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Intrade Gives Romney a One in Four Chance

Gamblers – I’m sorry, participants in the “prediction market” – on the website Intrade have fallen hard for President Obama in recent days, amping up his odds of winning to 3:1 over Gov. Mitt Romney.

In just the last three weeks, “traders” have increased the chances of an Obama win from about 58 percent to just above 75 percent.

The change reflects an obvious disappointment among those willing to put their money where their mouth is with Romney’s candidacy, which has suffered from criticism that Romney has failed to provide an attractive – and policy-specific – alternative to Obama, as well as from a video in which Romney said half the country is selfishly addicted to government handouts.

In Britain, where you can bet on whether the Martians will land in a flying saucer or a square plate, the betting is running 4:1 against Romney.

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26 Responses to Intrade Gives Romney a One in Four Chance

  1. Keith – Interesting stuff, these betting sites and the associated gaming models… They do represent voter sentiment, logic, bias, and hopes all in one basket…

    To borrow a quote from Napoleon, “a leader is a dealer in hope”. To that end, both presidential candidates are doing what they can to spirit or marshall voter hopes and aspirations. It is all fuzzy and complex stuff, but ya gotta love the process even if the outcome may differ from your politics…

    • The odds makers also had the Patriots twice beating the Giants in the Super Bowl.

      But Keith, it’s not about Obama beating Romney and Romney loses.

      It’s about us, and the American people losing. It’s about us losing our freedoms by Presidential fiat. It’s about America being leads by someone who doesn’t see how exceptional this nation is, and is willing to lead this nation as if we were Bulgaria, or Peru or the Netherlands.

    • RT

      No.They do not represent voter sentiment, logic, bias or anything else except what GAMBLERS think about the election.

      Intrade participants are essentially people with a serious impulse control disorder. While there is certainly some element of biological vulnerabilities, there are also ways of thinking and social reinforcements at play here. These are people who are novelty seekers and people who have faith in a “something for nothing” philosophy. In other words, they are NOT conservatives.

      Of course, you will find examples of conservatives who develop gambling problems and plenty of conservatives participate in low level gaming as a social interaction but we are talking a hundred bucks on the Super Bowl (when their team is in it) or some amount they can afford to lose on a trip to Vegas (between Celine Dion and Cirque de Soleil). But with the people who think Intrade is fun (or worse, a good investment), you are dealing with a personality that finds conservative ideas to be incomprehensible and (like Pauline Kael) find them personally to be “outside their ken.”

      I suspect you are about to take a bath personally on this election.

  2. They may be taking into account that the Obama campaign will make use of the standard “Dear Leader” toolbox to manipulate the election to suit them. You know, supress the groups unlikely to vote for him (The military, for example, they’re trying really hard to do that in Ohio), promote groups that will vote for you (“undocumented workers”), make it impossible to monitor for fraud (No Voter IDs!), bribe and threaten as needed, and cheat when required. Per Saul Alinsky, in no case do you allow it to be fair and honest.

    P.J. O’Rourke relates a story in “Holidays in Hell” where he was covering the “election” of Boris Yeltsin. He questioned a “man in the street” regarding this. It went along these lines;
    PJ – “Who do you think will be the next President?”
    Man – “Yeltsin.”
    PJ – “How much to you think he’ll win the election by?”
    Man – “I did not say he would win. I said he would be the next President.”

    I did not understand how this Russian peasant felt at the time, but I’m starting to. I fear we may all understand him all too well after November.

    • @Girly1 – I admire you. If nothing else, you state your beliefs in simple, easy to understand words… Us versus them. Next, gross stereotypes placed / tucked into neat boxes, fear & hate, good versus evil, etc. You hang it right out there. Touche…

      Historically, there is a reason that dissenters and intellectuals are the first to get shot… Is it possible we are in the same group? Wow… Ya can go back further than a 2008 parody to cite the complexities of the human condition – and the lot of the masses…

        • My Dearest Star – if my observations regarding the importance of historical context and blight of humanity grow tiresome, it is not for lack of effort on my part. So, that leaves you.

          Maybe you are tired cuz (a) you are old, (b) cuz you pour out all your energy into hate, (c) my context / level of discourse escape your abilities to engage, making you tired, (d) or you get it, but do not have substantive / meaningful replies and the process to assert yourself academically is tiresome, (e) you get it, but are too lazy to learn, or (f) some unknown ailment that you are not sharing…

          No matter, if the entertainment is shared, I am good. And thanks for using my line about being entertained. I am flattered, well not really, but you get my point. Well, maybe not. But, hey, I gave it a shot…lol…

      • Hi Girly1 – No, not paid by post. If I earn any more, I would have to come off welfare and all of the other socialist handouts I am receiving… You know that. I live off of your hard earned tax dollars… Every penny you pay in taxes goes to me… I earn that much… Actually, it takes 4.9 Republican taxpayers to equip me in the life style to which I have become accustomed. I digress…

        As for the Obama camp… I know they are busy. As far as all of the descriptors that one could employ to describe the mood of our President’s campaign, desperation is not a word I would use to characterize the team. But you did… Surprise!

        What word might you use to describe the Romney camp? Cautiously optimistic? Emboldened? Concerned? Confident? Hmmmmm?

        My take for the Governor? – a borrowed movie line – “did you know bees and dogs can smell fear?”

  3. I don’t buy those stats anymore than the other bogus polls. Romney doesn’t have to prove he would be a better alternative. I think Obama needs to prove he’s worthy of reelection, and he’s not worthy of reelection by any measure. Just think back to some of the highlights of this nightmare of a presidency…
    * He has proven that he can spend more of the public treasury in less than four years than all presidents from Washington to Clinton combined.
    * He has proven that he can issue executive order after executive order, bypassing Congress and the rule of law because, according to his utopian world view, “we can’t wait”.
    * He has proven his foreign policies are just as much a failure as his domestic policies…
    Gunrunning in Mexico without their knowledge or participation.
    Disrupting the world with his “Arab Spring” initiative, which has led to worldwide turmoil, death, and mayhem.
    Last but not least, his message to Vlad via Medvedev…”This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility”.

    This man has been a disastrous president. About time to give someone else a chance to repair the damage. Romney could spit in my face and call me a loser and I’d still vote for him over Obama. Know he’s a good man and would never do that, but that is just how badly he needs to win…so America can start to recover.

  4. Though not as bad as John McCain, Romney has failed utterly in persuading anyone to vote for him. Believing as I do that the Republican Party Machine picked him as their nominee, it seems obvious to me they don’t care whether we have a Republican president or not. That’s the only logical explanation I can come up with.

    They have had four years of the destruction of Obama to prepare for this election and have done nothing but respond to the Democrat’s agenda, as usual.

    This country is dead either way. Neither party cares about the people in the country that are its engine because all of them are set for life. Even if they don’t receive their pensions for doing nothing, they are all prepared to enjoy their own comfort.

    This country is also dead because all of our institutions are filled with corrupt and greedy people, unlike anything in our history. The writing has been on the wall for decades. Agenda 21, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the hard left, middle left, right-left, are bedfellows and have prepared what we are experiencing carefully and purposefully.

    • Don’t let the establishment goobers get you down, Elaine. They all operate in that DC/NY bubble and haven’t a clue what life is like for the great unwashed. This country can be saved, but it takes every one of us to participate. Take a stand, speak up, and get everybody you know to vote. Family, friends, co-workers all need to understand the peril America is facing.

      Our forefathers suffered tremendous loss and hardship to win our freedom and liberty. I’m not ready to throw it all away because Mitt Romney isn’t a cult of personality like president Kardashian. He’s not a rock solid conservative like I wanted, but he is a good man and he loves America. His choice of Paul Ryan for VP told me he is serious about returning to constitutional principles. That’s all I need to know.

      It took us a hundred years to get to this point, and it’s going to take a lot longer than I have on this earth to repair all the damage that has been wrought on this beautiful country. Mitt Romney is a baby step back in the right direction. Stand strong patriot!

  5. Americans can’t legally trade on Intrade with their credit or debit cards. As a result, most of the trades are being made by non-Americans. Not too many people would be willing to do wire transfers which is what Americans would have to do in order to trade. If you look at most European polls they are convinced that Obama will win, and they are most likely behind the Intrade bets. If I were allowed to trade with my credit card I would be betting that Romney will win this election.