I believe Gov. Mitt Romney will win the election Tuesday by about three points in the popular vote and by a comfortable margin in the Electoral College.
After analyzing each of the swing states individually, my tally is Romney 321 electoral votes to 217 for President Obama.
I based my conclusions on polls, information I have gained from reading extensively about the election and – get this – my gut instinct.
With respect to the latter, that doesn’t mean I’m guessing. My instinct is based on what I have seen from various reports and from the feedback I get from you, which leads me to believe there is an earthquake rumbling beneath the electorate that the political Geiger counters in the mainstream media – and their affiliated pollsters – are not really detecting.
Over the weekend, I offered a more detailed analysis of why I think the polls are underestimating Romney’s strength.
I would add to this that the initial momentum Obama gained from his handling of Hurricane Sandy has probably dissipated by now, as people become refocused on the economy and see more video of desperate victims in need of food and FEMA. This, however, is not yet fully reflected in the polls, which are taken over several days.
Here’s my electoral map, which I did at 270towin:
Looking forward to hearing what you think. Let us know your Electoral College prediction too.