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How The Polls Understate Romney’s Support

by Keith Koffler on November 4, 2012, 10:56 am

President Obama is leading by a bit in many of the national and state polls out over the past week. But I think if you see Obama up by a point or two in a poll, you can probably assume Gov. Mitt Romney will actually come out on top on Election Day. And if Obama is up 3 or maybe four points, it’s still likely just about a dead heat.

Here’s why.

  • I think some of the polls are understating the number of Republicans in the electorate, sometimes rather dramatically so. This is not going to be the 2008 race, and some polls are assuming similar turnout by Party identification. This is where the bias of individual pollsters can creep in.
  • Pollsters are not successfully measuring the emotion out there among Republicans for electing Romney and deposing Obama. Republicans will be going to the polls in droves.
  • Countering this somewhat is the Obama ground game, which is better organized than Romney’s. But Romney has a lot of people out in the field too, and I don’t think knocking on doors is going to overcome a surge of GOP passion.
  • I think that some people don’t tell pollsters the truth because they don’t want them to think poorly of them for opposing Obama. There are several reasons for this, including that they don’t want to be perceived as racist and they don’t want to admit they support the less fashionable candidate.
  • In 2008, pollsters overestimated Obama’s strength on average by about 1.4 percentage points. And this was during a race in which Obama had the vastly superior ground game and the passion was all on his side. Rasmussen, who today has the race tied both nationally and in Ohio and Wisconsin, did the most accurate final poll.

I don’t think there is a conspiracy among pollsters to support Obama, though I do think bias creeps in. And I don’t think it’s a good idea to ignore polling as completely unreliable, as some suggest.

But I do think Obama’s support is being overestimated, and that if Romney is very close, he wins.

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Moe November 4, 2012 at 11:05 am

None of these polls express the sentiment of 2010, all are comparing past Presidential elections. Will all those voters from 2010 stay home? Don’t think so. I’m very confident we are going to pull this off, okay I finally said it!

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Julie Brueckheimer November 4, 2012 at 11:25 am

That is such a good point. The polls are based on 2008 and don’t consider 2010 which the pollsters and pundits have forgotten was a referendum on Obama and Obamacare. The sentiments from that election have not dissipated.

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Will Ellingham November 4, 2012 at 11:09 am

“I think that some people don’t tell pollsters the truth because they don’t want them to think poorly of them for opposing Obama. There are several reasons for this, including that they don’t want to be perceived as racist and they don’t want to admit they support the less fashionable candidate.”
Keith, you may have nailed it here, and this phenomenon has been largely overlooked. I believe that this could well be an overwhelmingly deciding factor. Many who oppose Obama have kept it quiet for fear of being ostracized by friends and at work. It’s just too volatile, and sadly so, but the way it is.

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 12:56 pm

I can only speak for myself, and even I have to admit I can be a bit of a curmudgeon, but whenever a pollster calls, my initial reaction to their questions is a (I hope) polite “None of your beeswax!!!!”. I suspect more conservatives have this reaction than liberals, who seem to wish to inflict their opinion on everyone whenever the opportunity presents itself.

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Not Nabob November 4, 2012 at 11:18 am

JoKe Biden surely has said this at some time or another: “Polls are for strippers and firemen.”

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 12:58 pm

Or, “The Polls are fine people, no matter HOW many of them it takes to screw in a lightbulb.”

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cincycinco November 5, 2012 at 8:10 am

Polls? Strippers? Is there ANOTHER “voting Obama is like having sex” commercial coming out?

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DeniseVB November 4, 2012 at 11:21 am

At this point in 1980, Reagan and Carter were tied. Reagan went on to win 489 electoral votes. Believe ! Because Obama is so much worse than Carter ;)

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 4:42 pm

Except for one thing – the demographics were quite different back in 1980. Still trying to believe.:)

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Larry November 4, 2012 at 11:21 am

I am not sure about the superior ground game that OfA has. Who is reporting about this superiority? The press. This is the same super organization who forgot to announce that Stevie Wonder was playing yesterday for Obama, and 200 people showed up. I am sorry, but I could post that Stevie Wonder is playing at my house is 2 hours, and I would have thousands of people here.

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Julie Brueckheimer November 4, 2012 at 11:22 am

I think your fourth point is dead on. Some people are holding their cards to their chests. One Jewish spokesman reminded fellow Jews that no one is going to know who you voted for in the voting booth. And then there are the “Nons” like my husband and myself: Obama had the independents overwhelmingly in 2008, but it is reversed today. Romney has us.

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OvertheOs November 4, 2012 at 11:32 am

there is a quiet, determined movement that has grown steadily since the president and lawmakers pushed Obamacare down the throats of Americans. Not a lot of attention has been focused on this. In cafes, diners, truck stops, buses, etc the movement has been growing person to person. Attentive politicians, once solidly aligned with Obama, have been disassociating their alliance. Pollsters do not contact these everyday Americans. Most of them will not take a survey. But they talk to other Americans, their friends, neighbors, family members, shopkeepers, bus drivers, even casual friends in their favorite eating places.
Most Americans go about their life quietly, power asking little, speaking less. Their power and influence will be heard Tuesday. Just because one side is loud doesn’t make them right.

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lc southern November 4, 2012 at 2:37 pm

I think you nailed it. Obamacare was the beginning of the end, 2010 should have been a bellwether for politicians…they have yet to get it. Tuesday will tale the tale, but I think Romney in a landslide. People are tired of polling, debates and just don’t answer the questions they will just vote.

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Martha Trowbridge November 4, 2012 at 11:39 am

The 2012 election = 2010 + 2 years additional rage build-up at what “Obama” has done to destroy America.

Add to this Benghazi, the multiple Obama Campaign disgusting ads + over-the-top lies, and Obama’s insane rants of late.

The Obama Campaign would have fared better had they kept Obama off-camera.

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joelc November 4, 2012 at 11:41 am

I don’t post often but I said several weeks ago that I thought Pa. was in play.
The pros still say “no way”. I live in central Pa. I haven’t seen this kind of emotion since 1980. I guarantee republicans are motivated. In 2008 Penn State Univ. was electified with Obama support, today you hear almost nothing from the student population.
This is coal country….Obama declared war on us 4 years ago. That very fact puts western Pa. in play for republicans.
Don’t be surprised if Pa. goes for Romney and he pulls a republican senator across the finish line along with him.

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Shofar November 4, 2012 at 5:54 pm

Joel – Ex wife #1 is from western PA, Sharon area, and her family is deep into the coal business. Her and her entire family are what Obama called the bitter clingers, and the majority of their friends are the same. In talking to her, and my own kids (who talk to their aunts and uncles) western and central PA seem to be going strongly R&R, and can’t wait to see the O Team gone.

Her family are great people, conservative in a lot of areas, and wanting to be able to make a living without having the government telling them what to do. They hunt, go to church, and believe in themselves. I think too many in the media forget that there is something beyond Philly and Pittsburgh.

The same is true in New York. The media and pollsters only look at New York as being NYC, but forget that there is a lot of state out there that is far different than the City. Romney may not pull New York due to the City vote, but I can see areas like the Finger Lakes, Jamestown and upstate areas going for Romney. On the upside, with all that has happened in NYC, and the massive difference in how things were handled – Manhattan vs. Staten Island, some NYC Dems may just stay home to “punish” and get “revenge” on the current administration.

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OverTheOs November 4, 2012 at 6:23 pm
AZ Granny November 4, 2012 at 6:43 pm

Our economy is so fragile it won’t be able to withstand a $700 billion loss of coal industry. We will plunge into a depression that we won’t be able to dig ourselves out of.

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Susan November 4, 2012 at 7:59 pm

Just watched Romney’s rally in Pennsylvania. Wow, what an amazing sight to see. His plane was delayed, yet a huge crowd stuck it out in the cold weather and were very enthusiastic. Obama will regret telling his followers that voting is the best revenge. When Romney said don’t vote for revenge, vote for love of country the place erupted. I can almost feel it in my bones…Romney is going to win this election.

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Guillermo Grande November 4, 2012 at 11:47 am

Good analysis as always Keith. It’s hard to reconcile a D+ equal to or greater than 2008 in light of the 2010 shellacking and the lack of Obama support in recent rally’s. Reading into the detail of the Stevie Wonder Bus Tour, the Obama enthusiasm would seem dramatically down or the Libby Libs have already voted. (Note: Libby Libs isn’t really redundant…it’s more like hopelessly Liberal…but I digress…)

Emotion is a huge part and conservative turn out and a growing portion of the indies are vacillating between madder than hell and scared to death. Apparently Libby Libs are comfortable with Hell and Death.. but I digress. The democrat ground game is substantial, but then how to reconcile the Stevie Wonder Bus Tour results above?

Just finished with a RCP create your own map. Starting with the RCP defaults, I score CO, FL, VA, and NC to Romney for 257. I think this is an easy call for these four. So here is the skinny: any win in OH, PA, or MI would give RR the win. This might be a short night.

Or, the combo effect kicks in with IA (6) or NV(6) and just about anything else. If RR wins only IA and NV (269), the craziness of ME comes in with split electoral vote allocations of 4 and most likely leads to a Wednesday conversation. As much as I want to see OR flip, it won’t happen without the college 18-29’s flipping. Nationally, if 18-29 move towards RR, Oregon results will be too late in the night and RR would have picked up OH, PA, or MI by then. If it comes down to waiting on OR it is going to be four more years of winter.

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 11:48 am

Keith, it’s the eleventh hour, but please take a look at these two articles involving Obama and the now defunct Chicago Climate Exchange. Obama has been eerily silent on climate change for the last 4 years, except for his Convention speech when he uncharacteristically made a reference: ” Global warming is NOT a hoax”! After hurricane Sandy, Bloomberg endorsed Obama on the basis of climate change, while, at the same time, making a scathing attack on his failed policies.

The following stories connect the dots to what could conceivably turn out to be the scam of the century if Obama is relected. The cast of characters is shocking: the Clintons, Al Gore, Bill Ayers, a friend of Obama’s
Mother, the Pritzkers, Shore Bank, Tony Rezko, and numerous other DEM luminaries and financiers.

This scam failed the first time around, but what’s to stop Obama from jump-starting the Chicago Climate Exchange and the phony deriviatives in his second term? Everyone invovled stands to become filthy rich.including Obama. Cap and (Tax) Trade failed the first time around, but we can be assured Obama will pass it next time around – by hook or by crook!

WHAT REALLY HAPPENED: THE SHOREBANK, OBAMA, AND THE CHICAGO CLIMATE EXHANGE SCAM
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/shorebank.php

OBAMA’S INVOLVEMENT IN THE CHICAGO CLIMATE EXCHANGE: THE REST OF THE STORY

http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/9629

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Guillermo Grande November 4, 2012 at 12:14 pm

Girly1, this story has been kicking around for a while. To your question, what is to stop Obama from jump starting the exchange in a second term? Nothing. Tuesday is a vital day in future course of America. Now, I no longer think Obama is going to win this fairly in any way shape or form. But if he does slip into a second term, he will immediately consolidate any remaining power around him, purge opposing opinion, regulate everything, and subjugate and subvert the judiciary. Elected officials will be useless tools in an unneeded shed of ideas. Don’t forget to vote!

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veritaseequitas November 4, 2012 at 12:19 pm

If Obama does somehow win this election we have his “rule” over us for the next 4 years to worry about and we also have the consolidation and entrenchment of leftist power over the next 4 years to worry about. It is a very scary thought indeed.

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 2:10 pm

The Obama administration will go down as the most reptilian administration in history. Another 4 years is unthinkable.

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Not Nabob November 5, 2012 at 12:15 am

You mention reptilian, you must have Eric “Skunk Snake” Holder in mnd.

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creeper November 4, 2012 at 12:58 pm

Thanks for the links, Girly1.

The Canada Free Press article cites the Joyce Foundation as being among the primary drivers of the Chicago Climate Exchange.

It’s worth noting that the Joyce Foundation was started by Beatrice Joyce, who was from my home town. Her money came from the Joyce Lumber Company, which stripped the forests of the upper Mississippi River valley down to bare soil and floated them down the river to their sawmills. When the lumber was gone “Beady” closed the sawmills and decamped to Chicago to live the good life with her money, leaving the residents of the area her company had denuded to cope with the damage and lost jobs. While the Joyce Foundation was started in 1948 it wasn’t until her death in 1972 that it came into real money…more than a hundred million dollars.

Joyce’s “charitable” foundation, according to its web page, plows money into such beloved liberal causes as the Great Lakes environment, culture, politics and gun violence prevention but has not, so far as I can determine, spent one red cent to undo her company’s years of devastation of the forests.

Think Andrew Carnegie, who got rich on the backs of steelworkers and then tried to buy respectability with libraries.

Make no mistake. The Joyce Foundation is, as was the Joyce Lumber Company, all about money. That leopard has not changed its spots.

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 1:40 pm

Thanks for the background on the Joyce Foundation, Creeper. Seems they also funded the brother of Bill Ayres, John Ayres, in his’ Chicago School Initiatives. Hope they lost a bundle on the Exchange!

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 3:12 pm

Read it and weep…

HOW DID BARACK OBAMA BECOME PRESIDENT? A SERIES OF UNRELATED COINCIDENCES, CONNECTIONS ….

http://www.libertynewsonline.com

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Star November 4, 2012 at 11:49 am

I cling to every word of this–clinger that I am. I feel like I have relative on life support and am waiting for “the call.” And I am also trying to think ahead–trying to get this guy out has been a major focus of my life. If he stays due to the lack of attention of the public or his own propaganda success, I will be watching the last days of a great country–in my lifetime. I am getting numb.

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Guillermo Grande November 4, 2012 at 11:56 am

Oh Star..be on the bright side! Polls for OH, MI, and PA will be closed by 8:00 eastern. This is going to be over soon enough and we can all rejoice. (but i know what how you feel)

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Star November 4, 2012 at 12:03 pm

Thanks, GG. I guess watching Meet the Depressed would be a bad idea, huh? Even if I could figure out when it’s on–we don’t go on daylight out here in the Great Hated State of Arizona.

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 12:08 pm

I hear you, Star! We have been waiting 4 years for this day. Now that is is practically upon us, I can’t eat or sleep. It’s like waiting for the Exorcist to arrive! Will he get here in time? Please, God!

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Star November 4, 2012 at 12:14 pm

Oh–I can eat. Where did I put that chocolate cake?

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Guillermo Grande November 4, 2012 at 12:16 pm

LOL… yeah… like things are getting worse, please send Chocolate?

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Star November 4, 2012 at 12:23 pm

Exactly!

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Star November 4, 2012 at 12:49 pm

Speaking of God, Girly1, that Savannah someone from Today said God sent the hurricane to make women like Obama. That would be God–who? Not the God I think of. These people just don’t make sense anymore.

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 1:56 pm

Everyone said Guthrie (I think that’s her last name) was an intellectual lightweight when she replaced Meredith Viera (I think that’s who she replaced) on TODAY. As you can see, I don’t watch the show – are Matt Lauer and Al Roker still there? More reasons not to watch,

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gracepmc November 4, 2012 at 7:26 pm

NBC — all lightweights.

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 1:08 pm

I feel your pain Star. I’m not a dessert kinda guy but maybe a big plate of chili-cheese fries??

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Star November 4, 2012 at 1:32 pm

I’m in. I am really more “savory” in my anguish.

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MT for re-redistribution November 5, 2012 at 2:08 am

“Waiting for the exorcist to arrive” LIKE!!

Romney’s debate coach:
“Especially important is the warning to avoid conversations with the demon. We may ask what is relevant but anything beyond that is dangerous. He is a liar. The demon is a liar. He will lie to confuse us. But he will also mix lies with the truth to attack us. The attack is psychological, Mitt, and powerful. So don’t listen to him. Remember that – do not listen. “

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MT for re-redistribution November 5, 2012 at 2:10 am

(that was from The Exorcist by the way)

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Swedishlady November 4, 2012 at 12:16 pm

Star, this election is extremely nerve-racking. Therefor I am so grateful for analyses like Keiths. Thank you, Keith, this reading made me feel good. Here, in our ill informed media , we constantly hear that the polls show that O will win. Of course I don´t trust them at all as they rely on American MSM. And as Guillermo Grande writes, hopefully we will rejoice very soon.

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Star November 4, 2012 at 12:24 pm

You will see me doing the Dance of Joy, feet a blur like Snoopy doing his Easter Dance. Well, maybe not a blur–the arthritis, you know…but moving.

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Swedishlady November 4, 2012 at 1:01 pm

Oh, I would love to see that, Star !

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Star November 4, 2012 at 1:37 pm

I am up for Pay Per View–anyone?

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Star November 4, 2012 at 1:39 pm

Oh–and thanks for believing that not all Americans are lockstep idiots, Swedish Lady. The book here is that most people across the pond hold us in contempt.

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 3:53 pm

I was thinking more along the lines of Ed Grimley dancing. ; )
ENJOY!
http://youtu.be/YvbQKSaYQD8

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Star November 4, 2012 at 3:54 pm

LOL–yes, much closer in my case.

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gracepmc November 4, 2012 at 7:28 pm

Star — Mosey on over to http://hillbuzz.org/ . They will keep you energized and make you laugh as well.

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gracepmc November 4, 2012 at 7:29 pm

Keith, of course, remains our No. #1 Go To Guy!

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AFVET November 4, 2012 at 12:07 pm

The true ‘poll’ will be determined at the voting booth.
Here we have the real effort to steal the election from Romney.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/11/naacp_takes_over_houston_polling_place.html

This is the enemy we face.

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 12:09 pm

Agree, AFVET. Voter fraud – our biiggest fear.

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Susan November 4, 2012 at 2:00 pm

Those NAAPC members are Sheila Jackson Lee constituents, AFVET. Obama doesn’t have a chance in Texas, but SJL is used to buying votes this way. No wonder the commiecrats in the Congressional Black Caucus hate the Tea Party so much. They’re impeding their ability to steal elections.

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Star November 4, 2012 at 3:55 pm

Is she the woman with the weird hair hat?

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Susan November 4, 2012 at 4:21 pm

No, she is famous for sporting a triple crown hair weave. She also believes Vietnam is still divided…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK3rTUgoQD4

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 4:41 pm

Not to be confused with Cynthia McKinney – then again, they’re interchangeable.

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 7:52 pm

It was Ms McKinney who appeared in Libya a couple of years ago, seated on a throne, wearing what appeared to be royal robes, telling the camera what a great man Qadhafi is. I think its important to keep the nutcases straight!

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nellyq November 4, 2012 at 4:53 pm

As Michael Barry says, she is the “Congress WOman!!!!!”

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creeper November 4, 2012 at 12:11 pm

I don’t think the pollsters even believe their own numbers. There are so many obstacles to accurate polling…cell phones, 9% response, lies by those who do respond…that polls are now essentially meaningless.

They’re just going through the motions. Tuesday will bring the death of polling as we know it.

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veritaseequitas November 4, 2012 at 12:15 pm

Anybody see Axelrod on Fox News Sunday this morning? He was going on and on about how Romney was campaigning in Ohio, Virginia and Florida over the next couple days because he is just so desperate for votes in those states.
Just scroll down on WHD and see where Obama is campaigning today….New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, and Colorado. Does that mean he is desperate for votes or does he just have a lot of friends in those states?
As I’ve heard it said time and again, the only poll that matters is the one on 06 Nov.

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blondie November 4, 2012 at 12:22 pm

As my husband says,”if a pollster asked me who I was voting for ,I would lie and say Obama. I don’t want retribution”. I think alot of people are lying or just not ,as Keith pointed out.
Before the storm,I felt a Romney win in the air,and then Sandy came and for whatever reason,it stalled because one photo op made Obama look Presidential. I’m starting to feel the Romney wave alittle again today. Anyone else?

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AFVET November 4, 2012 at 12:27 pm

Benghazi is not going to go away.
That is a tremendous millstone hanging on Obama.
Problem is, too many people don’t know or care about it.

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MT for re-redistribution November 5, 2012 at 2:18 am

A lot of people, especially left-leaning, don’t care about Benghazi, they think it is a railroad job by the right. Trumped up much-ado-about-nothing. I think it’s absolutely treasonous, and he should be removed from office. No lame duck period for the commie-in-chief. How believable is he now when he says “We got your back” when he clearly doesn’t? Talk about encouraging the enemy, they have to be planning attacks like mad now, since they know the US military will just watch from a drone’s camera.

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Guillermo Grande November 4, 2012 at 12:35 pm

As vested as we are in this election a degree of fatigue does set in. However the “…vote for revenge” comment shock a few people back to their senses. Romney has a great close with this point. It has been hard to reconcile what I see with my own eyes and how these polls are working out. There is a long but thorough article here that explains much of what is happening with the polls: http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2012/10/post.php

(And yes veritaseequitas, I did see Axlerod this morning briefly before I was able to locate the remote control)

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AFVET November 4, 2012 at 12:46 pm

http://www.unskewedpolls.com
A different view of what we are being fed in the news media.

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takeahint November 4, 2012 at 12:49 pm

(I did see Axlerod this morning briefly before I was able to locate the remote control)
sharp! love it!

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Star November 4, 2012 at 12:58 pm

I was going to say his couch cushions are Dems!

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 1:05 pm

I have to keep the remote control away from my wife whenever Asslerod comes on. Those flat screens are just too fragile!!

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Star November 4, 2012 at 1:34 pm

Just saw that dweeb Plouffe on MTP. Who will rid me of these meddlesome operatives?

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Star November 4, 2012 at 3:53 pm

I wonder how “presidential” he would look going to Staten Island or NJ again TODAY? How much hugging would he get from thirsty people who had watched old ladies drown on the first floors of their houses before anyone could get to them? Would he hand out FEMA’s url to people with no wifi or even electricity?

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Jack November 4, 2012 at 12:54 pm

Good piece, indeed. Thank you Mr. Koffler.

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SAllen November 4, 2012 at 7:18 pm

I agree! So glad Mr. Koffler has kept us updated with non-biased news from the political front! And Star, I have also been feeling your pain; with the exact same feelings. Lets all hope we are rejoicing on Wed!!

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Larry November 4, 2012 at 1:05 pm

I predict sometime between Wed and Fri, Hillary will release something related to Bengazi, that will bring Obama down and protect her legacy.

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gracepmc November 4, 2012 at 7:51 pm

Clinton’s legacy cannot be protected. Dismal failure. But she sure is good at standing by her man.

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Guillermo Grande November 4, 2012 at 1:07 pm

Yes indeed. That helps to make the call for RR on FL, VA, and NC. CO is the tightest of those four but has RR up slightly even with a D+ 3.5. Of the other three (MI, PA, and OH) Romney is doing better in OH. PA and MI are still pretty tight. I’m putting my money on OH and RR because they seem to be polling beyond the margin of error, fraud, and a SWAG on the inflated D+.

It might have been Crank or another article, but the Likely Voter (LV) screen was reported to be looser this year since it was taking too many dials to get to LVs. Meaning more polls reflect what would have been registered voters. Combine that with the inflated D+, lower number of voters polled, and the loose screen, these polls are at risk for over estimating Liberal enthusiasm and turn out. Some of these polls have low LV counts(~ 500) and D+ greater than 5. Huge opportunity for error that is not shown in the reported results. (Note, I am not a statistician, but I did sleep in my own bed last night.)

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Guillermo Grande November 4, 2012 at 1:10 pm

fat fingers (can’t splain it) but this was supposed to post as a reply to AFVET November 4, 2012 at 12:46 pm
http://www.unskewedpolls.com
A different view of what we are being fed in the news media.

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jack November 4, 2012 at 1:16 pm

My wife and her girlfriends are so tired of the pollsters calling that they are lying to them. They are telling them that they are going to vote for the Obama. So don’t trust the polls.

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Star November 4, 2012 at 1:35 pm

I am so mad! I did not get one robocall or poll! Just that “Attention power company customers” idiot about every 5 mins.

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AFVET November 4, 2012 at 4:22 pm

Consider yourself lucky.
Here in Ohio the damn thing rings every 5 minutes.

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 6:09 pm

I got a call from the NRA reminding me to be sure and get out and vote for Romney. When I told them I lived in California the nice woman just said “Sorry to have bothered you”. Bit I still like to vote for the Republican just to annoy the Dems!!!

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AZ Granny November 4, 2012 at 6:54 pm

We’re getting bombarded with calls that show out of state numbers on caller ID. We’ve been called by all the politicians, even Pat Boone! LOL

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MarjoJimbo November 4, 2012 at 4:56 pm

Same here, Jack. We lie, too.

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Star November 4, 2012 at 5:13 pm

I guess I am lucky–I didn’t have to limp in over and over for the phone. They gave up on AZ, I guess–maybe it sank in that suing states did not endear you. Probably not, tho–they prob polled–oops, not loving us.

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Numeros November 4, 2012 at 1:23 pm

Keith Koffler,

Rasmussen was not the most accurate pollster in 2008 and only a few polls overestimated Obama’s strength.

You link to the outdated, invalid Fordham “Initial Report.” This preliminary report was compiled in the hours following the 2008 election, long before all ballots had been counted.

Calculations in this Initial Report were done using an ESTIMATE of a 6.15 Obama winning margin. However, when all the votes were tallied, Obama ACTUALLY won by a 7.2 margin.

Fordham later released a complete analysis based on the official popular vote count for 2008. http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/2008%20poll%20accuracy%20panagopoulos.pdf

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Susan November 4, 2012 at 2:23 pm

No wonder I don’t believe any of the polls. Even the statistician for the pollsters fenagles the figures…

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blondie November 4, 2012 at 1:33 pm

Friend in NJ going on a week with no power(she lost power on Sunday,not reported by the media), says nobody is thinking about voting, they are concerned about keeping warm and day to day survival. She had no idea Christie announced email ballots. When I told her,she said,”nobody has internet or power”. Could NJ ever be in play,now? They did vote in a Republican govenor. Tempers are flaring. They are seeing no help from the government. If they do find themselves able to vote,could they turn.
BTW,her report is the media is ignoring for the most part how bad it really is,worse than reports. I’m convinced its so Obama’s Big Government doesn’t look so bad.

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AZ Granny November 4, 2012 at 1:50 pm

Thank you, Keith! Your article helps me put things into perspective and I feel finally that I have hope – hope that we’ll oust the worst president in my lifetime.

Regardless of the Obama photo ops, I think the victims of Sandy are doing well to make their plight known. FEMA ran out of water yesterday and won’t have more until Monday. When you’re thirsty, two days is a long time to wait. Help in NY and NJ was turned away because the power crews weren’t union members. Who gave the unions such authority during time of emergencies? Help from the National Guard was turned away because Bloomberg doesn’t like that they carry guns. The Red Cross failed to take blankets and clothing but passed out cookies and hot chocolate instead. Victims are desperate and need help that they are not receiving. Sandy is Obama’s Katrina.

Meanwhile the Benghazi story gets worse. It has been confirmed the SEALS did indeed lock a laser on the target. They waited hours for help to come, but it never did.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/04/what-laser-capability-did-benghazi-team-have/#ixzz2BGQ9tBNw

Ambassador Stevens met with the Turkish Consul General Ali Sait Akin, who left about an hour before the attack took place. Witnesses reported that road blocks were already in place at that time So… my tin foil hat question is how did the Turkish diplomat actually leave the area? He had to have seen the blockades. Obama has said Turkey is a critical ally. Wouldn’t an ally call and warn Stevens?

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 2:11 pm

Pass the tin foil, I’m in! But remember somebody in the admin wants to criminalize conspiracy theories, even if they’re true. I have a good friend who’s Turkish and he tells me the the rumors in Turkey are that The Turkish government and the Obamanites are up to something together that isn’t good for the Turks or the American people. Easy to b elieve!!!

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AZ Granny November 4, 2012 at 2:41 pm

Great, I’ll buy the giant sized box of tin foil at Costco. LOL Your friend’s theory is very interesting. I’ll make it a point to pay more attention to that aspect of the story.

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Susan November 4, 2012 at 2:50 pm

No tin foil hat necessary to see that something is rotten in Washington, D.C. By the way, that somebody who wants to criminalize conspiracy theories is Cass Sunstein, regulatory czar and the husband of Samantha Power. She is one of the authors of the UN Responsibility to Act doctrine that was first implemented in Libya after the so-called “slaughter in Benghazi” by Gadaffi loyalists.

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 7:12 pm

Thanks! I thought it was Cass but all the President’s Reptiles are starting to look alike to me!

And here’s an update on the Turkey rumor. Seems that a large area in eastern Turkey will be made into Kurdistan. Then all the Kurds in Iran, Iraq, Turkey and elsewhere will go there. It will be Jointly administered by Turkey and the USA. (Turks will do ass-kicking, USA will provide $$$$$). Not sure what the advantage of this arrangement is. My speculation is this is supposed to stop the Kurds from causing trouble in their present home countries. I DO know the Turkish PEOPLE will be about as happy about this as I would be if my underwear spontaneously burst into flames.

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 3:09 pm

There’s more layers to the story than an onion. Turkey also sent the mystery man on the video at the consultate to Tunisia. We’ve been told (lied to) that the FBI has been unable to interview him. A call from a couple of GOP guys(Graham and Saxby) who hold the purse strings for foreign support of Turkey, fixed that with a letter and a phone call. BUT. when asked why Diane Feinstein, didn’t pursue this, Saxby told Brian Kilmeade that Diane Feinstein was in the midst of a campaign and was busy. BUSY!!! The very same Feinstein, who has refused to debate her opponent, who just happens to be the Chairman, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and Senate Committee on Appropriations.

Kinda makes me wonder why Saxby is covering Feinstein’s ass There is more than one cover-up going on. The first is the obvious, what happened in Benghazi, was it arms smuggling to Syria? The second is more apparent to me – both sides of the aisle are holding the answers and we won’t be getting any answers until post election [read: results] who’s in/out and if/when pay backs begin for losses in the House or Senate. They all like their cushy jobs. Term limits are our only weapon.

http://www.france24.com/en/20121025-tunisian-man-linked-media

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 6:17 pm

My Ass-Covering theory is this: Politician “A” covers politician “B”‘s ass because sooner or later politician “B” will do something that will require reciprocal Ass-Covering from politician “A”. Call me cynical.

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 7:13 pm

A.J. I’ll call you Brilliant!
You’ve just explained the Rosetta Stone for politicians.

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gracepmc November 4, 2012 at 7:34 pm

DiFi has been a big disappointment. She is trashing her reputation as a serious and responsible FP Senator. I’m no fan, but she has been remarkably absent on Benghazi.

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Marissa November 4, 2012 at 2:27 pm

I work for the government in a large Dem state. One never knows whether the polls are coming from the union or if the info will be sold. No way do I tell pollsters the truth! I’ll never forget how, after the 2008 election, a civil servant in the NYC IRS office was fired for forwarding an “Obama is a Muslim” email. Dems are much more likely to extract revenge than Repubs are. So, the last poll, I gave BO a +10 favorability.

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sportinlife10 November 4, 2012 at 2:30 pm

It’s more difficult to be straightforward about voting for R² when “funnymen” like Maher tell voters that Blacks know who they will be voting for, and will come after them.
Doesn’t mean they’ll vote for the o, just that they won’t be truthful or upfront about it, no yard signs, bumper stickers.
A Jewish friend hung up on me when I said I certainly couldn’t afford to vote for the o.

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Star November 4, 2012 at 2:49 pm

Yup–the friend thing is hard. Many of us have experienced it. My own brother sent me snippy stuff yesterday when I didn’t think our faulous housing “recovery” was anything to praise Obama for. My brother is a millionaire–nuff said? Also he does not have cable, does not take a paper and does not watch TV.

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blondie November 4, 2012 at 2:59 pm

Those are the worst kinds of liberals.

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 3:18 pm

Oh brother, where art thou. ; )

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Star November 4, 2012 at 3:59 pm

It’s irritating–but I try to ignore it. What bothers me more is friends I was not born into with whom I cannot even mention the state of the country or economy, which as you guys know, is a huge part of my life. This insidious president has sucked in so many otherwise OK people.

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Star November 4, 2012 at 4:02 pm

If he gets re-elected, you can bet they will be dancing their brains out–take that! Take that! And when they are done with their lap, these people will go back to the Daily Show, Entertainment Tonight, People, etc, and we will go back to the economic blahs, the chicanery, the lies, the apologies, the bowing, the 1% growth, the high misery index–if not another recession, when things do NOT go in the right direction.”

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sportinlife10 November 4, 2012 at 6:10 pm

We have two friends we can talk to about Romney – no sibs, no other friends – all conversation is necessarily shut down, has been ever since that charlatan was elected. It’s hard to stay unvulgar about both of them.

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 3:52 pm

New campaign video claims “He is following (Allah) God’s Command”! Gag!
I stopped watching when he said “We are our Brother’s Keeper…our Sister’s Keeper”. When was the last time we had a POTUS who had a brother living in a mud hut in Africa….and an aunt and uncle living illegally off the public dole on the East Coast??? Isn’t this enough to throw the bast*rd out???

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/11/03/new-obama-campaign-video-claims-hes-following-gods-command/

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Julie Brueckheimer November 4, 2012 at 4:06 pm

And a brother whose hospital bill was paid by a stranger, a conservative stranger at that.

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 7:28 pm

Just forced myself to watch the whole thing. Now I’m fighting the urge-to-purge. And there at the end I get a chance to donate or sign up at barackobama.com/faith. These people have no shame!!!

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blondie November 4, 2012 at 3:53 pm

Any ground reports today on crowd size? I don’t see any high schools today on Obama’s schedule. Is he down to grammar schools yet? I think voter enthusiam is the key,and so far its been in Romney’s favor. Curious about today.

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 5:26 pm

Remember, K-12 is a key demographic for Obie. Those kids CAN vote, right?

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gracepmc November 4, 2012 at 7:35 pm

If you vote for Obama, anyone can vote.

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 7:54 pm

And just might, whether they know it or not!!

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 4:22 pm

I am curious. We all use servers,Yahoo, AOL, Comcast, etc. There are always lede and “leading” headlines that take us to campaign articles. What I’ve noticed with my server, the articles supporting Obama get more comments, grief, outrage and anger towards Obama than those that favor Romney, which seem to me, to get the die-hard Left. What say you?

Btw…if the “Million Man Muppet March” in Washington yesterday, is any indicator – 200 costumes showed up. 1,000,000 – 200 = me laughing. ; )

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Just2old November 4, 2012 at 4:29 pm

That march was a joke. I pray that Keith’s analysis is correct. I can’t fathom the alternative.

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 4:49 pm

Nor I. Perish the thought, but I was stunned was he was elected 2008.

“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague.” –Marcus Tullius Cicero

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 5:36 pm

O has lost his advantage with women voters and independents too. The enthusiasm of the minority electorate and young people for the current occupant, no, make that OCCUPIER, of the White House is WAY down. If he does win it’ll be because he got ALL the “Dead People” vote. And you know THEY ALL vote democrat and they all vote more than once! Someone in an earlier comment used the word “chicanery”. Very apt and it makes me very afraid. It’s not that conservatives don’t cheat. It’s just that we’re not very good at it and we always get caught.

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JustSaying12 November 4, 2012 at 6:46 pm

Stevie Wonder had a even smaller crowd.

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blondie November 4, 2012 at 4:53 pm

I agree. I read the comment sections and there are alot of people who do not like Obama.I think the comment section in papers are very telling.

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sportinlife10 November 4, 2012 at 6:12 pm

Our papers won’t print our anti-o letters, so the op-ed pages aren’t very useful. GGGRRR.
AND Mah Man thinks the o is history.

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Sadie November 4, 2012 at 7:15 pm

Time for some humor …Caption contest anyone?

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrew

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slconfidential November 4, 2012 at 4:52 pm

When Obama was running for office in 2008, practically everyone I spoke to were going to vote for him. When he won, the mood was electrifying because now we would have hope and change. Presently, it has been very quiet. No one speaking about any candidate, which is odd. I am in IL, and I hope Romney wins, but it will be an uphill fight.

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blondie November 4, 2012 at 6:04 pm
A.J. November 4, 2012 at 6:27 pm

I remember the 2000 election when somebody in Florida just “HAPPENED” to find a big box of ballots all filled out for Al “Carbon Offset” Gore. And my personal favorite during the recounting for that election when an election official actually came right out and said “We have to change the way were counting because we’re not getting enough votes for Gore.” And he was SINCERE! He didn’t see anything WRONG with that line of “reasoning”.

If Romney wins by even a single vote we can rest assured it was really a landslide!!!

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JustSaying12 November 4, 2012 at 6:45 pm

There is no exictment for Obama this time around here. Just driving in the areas where I live in the suburbs. 2008 it was wall to wall Obama yard signs. Now you hardly see any yard signs and honestly, there is more Romney signs if anything. They did a story this morning on the news here about Obama’s election night rally. A lot of people who went in 2008 are not planning on coming in 2012. Most said they are still voting for him but they all said the same thing: A lot of disappointment in them and there exictment for him as dropped significally.

Then again, early voting is down throughout the country. Dems are trying to play it isn’t. I even know of a Democratic operative who privately admitted to me they are planting comments on message boards or stories on Yahoo, CNN, AP, etc about how early voting is so heavy and we had to wait hours to vote etc but the reality it’s down and by a pretty healthy chunk. That is the one thing that all the pollsters agree. Turnout this year will not be like 2008 or even 2004. Turnout might be around 2000′s but the same Democratic also confide to me that it could be even a bit lower then that.

I really do believe this from the bottom of my heart. A lot of people put a lot of hope in Obama that he was going to change the course of this nation and push us past the partisan era. When it didn’t happen, they got turn off and now are going to stay home.

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Girly1 November 4, 2012 at 9:07 pm

Thjey’re too busy killing each other and participating in flash mob sprees. They have taken Dear Leader’s re-distribution agenda into their own hands…

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JustSaying12 November 4, 2012 at 6:38 pm

ABC/WashPost has run three polls the past three days. Each time there was a different result with neither candidate over 50%, each candidate being up on one point once and one showed them tied. Rasmussen has them tied for a few days now and the swing stakes have pretty much all been ties too. Larry Sabato says it’s too close to call. New polls came out today showing that Obama and Romney were nearly tied in PA and MI of all places (not that Romney is going to win there but even Michigan Democrats are admitting, ‘its too close for comfort”). Anyone who says they know exactly what will happen on Tuesday is kidding themselves. I personally sick of all the polls, commericals, stories, etc and above all the know it all pundits who know a lot less about politics then the 99% of people on this blog.

I am still sticking to my prediction that Obama’s wins in a real squeaker, almost a replay of 2004. I will say that Mitt has a bit more going for him right now then I thought. He is staying closer then McCain obviously did in terms of percentages with early voting and the raw data throughout the country is showing early voting is down anywhere between 15-20%. Romney can win like slconfidential said but it’s uphill battle. He needs to have a great day at the polls on Tuesday. Like Rasmussen said, if more white and GOP voters show up at the polls on Tuesday then 2008, Romney should win. If he does worse then McCain on election day, there is absolute no chance he can win. If he equals McCain’s output from 2008, then it’s a coin flip and we can be waiting a couple weeks to find out who won in a couple states. Rasmuseen btw said that he believes the turnout for white/GOP voters will be around the same as McCain in 2008 therefore why all the poles are basically tied and it will be a razor thin victory for either candidate though he wouldn’t be shocked if the GOP tsunami shows up on Tuesday and pushes Romney into the end zone for the win.

And I couldn’t have said it any better slconfidential. I live in IL too and outside of the inner city, their has been a definite silence over both candidates but particularly over Obama, even people who are voting for him don’t sound overly exicted about him. There is honestly more exictment among Romney voters it seems here. Obviously people know Romney can’t win here in Illinois but they want to send a message to President Obama that you better follow the pattern of your Democratic predecessor and be willing to really compromise if you win a 2nd term (not just talk about it and be so partisan that many Washington insiders wonder if he happier being the DNC Chairman) in order to do the will of the American people.

Because people are sick of the partisan games and want to see Washington work together to solve problems (That is why one of the reasons I am rooting for Romney. I think he can be a unifer unlike Obama who is just going to be more partisan being a 2nd term president and no re-election to worry about. He already ruined his legacy of being a unify figured during his first term therefore why try to fix something that is already ruined. Even Walter Isaacson on CNN today admited that history will look more kindly towards Obama in a first term because he had the good vibes from his 2008 “Hope & Change” campaign where he promised to break partisan divide and be the first “Post-Partisan President”. And on a side note, what Edmund Morris had to say on him sum it up best if you really want to look at him from an objective historical standpoint (paraphrasing): “He has been a disappointed ever since the day he won. None of the speeches as president have not even come close to those of candidate Obama and every year he has sounded more and more partisan”. Nobody on the panel could dispute it. I asked that also to my buddy today when we were watching football together and is a HUGE HUGE Obama fan. Even couldn’t dispute it either and said that he honestly been turned off to politics (which I think is one of the many reasons why turnout will be lower this year even though it’s such a close race).

As for Tuesday, I am not going to watch the returns. I know this sounds crazy but I think it’s ridicilous how we need to know the answer immediately (just another problem with our society, we are “I want it now” society) and cannot wait to ALL the polls are closed before we start counting votes. Regardless of who wins, I still have to get up in the morning, help my wife get the kids up, get ready myself, eat breakfast and go to work LOL! Therefore I am boycotting with my wife and I already agreeing it’s a great night to have a family night. For the record, our kids are too young to really understand what is going on and therefore, it’s not a great night be “educational”. Plus too, I don’t want them to learn about how system works from a bunch of overpaid/overcaffeinated/overanalyzing jackass pundit LOL! Besides, one of the day jobs is getting intense. I am an assistant football coach at a high school and after a couple games where he played against teams who were not up to par with our kids (all our opponents though played hard and were well coach), we have a real battle on our hands next weekend for our quarterfinal game. Therefore we will be burning the midnight oil this next week!

End of rant! :)

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 7:29 pm

Sometime it’s necessary to rant. Thanks for sharing. I mean that!!!

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A.J. November 4, 2012 at 7:33 pm

Oh, and good luck next weekend!!! And good luck to all of us this Tuesday!!!!!!

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@TNROCKYMOM November 5, 2012 at 9:41 am

Mainstream media polls showing obama in the lead far more likely to backfire because Americans, who normally not big on voting, are so pissed and angry THEY WILL VOTE AGAINST OBAMA!!!

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Star November 5, 2012 at 10:37 am

I am just going to gut it out, same as the last four yrs.

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Rose November 5, 2012 at 5:41 pm

I am hoping and praying Romney is doing so well that the election will be a landslide for Romeny/Ryan! I wonder what excuse Biden and Obama and Axelrod will have then?

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BARBARA CAVALLO November 6, 2012 at 4:53 am

the polls are full of crap.the pollsters are in the tank for bozo

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Deroam November 7, 2012 at 8:29 am

The polls are full of facts, the pollsters are in the tank for accurately reflecting the electorate.

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thetruth November 7, 2012 at 11:57 am

hmmm I guess this was more paranoid rambling from another hack!!!

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Ron November 8, 2012 at 7:06 pm

Guess you guys were all pretty far off the mark, eh? As is your worldview. On the decline.

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fred November 9, 2012 at 10:30 pm

They’re all fucking wacko, they probably still believe the polls are wrong.

You can’t help congenital idiocy.

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