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Romney Down by Only Three in Michigan

by Keith Koffler on October 9, 2012, 10:44 am

A newly released poll finds Gov. Mitt Romney may have significantly closed the gap with President Obama in Michigan, trailing the president by only three points in a state Democrats have figured to be a virtual lock for the president.

It is critically important for Obama to hold Michigan, because losing it could diminish the significance of possibly taking Ohio, where Obama has practically been living for the past six months. Michigan has 16 electoral votes, just two fewer than Ohio. Obama advisers believe Obama cannot lose the election if he wins Ohio – but that’s no longer true if he loses Michigan.

According to the Epic-MRA poll of 600 likely voters, which was conducted for the Detroit Free Press in the three days following the Oct. 3 debate, Obama leads Romney by 48-45 percent, within poll’s four-point margin of error. Seven percent say they are undecided. Undecided voters often break for the challenger.

The poll is a striking reversal from last month, when Obama’s lead was 10 points, 47-37 percent.

Only 40 percent in the current poll said the nation is headed in the right direction, compared to 53 percent who say it’s on the wrong track.

What’s more, 56 percent of those polled give Obama a negative grade, rating his performance in office as either “just fair” or “poor.” Only 43 percent said Obama had done a “pretty good” or “excellent” job,” with just eleven percent offering the “excellent” assessment.

Fifty one percent of Michigan voters give Obama a favorable rating compared to 46 percent who rate him unfavorably. Romney has a 45 percent favorable rating, with 49 percent viewing him unfavorably.


William October 9, 2012 at 10:52 am

While promising, it is sad to see that 48% of the people in Michigan look at the free-fall and think, “Wow! Isn’t this awesome!”

JustSaying12 October 9, 2012 at 10:56 am

I have a tough time believing that Romney can pull of a win in Michigan. Too much power by the unions. But at the same time, I think it will be much more competitive then most “experts” are saying it will be. Then again, I don’t think Romney is making a “monster comeback” after the debate. I think the momentum is on his side after his stellar debate performance (and he is doing a nice job doubling down with speeches like yesterday and continuing to open up on the campaign) but I never felt like he was ever that much down. Rasmussen (who I put the most trust in) as had the election at almost a draw for the past several months with Obama taking a small lead after the DNC and the 47% comment fallout. But really that bounce was really cost by another underlining factor most political “experts” weren’t addressing: The vast majority of people weren’t paying attention to last Wednesday.

Now, with a month to go they are paying attention and Romney has a golden opportunity to put out a compelling argument on why he should be given a chance to lead this country especially with the Obama campaign resorting to personal attacks and making Big Bird an issue to go along with Obama IMO such in shock on how poorly things are going; that he no longer really wants the job and now is running on fear that will be deemed to be a failure in history despite all the hype that came with him to go along with the fact he is denial that there is a real possiblity he could lose to a Mormon from Mass.

elm October 9, 2012 at 10:56 am

It must be the free cell phones, cause police are now handing out fliers which warn “enter at your own risk” to those who dare go into Detroit. Suppose there will be similar signs posted at the voting polls. West Michigan is not so much in the tank for the o. Too many Godfearing believers here.

Shofar October 9, 2012 at 12:18 pm

It’s like the difference between NYC and the rest of the state, and PA’s rural areas vs. the major metro areas.

The media focuses on the cities, but not on the real world.

pianogirl88 October 9, 2012 at 11:07 am

I have many good friends who live in MI. They and all of their friends are rock solid conservatives. If this polling was done in the SE part of the State, and in the ivy tower enclaves of Ann Arbor and Lansing, then the high percentage for BO & Joe is not a surprise. If the next 3 debates go well, many undecideds will shift to the R/R ticket. With four weeks left in the election process, the numbers are certainly going in the right direction

Guillermo Grande October 9, 2012 at 11:55 am

Yup… Used to live in AA Mi. Liberal enclave is an understatement. In 2004 a farmer put up Bush billboard. By the next morning it had been vandalized. Next morning worse. Third morning someone drove over it. So much for the college town diversity of ideas. Detroit is a war zone in a cess pool. Having lived in a third world country under martial law I can assure you I NEVER went to Detroit without an escort. Not a place to be without knowing where you are at all times. I’ll save the burning SUV on the detroit freeway at midnight for another day.

If Romney is close in Mi is a testimony to how much the union power has waned (self inflicted BTW) and the significant decline of Detriot itself. The total population there is a fraction of what it was in the days of “Motown”. It is possible the remaining pop will not be enough to pull the hinterlands down.

rulierose October 9, 2012 at 10:13 pm

hey now! I’ve lived in the People’s Republic of Ann Arbor for most of my life, and I’ve never heard of any widespread problem with liberal drive-by Bush-sign-violating. but it definitely is a liberal sort of place.

however, take heart: in the last 2 days I’ve seen 3 Romney bumper stickers, and for the U-M campus area, that’s pretty good!

Janice/Granny Jan October 9, 2012 at 11:07 am

Jim Geraghty used Obama’s schedule that you posted on whether Obama’s taking the polls seriously.

Star October 9, 2012 at 12:18 pm

If anyone’s interested, I had a letter in the WSJ today on the dopey War on Women.

Just2old October 9, 2012 at 1:03 pm

Nice letter Star. You pointed out the obvious….but most people these days miss the obvious.

Guillermo Grande October 9, 2012 at 1:26 pm

Nice work Star. Too many men are only after one thing…ego.

(Funny part, spotted your signature and started reading. Read some more, reread more, trying to figure out what in the world you were thinking with the tone of the note. Thankfully, that article from the angry lady in Washington ended and yours started… whew.)

Jeff October 9, 2012 at 4:33 pm

As far as percentage of the state, most of us will vote for Romney, its Detroit and Dearbornistan that screw us every time..We need to get ride of stabenow as well.. Granholm’s eviction woke alot of people up here, and the debate finished him off.. were a red state minus the 2 shit-holes I mentioned in the 1st line.Detroit is controlled by the teamsters and .as far as Dearborn, I figure they will want their own state here in a year or 2..
Hey were tryin…

Paul October 9, 2012 at 4:55 pm

We in michigan want Romney/Ryan yard signs everywhere but when we go to get them at our local RNC they tell us we can only get 1 per person because the Romney campaign won’t put the money in yard signs, unbelievable

rulierose October 9, 2012 at 10:17 pm

that’s BS that they “wont put the money” into yard signs. signs are plentiful here. in Ann Arbor.

I don’t know where you live, Paul, but I can get you as many Romney/Ryan yard signs as you want. I’m serious; you tell me where to bring them and I’ll bring them!

this offer good in Washtenaw, Wayne, Oakland, Genesee, and Jackson counties. (did I miss anybody?)