Karl Rove has penned an interesting piece today on why President Obama’s chances may look worse than the polls suggest. If its true, surely the Obama campaign people know it.
Rove describes a number of statistics that suggest that if Obama and Romney are close in the polls, Romney wins. He finds:
- Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats;
- The small minority of Republicans who backed Obama in 2008 have gotten over the novelty and are likely to return to the fold;
- The majority of independents who supported Obama is likely to erode or turn into a majority for Romney;
- Seniors, who backed John McCain, will go in even bigger numbers for Romney;
- Segments who were wild for Obama, like the Hispanics, young people, and even blacks, are less likely to appear at their polling stations in 2012.
Romney will still have to offer something to inspire people, according to Rove, which is the point I was making below about Obama’s failed opportunity before the NAACP Wednesday.
Still, Romney isn’t home free. To win 270 Electoral College votes, he will have to keep Republicans energized, increase his support among independents, seniors and the middle class, and make inroads among Hispanics and young voters. To do that, he will need to do much more than just criticize Mr. Obama’s many failures.
The closer Nov. 6 gets, the more pressure there will be on the GOP challenger to offer a principled, practical, detailed governing vision.
If Romney’s campaign plays it safe, they may squander the numerous chances he has been given to find pathways to win.