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Obama May be in Big Trouble

by Keith Koffler on October 18, 2012, 3:26 pm

Gov. Mitt Romney has extended his lead in the latest Gallup tracking poll of likely voters to seven points, a sizable number well outside the poll’s margin of error of two points.

He now leads 52-45 percent.

The polling at the swing state level is closer, and the Obama people go on and on about how Romney can’t win without Ohio, but let’s be clear: Romney is not going to win by say four or five points in the popular vote and lose the Electoral College. It’s just not going to happen.

And Gallup really is not new to polling, you see. What they come up with is significant. According to Karl Rove, writing today in the Wall Street Journal, “No other presidential candidate has been at 50 percent or higher at this point in the race in this survey and lost.”

The polling includes the last seven days, so it hasn’t really factored in Tuesday night’s debate.

But as Rove notes in his piece, and as I’ve noted, President Obama really needed to slaughter Romney in the debate to gain much ground. The reason the first debate helped Romney was that it established him as a very credible candidate in the minds of those who didn’t think so already – including Obama himself. And he presented himself as a man brimming with ideas and competency.

So Romney would have had to said, you know, that Poland is still under Soviet domination in order to lose the boost he got from debate #1.

He might still do that, but Romney is not Jerry Ford.

Leave a Comment

{ 21 comments… read them below or add one }

Christopher Taylor October 18, 2012 at 3:30 pm

The polls are statistically worthless this time out, as the Pew Research Center has explained. I expect Obama to get around 46% of the popular vote, but I’m not sure how Romney will play out, other than over 50% and winning.

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Mr. T. October 18, 2012 at 3:47 pm

Would be fitting if Obama ended up at 47%.

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Sadie October 18, 2012 at 3:49 pm

Mr. T – LIKE. A “just dessert” that I’d be happy to serve to Candy and friends.

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William October 18, 2012 at 4:44 pm

Yes.

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OvertheOs October 18, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Lambchop October 18, 2012 at 3:55 pm

Rove has totally underestimated the nation’s mood concerning the Obama administration. While there are some loud voices on the far left, the rest of the country is dealing with wars that were supposed to be ended, homes and retirement funds worth 50% of value, inflation we have been told does not exist, and a 14.7% unemployment rate that is publicized as 7.8%.

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CAR October 18, 2012 at 11:30 pm

I am cautiously optimistic. However, I have several female acquaintances and friends who also are my friends on Facebook. They (1) “Like” Obama or groups such as “Women for Obama” (or some such group); (2) make fun of Mitt Romney for his “jazz hands” when he talks about his 5-point economic plan; (3) are teachers who always comment about how much they work, how there should be more teachers, they all should be paid more, etc.; (4) are people I would’ve thought are pro-life, which BO MOST CERTAINLY IS NOT. I want to scream “Who ARE you people?!” (I know: Get off Facebook!) One reason I like WHD is Keith and readers are smart and make me feel that I am not alone!

Thank God most of my relatives and closest friends are solidly in MR/PR’s corner.

Sorry to report my son (Ohio) already voted for BO this year. My daughter (Colorado) voted for BO last time; she isn’t happy with him but my husband is pretty sure she won’t go Republican. We’ve done our best with these hard-working, success-oriented young adults and hope they’ll come around eventually!

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srdem65 October 18, 2012 at 4:16 pm

At this point in the election campaign, unless MrRomney is discovered to actually be a shape-shifting alien from the planet Destructo, he won’t lose the lead but will only gain as we near November 6.

Then again, so many voters are disgusted with the Obama administration they might be willing to give an ET a chance to set things right.

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WMP October 18, 2012 at 4:21 pm

Interesting comments. I listen to all the pundits and their interpretation of where the election is right now. I believe (hope I am right) that there are volumes of people who are just keeping their mouths shut. You are right Lambchop. When the government tells us that inflation is in check, we have to remember what isn’t included in that figure. I believe I read yesterday that Core CPI does not include food and energy – I just looked it up and that is correct. Non Core CPI includes everything – obviously the government will use whatever figure is most attractive, so I believe they use Core CPI. Everyone who grocery shops knows that food has gone up. What is hidden is that portions are getting smaller – although the price may be similar to what it used to be – you get less bang for the buck. Gasoline – don’t even go there and in California, the month of October has been a disaster. I saw a clip this morning on an interview with the gentleman who asked the Libya question in the debate. When he spoke of Pres. Obama he said he does not want Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Planned Parenthood cut, likes Obamacare and doesn’t want any kind of voucher system; when he talked or Mr. Romney he talked about his business background and how he believes that is something that he believes is a strong point. If you aren’t willing to have anything cut, only increases in taxes – where does this all end up. I realize compromise is going to be part of the negotiation process with a President Romney and Congress – with a President Obama – I simply do not believe things are going to improve and what we are experiencing will become the status quo. Isn’t that sad?

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mo1 October 18, 2012 at 4:55 pm

I agree. Many people are afraid to say they oppose Obama for fear of being lableled a racist. Also, if people have union jobs (public unions, not only private unions), they are afraid to speak up for fear of irritating union leaders. So I hope and pray that Romney supporters/voters will prove to be (dare I use the term) a silent majority.

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Danceswithtruth October 19, 2012 at 12:36 pm

I’m not afraid of being labeled a racist. I exude incredible excitement when asked about my voting plans – in the affirmative for Obama. I hope that I am one who will contribute to his devestating demise. Let them think they have more support than he really does. I know many neighbors, friends and family who are doing the very same thing.

Check mate.

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JustSaying12 October 18, 2012 at 4:32 pm

Romney has to campaign like he is down. Don’t let this fool you for a minute that he is up in gallup. Obama is a politican from Crook County (my backyard gag) and nows how to pull rabbits out of the hat. And next week’s debate is critical for Romney too. Even though Romney is doing really well in a lot of key areas when it comes to the economy, he still slightly down to Obama in foreign policy according to the polls. Romney needs a good night to show that he can be fill the role of commander in chief.

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Girly1 October 18, 2012 at 7:44 pm

After the Axelrod lawsuit against Gallup, I don’t trust them either. I don’t worry about the polls as much as Obama’s ground forces – ACORN, SEIU, Michelle Obama and the buses lined up in front of college campuses to whisk students off to the voting booth. And, of course, abasetee ballots – the illegal alien’s best friend. If Obama wins, it will be a case of massive voter fraud. TeamObama has been working non-stop for 4 years under the radar.

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Girly1 October 18, 2012 at 7:46 pm

That should be ‘absentee’ ballots, not ‘abasetee’ ballots…

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CAR October 18, 2012 at 11:14 pm

I agree. MR/PR must remain careful. One day at a time.

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William October 18, 2012 at 4:43 pm

So, do the left’s threats of riots and violence become even louder now that the numbers appear to be trending away from their guy? It might be a good time to stock up on some more ammo.

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Susan October 18, 2012 at 5:04 pm

We’ve been stocking up for a long time. Practice is also a good idea. The left will never surrender. No telling how far they will go to retain power, but violence is not out of the question.

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Lizzy October 18, 2012 at 4:45 pm

I’m afraid to ‘hope’ that our long nightmare is nearly done. Guess I fear
what might happen if the Obama cabal sees the writing on the wall and it gets
uglier than words. Sorry to be a drag but after reading some of the Tweets
about what would happen if Romney wins scary folks out there.

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csd October 19, 2012 at 10:48 am

A couple more phony job reports and this may get back to a 50/50 race.

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Jsethtx October 19, 2012 at 11:34 am

The Obama supporters Are bragging about how his people are lined up around the block at polling locations that’s exactly the end end early voting. thats the only thing that concerns me, that we may get outdone in early voting by too much to catcNov p on a single day nov 3

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michael kors hamilton May 31, 2013 at 12:24 pm