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Economists: Unemployment Still 7.8 Percent in a Year

by Keith Koffler on October 15, 2012, 9:32 am

A new survey of economists suggests unemployment is likely to remain right where it is over the next year, stalling at the current level of 7.8 percent through the fourth quarter of 2013.

The widely watched National Association for Business Economics Outlook, a survey of 44 professional forecasters, says job growth next year is expected to average 155,000 per month, a modest figure that barely keeps pace with population growth and will not significantly impact unemployment.

The Outlook expects GDP growth to rise a paltry 1.9 percent this year and only 2.4 percent next year, with levels approaching normal – albeit unremarkable – growth of 3 percent only by the end of 2013.

The forecasters expect litte change in the federal deficit, saying it will remain close to the $1 trillion mark at $950 billion in 2013.

The forecast is based on polling done Sept. 14-16, before the September drop in unemployment from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent was announced Oct. 5. Since the economists were looking at long term trends, the forecast provides further evidence that the September decline was a statistical anomaly that does not suggest dramatic gains in employment are on the way.

The Outlook indicates President Obama’s economic policies continue to do little to revive the economy, which normally bursts out of a recession with high growth rates – something that hasn’t happened in the current recovery. The forecast says that things will start to improve, but very slowly.

The White House says the economy is more difficult to fix than after previous recessions because of the unique circumstances surrounding a financial collapse.

{ 5 trackbacks }


regina October 15, 2012 at 9:47 am


pianogirl88 October 15, 2012 at 10:36 am

not so much “awe”…

Sadie October 15, 2012 at 3:31 pm

Schlock and Audacity.

ImNoDhimmi October 15, 2012 at 9:53 am

“The White House says the economy is more difficult to fix than after previous recessions because of the unique circumstances surrounding a financial collapse.”

The unique circumstance? Barry in the White House.

Girly1 October 15, 2012 at 10:27 am


Not Nabob October 15, 2012 at 10:48 am

What I was thinking. Excuses, excuses, and more excuses is the Obama Admins slogan.

Sadie October 15, 2012 at 12:47 pm

I was thinking more of “eunuch” circumstances for all the obvious reasons. ; )

bobdog October 15, 2012 at 3:57 pm

These estimates are probably correct if Obama is reelected.

If Romney is elected with a legislature willing to do something other than bicker themselves to a standstill, it’s a different proposition entirely.

Like, for instance: Immediate approval of the Keystone Pipeline, oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, a reasonable review of the EPA’s suicide pill for the coal industry, an end to the ridiculous giveaway programs to every cockamamie alternative energy project that lobbyists can dream up, a long overdue review of our tax code and tax rates, serious reductions in federal spending (specifically NOT “reductions in the rate of increase”), fair treatment of small businesses, and a complete rewrite of Obamacare, a strict review of government statistical reporting, and a complete purge of the Justice and Homeland Security Departments.

I think those 44 professional economists would be shocked at what will happen to our economy.

blondie October 15, 2012 at 10:02 am

Except is it really at 7.8%? What about the missing state, California?

jaline October 15, 2012 at 12:25 pm

SHHHHHHH…You’re not supposed to mention that!

carld October 15, 2012 at 3:20 pm

Maybe California will secede.

Dave Tancredo October 15, 2012 at 3:25 pm

and take New York with it. We can only hope.

roger October 15, 2012 at 4:25 pm

It’s really near 20%.

srdem65 October 15, 2012 at 10:29 am

I thought this was satire at first, maybe it really is meant to be funny. “44 professional forecasters” say things will stay the same or get worse, but might get better. That’s what the carnival psychics tell the gullible who ask about their personal future.

My predictions; if MrObama is reelected, fear and despair will continue to rule the mood of the country as Obamacare reveals it’s ugliness, the national debt will continue to grow, and the business community will be forced to retreat even further due to the lack of optimism of the consumers.

If MrRomney is elected, the black cloud of Obamacare will be lifted, the business community will start to relax, and the citizenry will be elated that a seasoned professional is at the helm of our country.

Girly1 October 15, 2012 at 10:46 am

For what it’s worth, one of the biggest Romney haters on the planet appears to be jumping ship: :

“He’s one of the least principled politicians I’ve met. But Mit Romney might just save America”::Piers Morgan

Sadie October 15, 2012 at 3:34 pm

Girly, I hope Morgan drowns while jumping ship.

Ernest Rankin October 15, 2012 at 3:56 pm

UNINSTALLING OBAMA….. █████████████▒▒▒▒▒▒ 95% complete

DeniseVB October 15, 2012 at 10:53 am

My thoughts exactly, the private sector is waiting for a more business friendly President. However, Romney’s going to trim the federal government which may mean job losses there, but good people will find jobs in an expanding economy.

I’ve already seen CEO’s warn their employees if Obama’s re-elected, many of you will lose your jobs. Darden’s already trimming, and this is the company that’s BFF with MichelleO and her healthy eating campaign. I swear that meant an Obamacare waiver ?

heatherfeather October 15, 2012 at 2:22 pm

If Obama is re-elected, I’m more concerned about clashes between his henchmen and people who refuse to comply.

It won’t just be fear and despair, it will be rage and malice.

Dave Tancredo October 15, 2012 at 3:27 pm

My prediction, WHEN Oblamer loses, the cities will erupt with violence.

Sadie October 15, 2012 at 6:31 pm

Chicago won’t be able to tell the difference.

Susan October 15, 2012 at 11:00 am

Meh…never heard of NABE. I’m in the don’t trust until verified mode with all these surveys and studies cooked up by the intelligentia.

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.” ~ Mark Twain

williamhofmeister October 15, 2012 at 2:10 pm

Statistics don’t lie, statisticians do.

ChuckinOC October 15, 2012 at 2:56 pm

Your wish is my command.
This link takes you to the National Association of Business Economics “About” webpage, which states in part, “NABE is the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. Since 1959, NABE has attracted the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia to its membership with highly-regarded conferences, educational and career development offerings, industry surveys, and its unrivaled networking opportunities. ”

You’ll notice that on that page there is a link called “Hall of Fame”. Click it and you’ll see a listing of the members of the Board of Directors that reads like a who’s who in American business and finance for the past half century.

NABE is not a political organization masquerading as an economic think tank. It is, rather, the sort of organization businessmen large and small use to structure their businesses for the future. As such, it really doesn’t matter whether they are right or wrong; they’re predictions are more or less self-fulfilling, given its “unrivaled networking opportunities” among “the most prominent figures in economics, business, and academia” unless or until the conditions upon which their studies are based change significantly. An Obama defeat in November would, I think, qualify as such a change.

Robin H October 15, 2012 at 11:04 am

Has the Obama team ever told us exactly what makes this recession so much different than any of the others we’ve had? All I’ve ever heard are vaguely worded phrases about cliffs and the worst recession since the depression.

Sadie October 15, 2012 at 3:36 pm

Obama has yet to release his transcripts and passports.

TimG October 15, 2012 at 11:28 am

Every bubble swells for a reason, and ultimately bursts when the growth is unsustainable for a number of reasons. This administration does not appear ready to recognize the true cause, nor act to revive the economy. Instead we get “blame the rich wall st guys”, more regulation and viola no recovery. If this recession were truly unique we would expect our elected officials to propose and implement a unique response to remedy the problem.

Just2old October 15, 2012 at 11:35 am

A. This administration has no economic plan. How many trade agreements has obama negotiated and signed = zero
B. As many have stated above; the uncertainty of the future tax burdens on all of us and particularly small business has all of us afraid to do anything.

If obama is reelected, the slide will continue and we may see another recession.

Dave Tancredo October 15, 2012 at 3:29 pm

If Obamao is re-elected we can say good-bye to the country and any hope of restoring it.

If he isn’t re-elected I only fear what he will do with executive orders.

He never have been let in the front door. Thanks to the media for not vetting this America hating imbecile.

ChuckinOC October 15, 2012 at 4:16 pm

They did, TimG. Never before has any president in history implemented policy, and then blamed their predecessor for the failure of those policies, or tried to distract from those failures by claiming they are the same as their predecessor’s predecessor!

Obama’s campaign arguments are fast approaching hilarious. He argues “We tried that and it didn’t work”, referring to the Bush years. He could just as well argue “We tried that and it didn’t work” for the the first four years of the Clinton era as well…you know, the part of his presidency that really did resemble his so far.

When did Americans get so stupid when it comes to economics? How did we ever come to believe that carrying water in a leaky bucket was better than carrying it in a bucket with no holes in it? When did we come to think of “social justice” as “everybody gets what they need whether they work for it or not” and reject the historical definition, “everybody gets what they work for whether they need it or not”,coupled with “Love your neighbor as yourself”?

As de Tocqueville once observed that when the citizens discover they can vote themselves funds from the national treasury, democratic republics collapse. When that happens the citizenry are less inclined to work hard, and the national tax rates become more and more progressive, and these two factors work together to reduce national economic growth. It becomes a national death spiral driven by the darker side of human nature. There was once a time in this country when Congress would not pass, nor a President sign into law, nor a Supreme Court uphold any law that transferred Treasury funds to any individual citizen, regardless of their status in society or personal need. Until we return this country to that state Obamaesque problems will continue to plague us.

Failed Obamessiah October 15, 2012 at 12:13 pm

Shame on you, voters.

Don’t you know that you’re much better off than four years ago?

And that Obama has kept every promise he ever made?

And that four years ago you needed hope and change, but now you need to embrace hoax and chains?

Davos October 15, 2012 at 12:26 pm

Nothing will get fixed like this. The first step to resolving a problem is admitting that you have one. Unemployment is 23.8%, during the Great Depression it was 25% and they counted government workers as unemployed then. These effing economist are idiots.

Dave Tancredo October 15, 2012 at 3:01 pm

Yep, all ivy league educational elites…they’ve infested the country with progressive rantings. The last non-ivy league White House occupant? Ronald Reagan.

Davos October 15, 2012 at 3:20 pm

Yup! But when Ronnie faded they put the man from Merrill Lynch in charge – Donald Regan. Check out the video of him telling Ronnie to speed it up on this page

Dave Tancredo October 15, 2012 at 3:34 pm

Nice article. From that article:
In a very anti-capitalistic move the government decided that stupidity and criminal activity should be rewarded. I’d say they took our money, but it is worse, we didn’t have that much money. So they borrowed the money in our name. The loan has a variable rate. They borrowed so much money that our kids cosigned the loan. In fact, our kid’s future kid’s signed on the dotted line

This is PRECISELY why we need to get Obummer out of the white house. He has not pursued 1 arrest or conviction in the crimes committed against the country, further he’s employed the very masterminds of the chicanery…from Bernanke, to Geithner…Immelt, Jamie Diamon and Buffet in his pocket all because they’re getting kickbacks for supporting this muppet. WHY ANYONE WOULD VOTE FOR HIM AGAIN….oy vey

ChuckinOC October 15, 2012 at 4:50 pm

“These effing economist (sic) are idiots.”


“(e)ffing…idiots” compared to whom, Davos?

I understand your frustration, but let’s not throw the baby out with the bath water, ala the French Revolution. When we again lock the doors of the national Treasury to the will of the mob, the curse of de Tocqueville will be lifted from our necks, and progress, prosperity, and security will automatically return. All we need is one constitutional amendment that makes explicit the common sense of those who wrote it and ratified it; i.e., that no citizen may receive funds from the national treasury regardless of what the transfer is called, and any current program designed for this purpose must be “sunsetted” over time, along with any tax revenues collected for its funding. No more of this some citizens dip into the Treasury at the expense of others lunacy.

Until we develop the national courage it takes to be free as a people, including the courage it takes to trust one another that we will take care of each other without any government involvement, we will never have the country we say we want. The question we face is do we want to be a sovereign people, or do we want a sovereign government? If the latter, then Obama is our guy, and if not, then Romney is the best available first step in that direction. He’s a LONG way from where we need to end up, but he’s a beginning to a very long and arduous trip back to the future.

Davos October 15, 2012 at 5:27 pm

You have to be kidding me. You can not fix a problem until you admit you have one. Unemployment and suicide rates, family homelessness, EBT breadlines are ALL at depression levels and 99% of the folks on this board couldn’t tell you the actual 23.8% unemployment rate.

That is an effing pathetic situation. We don’t need a revolution, we need leaders and educated citizens, the media lies to them and keeps them illiterate.

Star October 15, 2012 at 12:45 pm

Ah, yes, the unicorn number of 7.8%. Gotta love it.

IDontbelieveit October 15, 2012 at 12:46 pm

Love your sources;
A new Poll.
A new survey of economists
professional forecasters (what the hell kind of job it this? Noone reads the future? should be called Bullshitcasters)

Unemployment was 8.3 then magically dropped to 7.8 after Obummer lost the debate. Everyone knows those numbers were fudged. The dollar is getting weaker with QE3 and you say the UE rate is going to be the same after the new president implements his solutions? You mean Barry’s problem of spending all his time on the Golf course or spending 1.5 BILLION dollars of Taxpayer monies on his family or shoving his policies down our throats bypassing our representatives or sending our taxpayer money in the form of stimulous to bail out Europe isn’t doing much to help bail us out?
I think your Poll is skewed to say the least.

DevotedDad October 15, 2012 at 1:05 pm

Does this include ALL the States?

Maybe Obama and his buddies should leave out 10-15 states…

Rememberwhen October 15, 2012 at 1:10 pm

It is instructive to see how prominent Democratic politicians responded to economy during the Bush administration. In October 2003 Nancy Pelosi slammed President Bush and the Republicans for a “jobless recovery.” That month 203,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate was six percent. In August there were 96,000 jobs created and over 300,000 people stopped looking for full-time work.

As a senator, President Obama also heavily criticized President Bush’s alleged weak job creation figures. Five months after Nancy Pelosi criticized President Bush Senator Obama attacked him for a “jobless recovery” as well. That month’s job figures? A third of a million new jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent. Where is the media on this hypocrisy? The media continues to stay unusually quiet about the state of the economy and President Obama’s “Recovery Summer” tour which occurred two years ago.

Dave Tancredo October 15, 2012 at 2:59 pm

The media want Barry to win again. They’re not going to say anything negative about him. The sooner you understand that the MSM (including fox) is in the bag for Obama, the sooner you’ll realize there is no hope in the MSM doing anything to stop the shenanigans.

Susan October 15, 2012 at 3:25 pm

Fox News Channel is about the closest to fair and balanced there is. Their hard news reporters (i.e. Bret Baier, Catherine Herridge, Ed Henry, James Rosen) have been doing an excellent job staying on top of the 9/11 Benghazi terrorist attack.

ChuckinOC October 15, 2012 at 4:54 pm

Well said! Has the added virtue of being accurate.

Sadie October 15, 2012 at 1:10 pm

GDP – Gross Depression Persists.

My secondary insurance jumped 10% this year and last year it was a 25% increase. Word is that I’ll get somewhere between a 1.5 – 1.7% increase in Social Security. Last October gas was $3.40/gallon and today it’s $3.80.

The pencil-pushing e(con)omists can eat lead and drop dead. They are clueless or worse. Where the hell where they when banks were handing out “no doc” loans? Did they run screaming to capital hill to warn them/us. Did anyone hear a peep out of them? The forecasters are about as good as my local weatherman, who puts his finger out of the window and tells me it’s gonna rain today, when I can clearly see it’s already pouring.

cathy October 15, 2012 at 1:24 pm

Why is the press refusing to correct the jobs report? As a resident of California I am furious that our unemployment numbers are not included. 7.8% is not accurate.Demand accuracy in reporting.

Gary October 15, 2012 at 1:37 pm

We all could have told you that Nobamas policies are failing.

juandos October 15, 2012 at 1:50 pm

The problem with this posting isn’t due to the work of Mr. Koffler but the fact that economists are basically lying out their collective @$$e$ with this 7.8% number…

The real world number is this: U6 number has been plus 12% since November of ’08…

Davos October 15, 2012 at 2:15 pm

12%. Jesus, you are as effing clueless as the moron economists argueing between 8.x% and 7.y%.

Watch Chris Martenson’s Crash Course chapter on ‘Fuzzy Numbers’ and get a clue. Subscribe to Shadow Statistics and wake the eff up. Unemployment is 23.8%.

Sadie October 15, 2012 at 2:47 pm

More real numbers….

At the beginning of the Obama administration, 12.7 percent of black adults seeking work were unemployed. Black unemployment is now 14.1 percent. Black teenage unemployment at the beginning of the Obama administration was 35.2 percent. Black teenage unemployment is now 37.9 percent.

Hispanic unemployment is 10.3%, based on last month’s Bureau of Labor Statistics economic report.
Hispanic youth unemployment is an astounding 46.5%.

jnsesq October 15, 2012 at 1:51 pm

Elect Romney and I’ll take that bet!

Red Hot Rash October 15, 2012 at 1:59 pm

obama will go down in hostory as an EPIC failure

Star October 15, 2012 at 2:12 pm

A weird outlying (heh) chapter in American politics–that’s my guess and hope.

John Smith October 15, 2012 at 2:38 pm

No it won’t. It will be about 4%. They just won’t count California, New York, Illinois, Nevada and Florida.

Dave Tancredo October 15, 2012 at 2:56 pm

I’ll give you a hint, unemployment isn’t at 7.8% now, never mind next year. If you believe unemployment is 7.8% right now, I’ve got a marxist kenyan for you to vote for president.

CA56 October 15, 2012 at 3:01 pm

Will someone please add CA into the current unemployment number

Brant October 15, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Davos October 15, 2012 at 3:34 pm

Finally, we have a winner. Someone on this page actually knows his numbers!!!

Vendicar Decarian October 15, 2012 at 4:37 pm

What? The unemployment rate is really 22% to 24%.

Well that is what you pathetic suckers get for voting a low grade MORON like George W,. Bush into the white house.


r vincent October 15, 2012 at 3:03 pm

Stop lying for obama its more like 14.8 % unemployed
obama is a total failure and we the people know it
so pushing these fake numbers do no good

Dave Tancredo October 15, 2012 at 3:24 pm

Unless you’re a black or hispanic youth, then it’s about 48%.


Annie October 15, 2012 at 3:16 pm

I beg to differ but 7.8 is incorrect, they did not include numbers from CA in that report, because the president wanted an “October” surprise. The real number is something like 11%. Get your facts straight. Oh wait, you are in the tank for Obama.

cathy October 15, 2012 at 3:36 pm

The most current info I can find shows California unemployment rate at 10.4% Most counties are over 10%. One county is is at 29.9%

r October 15, 2012 at 4:23 pm


Vendicar Decarian October 15, 2012 at 4:31 pm

I remember a time just 4 years ago when Republicans where insisting that Gunderment couldn’t create dem jobs.

Now they are fawning over a job killing offshorere in Mitt Romney who promises to create jobs in America.

What a pack of pathetic losers.

The only good Republican is a dead Republican.

Susan October 15, 2012 at 4:47 pm

So, it’s come to that…death threats from a runty little mama’s boys who thinks the rest of us owes him something. Go do something with your life, rather than sponging off your long-suffering parents.

Sadie October 15, 2012 at 6:38 pm

Susan, there it is the actual voice of a democrap. Sounds like a genuine “redneck” to me (of the Stalin type). That’s what they truly believe a democracy should be – their way or dead.

jose jimenez October 15, 2012 at 4:48 pm

that the ‘forecast’ suggests any improvement at all under obama is completely absurd. if he is re-erected things can and will only get worse. i’m keen to know what a forecast under romney/ryan and a republican congress would indicate.

fantasywriter October 15, 2012 at 5:00 pm

You’re right, the Oct. 5th announcement of a drop in unemployment from 8.1% to 7.8% was an anomaly since 30,000 + claims were not counted in. As it turns out the 30,000+ came from a “large state” and weren’t processed in time and as a result not submitted. Had those claims been added in the unemployment rate would have been closer to 8.2 -8.3%.

Mike October 15, 2012 at 5:29 pm

The media loves to ignore the fact that illegal immigrants have GAINED 800,000 jobs during Obama’s presidency.

Valerius Poplicola October 15, 2012 at 7:30 pm

The only thing bursting because of Obama’s policies are hopes and dreams.
I am doing everything I can to make sure Obama is not reelected and I invite you all to join me. Please sign up with the OUST OBAMA COALITION. We only have a few weeks left to make a difference.

GoneToFat October 16, 2012 at 6:29 am

So those millions unemployed now only have to survive another year. Those of us working part time don’t matter

ChuckinOC October 16, 2012 at 1:57 pm

The prediction is only as good as its assumptions, which include (but are not limited to) that the policies in effect now, and those slated to go into effect now in 2013 (including what is called the “fiscal cliff” [see for explanation of the term) we’re all about to tumble over Jan. 1, 2013), will not change over the next year. If Romney is elected I firmly believe you can throw the assumptions upon which this study was done out the window. If Romney knows what he’s talking about (and there’s no good reason to suppose otherwise, despite all the scare tactics coming from the Obama campaign…after all you have to know SOMETHING about the way the private sector works to make over $250 million in it!) he plans to implement policies, reform regulatory agencies and the tax code so that the economy will produce, on average, 250 thousand new jobs a month, or 12 million in his first term.

If he can do that, you won’t be working part time this time next year unless you want to.

Business predictions October 17, 2012 at 5:40 am

I agree that things will start to improve, but very slowly.

wolfgang Halbig October 29, 2012 at 1:26 pm

Why does anybody today want to have nine children or more when they cannot afford even one child. The fathers refuse to pay child support, they don’t live at the home with his children.

Why does anybody today want to have 12 or more children when the father is not even around to teach them about all the opportunities that await them through education and not selling drugs.


‘They’re standing on the corner and they can’t speak English.

I can’t even talk the way these people talk:

Why you ain’t,
Where you is,
What he drive,
Where he stay,
Where he work,
Who you be…

And I blamed the kid until I heard the mother talk.

And then I heard the father talk.

Everybody knows it’s important to speak English except these knuckleheads. You can’t be a doctor with that kind of crap coming out of your mouth.
In fact you will never get any kind of job making a decent living.

People marched and were hit in the face with rocks to get an Education, and now we’ve got these knuckleheads walking around.

The lower economic people are not holding up their end in this deal.

These people are not parenting. They are buying things for kids.

$500 sneakers for what?

And they won’t spend $200 for Hooked on Phonics.

I am talking about these people who cry when their son is standing there in an orange suit.

Where were you when he was 2?

Where were you when he was 12?

Where were you when he was 18 and how come you didn’t know that he had a pistol?

And where is the father? Or who is his father?

People putting their clothes on backward:
Isn’t that a sign of something gone wrong?

People with their hats on backward, pants down around the crack, isn’t that a sign of something?

Isn’t it a sign of something when she has her dress all the way up and got all type of needles [piercing] going through her body?

What part of Africa did this come from?

We are not Africans. Those people are not Africans; they don’t know a thing about Africa…..

I say this all of the time. It would be like white people saying they are European-American. That is totally stupid.

I was born here, and so were my parents and grand parents and, very likely my great grandparents. I don’t have any connection to Africa, no more than white Americans have to Germany , Scotland , England , Ireland , or the Netherlands. The same applies to 99 percent of all the black Americans as regards to Africa. So stop, already!

With names like Shaniqua, Taliqua,… Mohammed, and all of that crap……..
And all of them are in jail.

Brown or black versus the Board of Education is no longer the white person’s problem.

We have got to take the neighborhood back.

People used to be ashamed. Today a woman has eight children with eight different ‘husbands’ — or men or whatever you call them now.

We have millionaire football players who cannot read.

We have million-dollar basketball players who can’t write two paragraphs. We, as black folks have to do a better job.

Someone working at Wal-Mart with seven kids, you are hurting us.

We have to start holding each other to a higher standard..

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