Yesterday, I wrote that some Republicans seemed to be getting a little too freaked out about all the media talk that President Obama was now ascendant in the presidential race. I thought it looked like the media taking the latest tidbit of information – a post-convention bounce – and glorifying it into serious information.
Well, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll of likely voters out today puts the race dead even, right back where it was before the conventions, with Obama at 49 percent and Gov. Mitt Romney at 48 percent.
And, exactly as I thought, Obama’s bounce seems to have evaporated once people digested the latest lousy employment figures, which were released Friday. From the Post write up of the poll:
Historically, candidates often get an immediate post-convention boost, with some of the shift dissipating quickly. Obama has a six-point edge among all voters based on interviews Friday, the day after the Democratic convention wrapped up. In interviews Saturday and Sunday, the two were about evenly matched among registered voters.
You’ll note that, since a third of the interviews were done Friday, the day after the convention, Romney may in reality now be tied with Obama or have a lead, though it would be within the margin of error. That is, if the poll were conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday, it would not have included Obama’s ephemeral bounce.
The Post poll puts Obama at only a 48 percent approval rating, with 50 percent disapproving of the job he’s done.
This is still a fairly long race. The conventions just about balanced each other out. But the debates may give someone a clear advantage.
{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }
This is so interesting but good luck getting anyone to report in such a detailed manner as the numbers in this poll relate. The MSM takes one poll number, the one that suits their political bent, and runs with it as the banner headline.
No one ever calls me for a poll. Where do the pollsters get their likely/registered voters? I’d love to give my two cents.
65, I live in Virginia and have been polled 3-4 times a week for the last couple of months. I always give them bogus answers….guess I account for part of the margin of error. (-:}
Lying to a pollster is racist, Just……..LMAO!!!!!
That’s an easy one. yesterday I mentioned that the pollsters seem to be hanging around college campuses as kinda of a joke. In reality, that is very true. Walk along any quad in the morning and you’ll see perky little sorority types asking your opinion on anything from Dolphin-safe tuna to what cell phone plan you use. College campuses have for a long time been used to troll for “opinions” Its naturally gonna be slanted toward the “gimme my money” types.
Think you’re right on the money: the post RNC poll from Rasmussen didn’t get much publicity in the MSM.
It’s all about Ohio, Keith. The Romney camp is worried – their internal polling shows Romney down by as many as 9 points. Someone on Morning Joe this a.m. quoted Richard Nixon as saying: “You campaign for President as if you were running for Governor of Ohio”. Romney can still win without Ohio but he’s going to have to win just about everything else. Unfortunately, Obama has put NV, CO, and FLA into play with his bogus Dreamer amnesty for 2M illegals. The good news is…Obama’s polling with the Jewish vote is the lowest since Jimmy Carter. Hope he can save
FLA!
I don’t think that Gov. Romney is in as much of danger of losing Ohio than you think. Not from what I have read.
The entire polling obsession is idiotic. I agree with 65, never having been polled either, that MSM cherry picks polls to use. Plus, lets not forget Carter was up by what 17 around this time against Reagan? Mondale by 10+ same period. Lets see the debates without GOT YA graphics, etc and then make some conclusions.
My husband printed an article from the Examiner which I haven’t had time to read yet, but it says that if the CNN/ORC poll hadn’t been skewed towards Democrats, Romney would lead by 8.
All this polling business reminds me of the scene from the original Star Wars. When the rebels are attempting to attack the Death Star’s reactor port, Gold Leader and Gold Five are come through the gauntlet and the big guns have stopped.
Gold Leader: It’s no good, I can’t maneuver!
Gold Five: Stay on target.
Gold Leader: We’re too close!
Gold Five: Stay on target!
Someone needs to remind R & R to “Stay on target” with their message. Keep hammering where we are vs. where we need to be, and how the deficit has grown $5+billion in just 3 1/2 years under Obama. Don’t get distracted by the polls, the MSM, the BS that is going to be thrown at them no matter what.
Hammer Obama on his disregard for the Constitution, his disregard for the will of the people, his cronyism with our money going to companies that had not chance in hell of making it, the loss of respect world-wide for the US, the Ft. Hood shooting (due to PC gone amok in the name of diversity), and all the other things too numerous to list here.
Stay on target!
Why can’t Romney pull ahead of this loser?
Romney is listening to the same political consultants that lost the election for McCain in 2008. Can’t believe they still haven’t made an issue of the shenanigans that went on during the Democrat convention.
Romney is ahead, but the media don’t want the race shut down too soon. Peggy Noonan has a good article in the WSJ on the upcoming debates. I also believe the ‘silent majority’ is being silent to avoid being called racist just for criticizing O.
Whatever happens, I am going ahead and voting Romney because I believe in him. Don’t let the left media discourage you from voting.
Maybe because any pollster fears being sued if their numbers don’t reflect what dear leader wants.
My dad, who was a pretty smart guy (he was an engineer, then used the G.I. Bill after WWII to become a dentist) once told me, “Tell me the outcome you want and I’ll find the statistics to prove it.” And these polls are no different. You have to know WHO was asked WHAT. I saw a good example a few years ago. The QUESTION was “Who would you PREFER to see burn in Hell, George Bush or Adolph Hitler?” The ANSWER was overwhelmingly HITLER, but the Headline was “Survey shows people PREFER Hitler to Bush”, leaving out that inconvenient “burn in hell” reference.
I’m hoping for a good debate performance by Romney but I know in the past I’ve watched debates, went to bed thinking one candidate had clearly won, only to wake up the next morning to hear the talking heads tell me the OTHER GUY won! And I won’t be the least surprised if Obama is allowed to use a teleprompter for the debates! Wouldn’t THAT be “FAIR”!
Sorry all, I’m just in a ranting mood this A.M.
First tweets of 9-11-12 from the two opposing candidates.
“On this most somber day, America is united under God in its quest for peace and freedom at home and across the world.—
Mitt Romney (@MittRomney) September 11, 2012″
“The election is in 8 weeks. Sign up to volunteer: OFA.BO/s3tXFz—
Barack Obama (@BarackObama) September 11, 2012″
I know which one of these candidates shows more love and compassion for his fellow Americans and it’s not the current resident.
http://twitchy.com/2012/09/11/romney-remembers-911-on-twitter-as-obama-disgracefully-begs-for-campaign-volunteers/
NBC didn’t even observe the moment of silence this morning. The local affiliate in NYC had to interrupt the program because the Today Show was doing a story with one of the Kardashians.
http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/nbcs-today-skips-911-moment-of-silence-for-kardashian-interview_b145281
I am speechless. Thank you so much for sharing those. I’m a huge fan of Twitchy. They are always spot-on.
Back to the topic at hand, polling, Chris Stirewalt Tweeted a link to an article he wrote about this same WaPo/ABC poll. It’s a good read.
Chris Stirewalt @cstirewalt
Poll Reveals Dangers of Intensity Gap for Obama: http://soc.li/qLPnuBO
He concludes:
“While the blistering character attacks on Romney combined with careful cultivation of various Democratic blocs –immigration activists, same-sex marriage proponents, pro-choice crusaders, government workers – have helped the president to solid support within his own party. And yet these same folks appear to be neither fired up nor ready to go.”
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