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As Obama Speaks, Top Scientist Questions Warming Models

As President Obama today announces a series of onerous, unilateral new regulations to try to limit carbon emissions, a leading climate scientist is acknowledging that the lack of warming over the past 15 years contradicts 98 percent of the climate change models, and that another five years of static temperatures will force scientists to completely revamp the theory.

In an interview with Der Spiegel, one of Europe’s major news outlets, German climate scientist Hans Von Storch said the failure of climate change models is a “puzzle” that presents “a serious scientific problem.”

So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break. We’re facing a puzzle. Recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared. As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero. This is a serious scientific problem.

Von Storch estimated that the lack of warming conforms with less than two percent of climate change forecasts, and that 98 percent predicted more of an increase in temperature. If this continues, it will be ruinous for the current forecasting models.

If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate models. A 20-year pause in global warming does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with our expectations.

Von Storch agrees that there is man made global warming – his research has even provided evidence of the link –  though he has expressed concern that some scientists are over-hyping alarm about the consequences. Now he says the explanations for the problems with the models can only be that either greenhouse gases have less of an effect on the climate than feared or that the models fail to sufficiently take into account fluctuations in temperature due to natural causes.

Obama’s speech today at Georgetown University will lay out bold measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, strategies that presuppose a significant effect by humans on the climate. With Congress having balked at acting on many of the emissions reduction proposals Obama supports, the president will lay out a series of plans using unilateral executive action to limit emissions from power plants and vehicles, while lavishing new money on energy efficiency projects and international climate change mitigation efforts.

Storch’s comments, however, suggest it may still be too early for draconian steps that adversely impact the economy, especially when the U.S. economic recovery is at such a fragile juncture.

H/T to Ace of Spades.

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45 Responses to As Obama Speaks, Top Scientist Questions Warming Models

  1. “Let Me Be Clear…It’s Hot out here. Valerie tells me it’s at least 92 degrees. Michelle’s heads of lettuces are wilting. Sasha and Malia reminded me that all the snow in Aspen has melted and they can’t ski. And Vice President Biden’s hair is having an issue sticking to his head. There’s my proof of Global warming.”

  2. “unilateral new regulations to try to limit carbon emissions…” “Try” to do it? He will do it by hook or crook. I’m sure all those democrats in Kentucky and other coal producing states are way glad they voted for him.

  3. BarackObama is all wrong about the causes of “global warming” and I can prove it. The temperature is higher in front of my house (near the paved street) than it is in my backyard; proof that concrete and asphalt are the villians in this threat to mankind.

    If we demolished all structures and projects made of brick, concrete and plastics, and returned to wooden structures and dirt roads, we will save the earth from a horrible fate. All vehicles should be retrofitted to operate on steam engine priniciples, fueled with wood or old newspapers.
    I’m not a scientist, but I watch the Discovery Channel on TV.

  4. American scientist are tainted by their personal political agendas. If a study is done by an American scientist, you can be sure it’s outcomes are lies. Do a little research on the scientist first to know what the agenda for the “study” is and walla! Outcomes that support their view.

  5. I’m not good with science and math, but when I learned that people such as James “Soros” Hansen was a propent of the theory, I knew that something was wrong with it.

  6. The mystery of Obama’s bizarre and destructive behavior toward US energy independence can be explained by asking one question: Who benefits.from his attack on domestic US energy development? Answer: his Saudi buddies, to whom he owes a great deal, as has been reported in many of the books written about Obama. The last thing the Saudis want to to have the US cash flow for oil cut off. He owes them at least that much. End of mystery.

  7. An American President from the elite podium at GU proudly circumvents Congress and with the full might of his EPA bureaucracy decimates an American industry, its workers, families, communities and shareholders at the altar of his revered international community and “green” donor base.

    He is a stain on America.

    • Has anyone here mentioned that climate change (along with gun control and immigration) is at the bottom of the list of the nation’s concerns?

  8. It is taking about 45 C-17 loads to move the royal family, etc, to Africa for their very important and historic trip. PLUS AF1. And AF2.

    But please. Tell us all about all carbon footprints and this urgent need.

    • Now, now, don’t get all excited. These new regulations only apply to the little people, certainly not the Obamas or the limousine crowd.
      The spewing of carbon emissions will only happen over the Atlantic and Africa, so it doesn’t count when measuring “foot prints”.
      snort…how could there be “foot prints” in the ocean and really, Africa? who cares about them.

  9. Obama only knows how to spend money and not how to generate it. This can easily be proven with a model based on scientific method.

  10. I’ve found no better source for all things global warming from real scientists and meteorologists than the website called Watts Up With That. They have a good article today on Obama’s plan called The Good The Bad and The Ugly. Well worth a read.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/

  11. I know this is very unscientific and touchy-feely, but I think of the earth as a body and “civilization” with its buildings, air conditioners, chemicals, cars and so on as sort of like psoriasis–a scabby covering, an irrirant, an itch. Yet most of the body is water, shifting, ceaselessly recycling, healing. I can’t see the skin condition as totally killing the body–I think the heating and cooling cycles come and go as they are intended to. Anyhow, I hate any know-it-all stuff thrown in my face–my “meter” goes ooga-ooga. {Told ya it was unscientific.]

  12. ‘…a puzzle…’ Yeah it’s only one of the biggest puzzles ever, I think someone may have called it ‘God the Universe and everything else.’

  13. I am not a fan of strikes. But right about now I would like to see all the coal fired plant operators shut them down. When America complains, tell them to talk to Barack.

  14. I think Obama wants to divert everyones’ attention from the real problem of lack of jobs. He had the passage of Obamacare, Super Storm Sandy school shooting at Sandy Hook & the gun control debate, immigration. He does not want people to have jobs. He wants them to be dependent on the government. Many of our problems would go away if there were more jobs.

  15. Unilateral, ie circumventing the other branches of the US government to push forward his own agenda. Another example of the tyranny that has become this administration.

    Obama has repeatedly shown his disdain for the co-equal branches of government, and whether due to bullying, blackmail, or other threats he seems to be able to force his will on so many in Congress and SCOTUS.

    IF the conservatives can hold on through 2014, keep the House and take the Senate, then and only then will the tyranny of this president be able to be stopped. As it is right now, he seems able to defect any and all criticisms and blame everyone and anyone but himself for the problems he and his administration have caused.

    A unilateral action regarding global warming should be seen by Congress as a violation of the Constitution, and grounds for removal from office. However, we have seen him violate the Constitution so many times over the past five years, that I am beginning to think the Congress does not know what its role in government is any longer.

  16. I tend not to leave many responses, but i did some searching and wound up here As Obama Speaks, Top Scientist
    Questions Warming Models | The Blog on Obama: White House Dossier.
    And I do have a few questions for you if you tend not to
    mind. Is it only me or does it look as if like
    some of the comments look as if they are left
    by brain dead individuals? :-P And, if you are writing on other places, I’d like to follow everything new you have to post. Would you make a list of every one of all your communal pages like your Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile?