Yesterday, I wrote that some Republicans seemed to be getting a little too freaked out about all the media talk that President Obama was now ascendant in the presidential race. I thought it looked like the media taking the latest tidbit of information – a post-convention bounce – and glorifying it into serious information.
Well, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll of likely voters out today puts the race dead even, right back where it was before the conventions, with Obama at 49 percent and Gov. Mitt Romney at 48 percent.
Historically, candidates often get an immediate post-convention boost, with some of the shift dissipating quickly. Obama has a six-point edge among all voters based on interviews Friday, the day after the Democratic convention wrapped up. In interviews Saturday and Sunday, the two were about evenly matched among registered voters.
You’ll note that, since a third of the interviews were done Friday, the day after the convention, Romney may in reality now be tied with Obama or have a lead, though it would be within the margin of error. That is, if the poll were conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday, it would not have included Obama’s ephemeral bounce.
The Post poll puts Obama at only a 48 percent approval rating, with 50 percent disapproving of the job he’s done.
This is still a fairly long race. The conventions just about balanced each other out. But the debates may give someone a clear advantage.