In London, you can bet on anything. And in London, if you want to bet that Obama will win reelection, you have give odds.
From Smart Money:
Do you think you know who’ll win? The U.K. bookies now heavily favor Obama: He’s quoted at 2/5, compared with 15/8 for Romney. Put another way, they currently give Obama a roughly 70% chance of winning, against 35% for Romney. (Those odds have moved sharply towards Obama in recent weeks, following Romney’s missteps, although the polls in the U.S. don’t reflect that.)
Looking for a punt on Romney’s VP pick? The bookies heavily favor Rob Portman (2/1) and Tim Pawlenty (9/4).
The betting on Intrade, which bills itself as “The world’s largest prediction market,” also points to an Obama victory, though not as sharply.
Intrade “shares” on an Obama win are trading at $5.80, which translates to a 58 percent chance of victory. Romney’s chances are rated at 39 percent.
Of course, it’s early, and the notions of gamblers are not necessarily the most reliable means of forecasting the election.
But I don’t rule out their calculations. Money, and the prospect of winning or losing it, does tend to focus the mind.