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Dossier Forecast: Romney Wins the Election

by Keith Koffler on November 5, 2012, 3:31 pm

I believe Gov. Mitt Romney will win the election Tuesday by about three points in the popular vote and by a comfortable margin in the Electoral College.

After analyzing each of the swing states individually, my tally is Romney 321 electoral votes to 217 for President Obama.

I based my conclusions on polls, information I have gained from reading extensively about the election and – get this – my gut instinct.

With respect to the latter, that doesn’t mean I’m guessing. My instinct is based on what I have seen from various reports and from the feedback I get from you, which leads me to believe there is an earthquake rumbling beneath the electorate that the political Geiger counters in the mainstream media – and their affiliated pollsters – are not really detecting.

Over the weekend, I offered a more detailed analysis of why I think the polls are underestimating Romney’s strength.

I would add to this that the initial momentum Obama gained from his handling of Hurricane Sandy has probably dissipated by now, as people become refocused on the economy and see more video of desperate victims in need of food and FEMA. This, however, is not yet fully reflected in the polls, which are taken over several days.

Here’s my electoral map, which I did at 270towin:

Looking forward to hearing what you think. Let us know your Electoral College prediction too.

Leave a Comment

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{ 93 comments… read them below or add one }

RickW November 5, 2012 at 3:40 pm

Keith, modifying an old saying to accommodate technology “From your keyboard to God’s screen!” I still fear recounts, their dirty tricks, etc. That said, my g/f and I plan to open our local town hall tomorrow @ 6am, voting for Mitt. After that, its fingers crossed for a fair election.

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mikenlv November 5, 2012 at 3:42 pm

I hope you’re right about Nevada, but I’m pretty sure you’re wrong. Remember, this is the state that put Harry Reid back in office for six more years. There is a heavily Hispanic population here and those poor people think the democrats will give them free stuff, and will let the illegals in for free too.

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Janna November 5, 2012 at 4:54 pm

…and the people in NV will vote for a man who has already said ” I will NOT work with republicans”. Lovely.

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Keith Koffler November 5, 2012 at 5:01 pm

The economy is very bad in Nevada and it has a good number of Mormons. Also, Obama has been there a lot – they know they have trouble there. But it’s a close call.

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Shofar November 5, 2012 at 3:43 pm

Great minds think alike. That is exactly how I predicted it also on RCP. Keith, I hope and pray that you and I are correct.

Too many of the Dems have been taking PA, FL, and OH for granted. However, I just cannot see the major metro areas of PA taking the entire state, there are too many conservatives in the fly over portions. Same is true with OH. Florida will vote for the person they think will protect their future, and with the number of retirees that live there, they are smart enough to see what is going on with Obamacare, Medicare and Social Security. They will vote to keep things solvent for now, with options for the future generations. Plus, there is a large Jewish vote, and I hope to heaven they see this administration for what it is regarding Israel. Israel has been set afloat by Obama in a sea of hostility, and it does not bode well for the Israelis to have Obama in office for another four years.

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Elaine November 6, 2012 at 7:37 pm

I don’t see the Jewish vote going for Romney as the overwhelmingly majority are far leftists. American Jews are mostly irreligious, secular, and care nothing about whether Israel exists or not.

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Corey November 5, 2012 at 3:45 pm

Obviously one side is over inflating to try and get out the vote. I sure hope it’s not our side!

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JustSaying12 November 5, 2012 at 3:46 pm

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

I think Larry Sabato is right though it should be closer then that. Romney does not have the firepower that GWB had and the undecides are breaking for Obama.

I wish it weren’t the case but I said all along Obama look to squeeze out a victory here and I don’t see any evidence that Romney is going too.

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Star November 5, 2012 at 4:00 pm

So you have just been saying. Time will tell–all I can say. I think it will break for Romney…just based on everything.

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barkley pontree November 5, 2012 at 4:51 pm

I wonder what is going to happen in NY and NJ. All those people homeless who won’t know where to vote, or when they do will have spent a week with no power, no heat, no food, FEMA running out of water for two days, no gas.

I would think if I were living through that, I’d vote and make sure I voted against the current president, regardless of his or her party. I’d be pissed.

But you also could end up with really low turnout in NYC and the Jersey shore, wouldn’t it be ironic if NY went Red?

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blondie November 5, 2012 at 5:32 pm

When I mentioned voting to my friend in NJ,who is going on 8 days with no power,she about bit my head off. She says its all people can do to keep warm. They are in survival mode and have no power anyway to vote email or otherwise.

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Sadie November 5, 2012 at 5:41 pm

I have a friend in Long Island, same situation, blondie. The only thing keeping him warm is the thought of voting for R/R.

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barkley pontree November 5, 2012 at 9:16 pm

what part of Jersey? I use to live in Mannasquan and Asbury from 87 to 89 and I know they were both hit hard. I also wondered how the NJ residents were suppose to vote by email and fax; it’s like the auto mechanic when you call and tell him the car won’t start and he says drive it over and I’ll take a look at it….

I also wonder about preppers. I do some, mostly those instant foods, a couple of different water filters, a couple of guns and ammo, though I work on the theory never own more ammo than you can carry on your back, otherwise it’s worthless; but when I see these floods, it’s like, what good is all that stuff if it gets washed away?

barkleypontree.blogspot.com

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DennisT November 5, 2012 at 3:50 pm

It will have to be a massive win to overcome The Night of the Walking Dead” democratic voters.

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Langley Spook November 5, 2012 at 4:52 pm

I had a dope in my Chinese language class Sunday afternoon say ‘He will leave America if Romney wins’.

WOW… I didnt know how to response to such ignorance. Thankfully he then went on and wasted 10 minutes of the class as the “Laoshi” & I tried to explain a detail of the Pinyin system to him (again)

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Keith Koffler November 5, 2012 at 5:04 pm

LS – problem is, if you respond he might not leave . . .

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blondie November 5, 2012 at 5:36 pm

One of my good friends told me she is considering moving to Ireland if Romney wins!! She went there on vacation and was impressed. Aren’t they going bankrupt? I have news for her,when you live somewhere its not like a holiday. You don’t sit in pubs all day(or maybe you do). Anway,I hope she goes,I’ll have someone to stay with if I decide to go there on vacation.

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Sadie November 5, 2012 at 5:48 pm

Ireland 14% unemployment – unless she’s a sheep and intends to graze for food or is independently wealthy, plan a vacation elsewhere.

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Elaine November 6, 2012 at 7:39 pm

Ireland is more far left than America. Good luck to your friend.

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Bunker It Up November 5, 2012 at 3:51 pm

I think it is more likely Romney will win Wisconsin than Nevada. I have no feel on New Hampshire. i do think Romney will win Pennsylvnia and Ohio Iowa is another tough call .

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Langley Spook November 5, 2012 at 3:54 pm

Election Night my gut will be filled with booze. That way, no matter what happens I will be in the ‘proper mind-set’…
:-|

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Star November 5, 2012 at 4:01 pm

Sounds like “a plan” to me.

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Langley Spook November 5, 2012 at 4:45 pm

Romney has a “5 Point Plan”,
I have a “12 Bottle Plan”

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Janna November 5, 2012 at 4:55 pm

*hic*

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Not Nabob November 5, 2012 at 8:56 pm

Good idea but, Go aluminum, glass breaks, makes a mess, recycle cans and buy more brew.

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srdem65 November 5, 2012 at 3:54 pm

We all have our fingers crossed that MrRomney wil indeed get the win and put an end to the uncertainty of what’s next. As someone with a long background as a Dem and a family of Dems, we’ve made some changes we never thought would happen.

My cousin and his wife live in Toledo Ohio. They lost their home two years ago and the wife is hanging on by a thread to her job as a union (Teamster) dispatcher for a large trucking company that is downsizing due to lack of business and the high cost of diesel fuel,
My brother lives in Virgina and owns a cement finishing company that does mostly work for military installations and is afraid that MrO’s plan to cut military spending will put him out of business.
A dear Cousin lives in California, can’t afford her house, can’t afford to move, can’t afford to drive to work, and hates MrO’s “Dream Act” that put illegal Mexicans in front of what she calls real Americans.
Then there’s my sister-in-law who thinks MrO is a “dreamboat” and MrsO is the ‘best First Lady’ we’ve ever had.

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Star November 5, 2012 at 4:02 pm

Dreamboat. I need a nap.

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Sadie November 5, 2012 at 5:50 pm

I need Dramamine. ; )

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Mari November 5, 2012 at 10:38 pm

But who it’s getting their votes and when will your sister-in-law be officially committed?

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joelc November 5, 2012 at 4:06 pm

Keith, I have been telling my friends for months that Romney will win Pa. I agree with your projection with the exception of Nevada….that will be a tough one. Also, something not often discussed is the impact a big Romney win will have on the Senate. He could help pull several republicans over the finish line including Pa., Va., Fla and Ohio.
When they call Pa. for Romney everyone can go to bed.

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Keith Koffler November 5, 2012 at 5:06 pm

Nevada is iffie but I think Romney will get it.

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barkley pontree November 5, 2012 at 9:22 pm

I feel the same about MI. I’ve lived there a couple of times and when I lived in the Lansing area knew a few guys at the apartment complex or gym that all worked at the old BOC plant in Lansing. They had stickers on their cars for the dem governor candidate, did phone banks, but one of them told me a couple of them were voting for Engler. They had to play the game for the union but when they walked into the booth, it was screw the union leaders and vote republican. Also, once you get north of the I94 corridor, it’s very conservative, very pro gun, and mostly republican. That is why I leaned Romney in MI

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Elaine November 6, 2012 at 7:41 pm

Hard to believe MI voted in a Republican governor isn’t it? After Jennifer Grandholm (sp?) I guess that shouldn’t be such a surprise.

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Shofar November 5, 2012 at 4:07 pm

From the Washington Times: Retired top military brass push for Romney (http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/nov/4/retired-top-military-brass-push-romney/) A group of 500 retired generals and admirals took out a full page ad in support of Romney (http://media.washtimes.com/media/misc/2012/11/05/ad.pdf).

From the article, “The retired admirals and generals said they decided to take this public stand to try to head off “having to live through four more years of what has been experienced since January 20th, 2009.”

It’s about time someone starts to speak out about what they have seen first hand.

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Langley Spook November 5, 2012 at 5:02 pm

its nice to see that… but I just do not like-trust any of today’s “CYA, politically-correct” Generals or Admirals; especially from the JCS down…
NO ONE with ‘Stars’ has the guts to stand up to the political B.S. that infected-ruined the warrior ethos of the US Military, especailly under the so-called CINC Obama.

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gracepmc November 5, 2012 at 8:22 pm

True that.

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Julie Brueckheimer November 5, 2012 at 4:07 pm

Your electoral map seems pretty on the money. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Anyway you cut it, Obama is not going to sweep all five. I think Minnesota is a long shot. Dead right on Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

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Not Nabob November 5, 2012 at 9:01 pm

Julie you are probably correct. Minnesota has the insanely popular Senator Al Franken (D) as their voice in D.C.. Go figure it but they seem to like complete idiots to be in charge.

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JS November 5, 2012 at 4:08 pm

Obama wins. Massive voting fraud. Just a reflection of what the US has become. If you’re not cheating and lying, you’re not trying. You see it everywhere and from everyone.

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Susan November 5, 2012 at 5:24 pm

Joins us, my friend…conservatism is calling. We have strength in numbers. Take a few friends with you to the polls tomorrow and vote for love of country. We still have time to save America, but time is running short…

http://youtu.be/gsa4uLmTw0M

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Just2old November 6, 2012 at 6:48 am

Huckabee dubbed today “Mitt-Filet Day”. The lines here in Virginia already rival Chick-A-Filet support day. Go Mitt!

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lynne November 5, 2012 at 4:20 pm

we are hearing in my state il that r could take it. chgo and the rest of the state are diff. we are so tired of o and chgo here.

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ImNoDhimmi November 5, 2012 at 4:42 pm

Oh Keith, I so hope you’re right. The United States can’t afford four more years of Barry and the Mooch, and I’m not just talking about the economy.

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JBH November 5, 2012 at 4:42 pm

I have to give them Nevada (too much SEIU and other corrupt entities) and either Pennsylvania or Ohio but not both. One of these two will go red. The working Americans in the coal fields and other non-liberal institutions will push one of these states on the side of sanity.

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Mari November 5, 2012 at 10:41 pm

Why anyone, union or not would vote for someone who tried to destroy their visitor and convention business is beyond my comprehension.

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barkley pontree November 5, 2012 at 4:47 pm

Keith, great minds think alike, I hope. I did the same map back in August, except we flip on MI and PA

http://barkleypontree.blogspot.com/2012/08/presidential-predictions.html

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Sadie November 5, 2012 at 5:25 pm

Kevin DuJan at Hillbuzz: O-216, R-322 mirrors Keith’s call as well.

The Left has been assured by Nate Silver that there is an 80% chance of Obama winning so they are not mentally prepared to see a map where Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are in Romney’s hands. Expect epic freakouts on MSNBC over this. And then never expect to hear from Nate Silver ever again. He will need to go into hiding like Salman Rushdie.

http://hillbuzz.org/final-2012-election-predictions-romney-wins-white-house-gop-keeps-house-and-republicans-take-senate-100-chance-that-nate-silvers-career-collapses-into-ruin-25460

Keith, my kishkas (gut) must look like the inside of a golf ball today, ’cause they sure as hell feel like it. The last time I felt this type of anticipation was the last time I gave birth. I hope my vote tomorrow, gives birth to a “nation” tomorrow – it’s been a long labor.

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Barkley Pontree November 5, 2012 at 9:25 pm

I usually watch Fox, but if Romney gets PA, OH, VA, and FL, I’m going over to MSNBLBGTC to see who commits suicide on camera.

barkleypontree.blogspot.com

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Mari November 5, 2012 at 10:33 pm

They were great after the first debate. I think they should receive an Emmy nomination for tragic comedy for that night alone. Imagine what tomorrow could bring when Romney wins.

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TimG November 6, 2012 at 5:35 am

Excellent Post Barkley!
It has been puzzling to see Romney that far behind in an election where the sitting fraud has done such a poor job and I hope WHD’s projection is correct.
If so that feeling in CM’s leg may not be tingly!

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Mari November 5, 2012 at 10:30 pm

Sadie, I don’t think I was this nervous/scared/excited when I did give birth! Praying this analysis is correct.

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Sadie November 5, 2012 at 11:06 pm

Me too!

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Mark Holbrook November 5, 2012 at 5:27 pm

Keith: Along with agreeing with your assessment of the election outcome, I think Biden’s “firewall” of support for Obama will go the way of Gore’s “lock box” for Social Security.

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Keith Koffler November 5, 2012 at 9:34 pm

He can put the firewall in the lock box.

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lc southern November 5, 2012 at 5:27 pm

Praying your right! Either way Honey Jack and I will be watching together.

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Frederick November 5, 2012 at 5:33 pm

If the number of yard signs is an indication, then you need to add Michigan to Romney’s numbers. I drove from West Michigan well into the UP last weekend (500 miles one way). You can literally go MILES without seeing an Obama sign but Romney/Ryan & Take back our Country Now signs are at least every quarter mile in the country and block in the cities. With Detroit and Flint now a ‘ghost cities’ of vacant houses there is more than enough motivated Republicans starting at Lansing west to Lake Michigan for this to happen.
I don’t think Romney will take Nevada though, too many democratic Hispanics.

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Elaine November 6, 2012 at 7:44 pm

Born in MI. Hopefully, the majority there finally got the message that union thugs, Democrats and black Muslims don’t have their best interests at heart.

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blondie November 5, 2012 at 5:42 pm

I am feeling pretty optimistic tonight,but still won’t believe it until I see it. I hope Romney wins huge so we don’t have to go through the BS of rechecking everything. If it looks like Romney is going to win,I will make an exception for the night tomorrow and watch MSNBC. It will be my extreme pleasure to watch those people implode!!
Keith ,tomorrow could you start a thread for ground reporting on voting in their areas? I love hearing how its going across the country.
Thanks

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Oregon Jarhead November 5, 2012 at 5:46 pm

Keith, for the sake of our country, I sure hope you’re right.

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Brenda A. November 6, 2012 at 1:52 am

Me too.

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Comas November 5, 2012 at 5:55 pm

If Romney wins Nevada, then it means he won in a landslide and Vegas will prosper in spite of themselves (knowing Vegas will vote for O, even if Nevada goes red). O wins the election then everyone will save every nickel they can knowing even tougher times lie ahead. Vegas will be the last place people will want to visit.

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AZ Granny November 5, 2012 at 6:16 pm

NBC already called it for Obama. That’s no big surprise, but I’m a nervous nellie today and my stomach is in knots. Hoping and praying this prediction is correct!!!

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Sadie November 5, 2012 at 7:14 pm

Just visited enemy territory – Huffpo, to measure “enthusiasm” – they’re already in defensive mode (commenters). You’d think after worshipping their guy for the last four years, they’d be up and peppy – they are not. They’re nervous nellies, too – very nervous. One of the more interesting things I’ve noticed is the absence of the “left” posting here and on other sites as well – something pollsters can’t/don’t take into account.

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Langley Spook November 5, 2012 at 8:46 pm

Good point;
Where are the Obama trolls that show-up here sometimes and always have ‘snarky’ comments to attempt to insult we readers of WHD & conservatives/Republicans…?

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gracepmc November 5, 2012 at 8:24 pm

NBC doesn’t really have a choice. They are in so deep with Obama.

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Sadie November 5, 2012 at 9:23 pm

grace – deep enough to be wearing a body condom. ; )

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sportinlife10 November 5, 2012 at 6:51 pm

…can’t do the polls anymore, unless I go into treatment (growth industry here in MN). Back atcha tomorrow. Actually the treatment industry doesn’t want me either. Cuh.

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Langley Spook November 5, 2012 at 8:47 pm

I miss MN sometimes… :-)

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Anonna November 5, 2012 at 7:14 pm

Have you factored in all the votes for BO that will be found in the trunks of cars, etc., if the race is really close?

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Brenda A. November 6, 2012 at 1:53 am

Or the dead people voting in FL?

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blondie November 5, 2012 at 7:30 pm

I’ve been looking for a sign that maybe the Dems are not so confident as they say. I believe I found it. Stefanie Cutter asking Dems to stay calm if early numbers don’t look good.

http://politicker.com/2012/11/obama-campaign-to-supporters-dont-panic-over-early-exit-polls/

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gracepmc November 5, 2012 at 8:25 pm

Steffy the Cutter does calm?

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Guillermo Grande November 5, 2012 at 8:00 pm

Yup. I’m with you Keith and I think this is going to be a short night. We should have pretty good idea after the PA and OH polls close.

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Tony Lima November 5, 2012 at 8:46 pm

I get 328 — pretty much the same as Keith, but I have Oregon going to Romney. (Always like to live on the edge.) Read it at http://gonzoecon.com/2012/10/mitt-romney-and-paul-ryan-will-win-in-a-landslide/

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Not Nabob November 5, 2012 at 8:53 pm

I and many Americans who will vote Tomorrow are thinking exactly as you are feeling. The current resident at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is out for himself and his cohorts. I will be shocked if Romney and Ryan do not win. Hopefully it will be a margin enough to keep it out of Obama’s friendly judicial courts of appeals.

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Toothy Spook November 5, 2012 at 9:04 pm

Hey Democrat,
“You broke my heart so, I busted your jaw.”

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scottso November 5, 2012 at 9:07 pm

unless NY keeps the polls open past election day, i’m going to say Romney will take NY.

If those folks in NYC can’t vote in their usual numbers then it could go Red.

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Jeff November 5, 2012 at 9:07 pm

Im the same with a possible squeak by here in Michigan for Romney as well.The unions have 3 things on the ballot and everyone else doesnt like it..Those 3 things are hated and 60/40 to be denied..Those votes will go to Romney

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Mari November 5, 2012 at 11:07 pm

Just thinking that even better than msnbc when O loses will be watching him give a graceful concession speech. I wonder if he has it in him. He might just tell Romney that this mess is all his now and he’s going on vacation on his government pension and giving high paid speeches. I won’t be surprised of he ends it with “See ya, suckers!”

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Phil November 6, 2012 at 1:26 am

Agree with your assessment. Hopefully America will realize how this president has not accomplished anything that has benefited the country economically – the stimulus failed, shovel ready failed, food stamps increased, unemployment increased and instead Obama rammed Obamacare down the throats of Americans when he full control of both houses, complete with the Cornhusker Kickback. Now he is covering up four American deaths in Benghazi and the unemployment rate spiked. America you need to not be drawn into the Obama smooth oration of lies to your face and vote intelligently for someone who has experience in being a leader and has a plan to create jobs and bring respect back to this great nation! VOTE OBAMA OUT!

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Brenda A. November 6, 2012 at 1:58 am

Thank you for this, Keith. I go from feeling confident to being as worried as can be. I fear Romney winning the popular and Obama the electoral.

We really can’t take four more years of this. America as we know it will be unrecognizable.

Hoping for a happy 7th of November.

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Greg Smith November 6, 2012 at 3:22 am

My money is on Romney with William Hill so hopefully you’re right! As an American living in the UK since 1989 and a life-long Democrat, I voted by post for Romney a month ago and I believe that many people will be making the switch with me.

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Brenda A. November 6, 2012 at 1:03 pm

Greg, just curious; did you vote for Obama in the last election? Was there one factor or many that caused you to vote for Romney? If you wouldn’t mind giving insight to your vote; I would appreciate it.

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TimG November 6, 2012 at 5:45 am

Keith,
Bold prediction and I hope it is correct. It would be hard to believe there are that many clueless voters who would give the current president another 4 years. I questioned as to why Romney wasn’t doing better in the polls for months now and it is still hard to grasp why it is this close. If our country is moving that far left we have many issues to overcome. Thanks for all the great coverage through the race.

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KaptKangaroo November 6, 2012 at 8:37 am

You are one of the only folks to think PA will go for Romney. I happen to agree with you. Having spent years there and believing OH is a head-fake, winning PA allows Romney the victory. I actually think PA is the game changer.

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George November 6, 2012 at 11:28 am

If the electoral college is the one that picks the president, then why do the people even need to vote? The sheeple think its the popular vote that elects the president. Maybe in a Democracy…not in this Republic.. I’m glad this check and balance is here because it saves all of us the idiot mob rule.. now if we can infuse some intelligence into the electoral college somehow…

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Gerlinde Stevens November 6, 2012 at 12:39 pm

RANMEY has to win so USA stay USA

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Mari November 6, 2012 at 12:57 pm

Too much cheating in Philly to win PA? I hope not but damn they are being so obvious that I wonder what they are doing behind the scenes…

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Reverend Joe Sondrup November 6, 2012 at 4:11 pm

I believe Romney will win and I pray you are right about over 300 Electoral Votes. That would not leave much room for OBAMA’s goons to press the issue legally.

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michelle November 6, 2012 at 5:14 pm

this is the second prediction of Romney getting the electoral college. (which i wish we would get rid of) hopefully, this will come true.

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George November 8, 2012 at 5:30 am

Its a good thing the GOP didn’t nominate Ron Paul because he was unelectable… maybe next time they’ll listen to the people and stop being Dick(s) Morris’s… the independents could have made this a win if Paul was the candidate.. I’m officially leaving the GOP..

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JakeF November 8, 2012 at 5:22 pm

Is the punditocracy going to pay attention to Nate Silver at fivethirtyeightblog.com next time?

He accurately predicted 49 states and DC correctly, with Florida (which he had slightly for Romney) still out.

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