Old Math: Romney has to win Ohio to be elected president.
New Math: Romney has to win Ohio, or he can be elected by taking Wisconsin and New Hampshire, or by winning in Minnesota.
The news is that those three states – Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Minnesota – all once viewed as likely for Obama, are all now tossups. It’s part of a potentially tectonic shift I wrote about a few days ago that predicts a likely Romney win and possibly a minor landslide.
That’s why Obama is campaigning in New Hampshire today. His campaign gets the new math.
The math has always assumed Romney winning Florida, North Carolina, and probably Virginia as well. Well, North Carolina is long gone for Obama, Florida is probably gone too, and Virginia is probably on the way to Romney. Ohio remains a tossup, though the early voting there is far more favorable to Republicans than it was four years ago, when Obama won the state by 4.6 points.
The latest national tracking polls by Rasmussen and Gallup put Romney up by 50-46 percent and 51-46 percent respectively. Gallup also has Obama’s approval rating evaporating, down from above 50 percent to 46 percent, three below his disapproval rating of 49 percent.