the results are reflecting that.
    BUT, the best was watching Cokie Roberts and Al Hunt on Morning Joe this morning finally realizing what they were up against. Now that put a YUUUUUUUUGE smile on my face! :)

    • They have been saying the same for months on MoJoe–how about that Trump? I dunno, Joe–you helped create him–are you going to take responsibility if he gets us into a nuclear smackdown or if the Chinese are not as afraid of him as he says and calls our loans? I give up on this–you guys know how I feel…I made my decision and you made yours. Just being “not as bad as” is not a qualification, by the way.

      • Star, which candidate, if elected, would not be faced with the same dangers?
        The Chinese can call their loans with anyone as POTUS.
        And – the nuclear threat remains – terrorists are have no respect for the office of POTUS of the current inhabitant of that office.

        • I think a candidate who does not call everyone stupid and wishes he could punch people out “like we used to be able to” might, just might, garner more respect…

          I can type until I am blue in the keyboard, I guess…

          • Well Star just let it slip. She is a lib.
            “….finish Obama’s work” She said it she owns it.

            The majic kneegrow has brought this country to its knees. You want to finish it?

            Do you believe the gov GDP and unemployment numbers? If you do you are running on emotion and not reality.

          • Isn’t that what people think–Hillary would finish Obama’s work. I am saying she can’t, doesn’t have the skillset. As I have often said, I was a Dem all my life–voted a straight ticket time after time…Then came Obama floating out of nowhere–I got a bad vibe and could not get the straight story on him, so I voted Rep the last two times. Most of which I gradually learned about conservatism–smaller govt, most things left to the states, fiscal accountability–I got from coming to this site…Then BAM! you or many of you go for someone who believes in none of this and is loud, crass, rude, and sketchy at best on some issues or with blanket unfeasible “solutions” on others, which supposedly signals “strength.” And you also think he’s great because he makes irritating press people mad or confounds the talking heads. These are not reasons. Maybe I was naive believing people here…I guess I was. Now, I have no party–so won’t vote if it continues this way.

      • Star, China most likely will not call our loans, they are tied to the global economy.

        But China is having economic problems and they are extending their military aggression in the area. Reminds me of the old USSR when the people suffered economically and all resources were devoted to the military. We too often associate it with economy and dollars and tend to forget its military ambitions.

        Some people say China cannot go backwards and deprive the people of the openness and economic wealth they have garnered over the years. I am not so sure.

        Obama has almost decimated our military — morale, personnel — Obama brass, and all kinds of social engineering experiments not good for a chain of command system, etc.

        Look around at our weakened foreign policy position, in the ME, the Far East and South and Latin America — Russia’s gateway to the US. Forget the missiles of the Cuban missile crisis, Russians and terrorists can just walk right in and set up shop.

        I hope Mooch gets the opportunity to go all Carmen Miranda on us — bananas on her head — while she is in Cuba.

  4. Keith, you speak of the passion exhibited by Trump supporters.
    My passion is to see this country return to our definitive constitutional roots. If that is possible then we, as a nation, can make adjustments to term limits – in my opinion, the most pressing issue we face after separation of powers is re-established.
    My passion is fueled by my great desire to see this country continue as the greatest nation on earth – for my grandchildren’s sake.
    Children and Grandchildren and the quality of their lives is a great motivator. Trump knows this. That is one of his “secrets to success.”

    • Agree. The context of the current political culture explains a lot of the huge popularity of Trump. That, and he is a master of the media. He’s just about done is Phase One, his Lady GaGa outrageous stage, where he broke through the protective barriers GOPe established for Bush and Rubio. Now, he’ll begin his Phase 2 stage, more settled, calmer, etc. I’m already hearing this when Trump calls in to various talk shows around the country and sounds completely different than when he started out.

      Publicly, on the stage, he still makes outrageous statements. That’s for sure. So what?

      Is Trump perfect? Of course not. Searching for the perfect candidate (in spite of all of them claiming to BE the perfect candidate ;+}) is a fool’s errand.

      The current Trump-Cruz contention is very mild compared to, say, how Thomas Jefferson and John Adams treated each other in the Presidential election of 1800. Amazingly, Adams was then President and Jefferson was his Vice President–both running for President in what would have been Adam’s second term. How’s this for insulting the other candidate? Jefferson accused John Adams of having a “hideous hermaphroditical character, which has neither the force and firmness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman.” Slap! ;+}

      John Adam, of course, shot back and called Jefferson: “a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow, the son of a half-breed Indian squaw, sired by a Virginia mulatto father.” And it got much worse than that!
      Oh, pass the smelling salts!

      http://mentalfloss.com/article/12487/adams-vs-jefferson-birth-negative-campaigning-us

      For me, this is what explains the current political revolution in the country– 63 percent of the country think we are headed in the wrong direction.
      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html
      And…
      77 percent disapprove of Congress.
      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html

      • Well, I’ve been in moderation since 12:41 pm. Probably not the record, but right up there.

        I’ll trying posting a shortened version of the post.

        The current Trump-Cruz contention is very mild compared to, say, how Thomas Jefferson and John Adams treated each other in the Presidential election of 1800. Amazingly, Adams was then President and Jefferson was his Vice President–both running for President in what would have been Adam’s second term. How’s this for insulting the other candidate? Jefferson accused John Adams of having a “hideous hermaphroditical character, which has neither the force and firmness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman.” Slap! ;+}

        John Adam, of course, shot back and called Jefferson: “a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow, the son of a half-breed Indian squaw, sired by a Virginia mulatto father.” And it got much worse than that!
        Oh, pass the smelling salts!

        http://mentalfloss.com/article/12487/adams-vs-jefferson-birth-negative-campaigning-us

    • How does it scare you?
      Executive overreach? Well that can be addressed through the courts and Congress as is now under Obama. (Obama has lost far more than he’s won.)
      World War III? Trump can be an arrogant a$$ but he also has a family. He no more wants to destroy America than any of the other candidates. I remember one of the big arguments against Reagan would be that he would start a World War with his brash talk against the Soviet Union. Yet in the end it was firm, bold talk AND action that brought the wall down.
      China is pushing today because it knows it can. Do we just keep letting them push and keep passing it off to future years until the confrontation really does turn into a WWIII? China needs us and our allies trade more than we need them at this point. But that point in time will not last forever.
      Just a few reasons, I’m not scared of a Trump Presidency. From where I sit, Obama’s put us in the worst financial, foreign policy position since WWII, we either deal with it now or we’re toast in a few years anyway.

  5. DEMS are running scared! Today on MoJoe, Cokie Roberts reported that EVERYONE at her beauty parlor was ‘scared to death’ that something terrible is going to happen to this country (Trump).
    Joe replied that if her beauty parlor was in a different neighborhood, it would be the opposite reaction, lol.

    I, for one, am certainly not UNhappy that Trump will most likely be the last man standing – the others were just small potatoes.

    That said, the main event hasn’t even begun yet–the HRC/Trump debates.
    We are certainly not ‘ready for Hillary’, but she will be ready for Trump. I’m betting it will be a TKO in the first round for all of the obvious reasons: Details, details, details.

  6. What is that saying — something like 90% of success is showing up. And then something similar regarding hard work.

    Trump shows up and he works hard.

    Rubio can’t even make a post Nevada speech. I hope the RNC and the GOPe and all the donors spend lots and lots of money on Markie just like they did with Jeb and get the same results.

    • As more of Rubio’s past, er, flirtations with semi-truths are made known, he will gradually melt into the political background. He’ll strangle himself on his own rope with his, “That was then, this is now,” or “What I meant to say,” or My opponent has it all wrong when he says that about me.” By, say, June or maybe July, he’ll be gone. Maybe before then after the upcoming primaries/caucuses wind down.

  7. Thank you Keith for a great article lost in translation from a lot of opinions .reminds me of my days as a preschool teacher….sec primary already going strong with voting here in Georgia early now…big day March 1…funny how I never see dems going after each other but repubs. Yeah we eat our own….tell me what mitt Romney did for this country? Shades of Harry Reid amoung us….pisses me off

  8. All the passion in the world won’t make up for the fact that 2/3 of Republicans refuse to vote for this assclown. Which is pretty much why the Clintons got him to run in the first place.

    • Gotta love the intellectual consistency.

      Republicans were saying “Anyone but Hillary” for years, but now that Trump is the presumptive nominee, that absolute is apparently no longer operative.

      • If I wanted to vote for a lefty I’d vote for Hillary Clinton, not the lefty trying to get the GOP nomination.
        I guess he figures that saying a bunch of stupid crap and appealing to ignorant bigots is easier than trying to run as a Democrat.

        • Frankly, after a response like that, I’m going to wonder in print if you’re anything more than another dime-a-dozen concern-trolling Clintonista.