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Rove: It’s Worse for Obama than it Looks

Karl Rove has penned an interesting piece today on why President Obama’s chances may look worse than the polls suggest. If its true, surely the Obama campaign people know it.

Rove describes a number of statistics that suggest that if Obama and Romney are close in the polls, Romney wins. He finds:

  • Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats;
  • The small minority of Republicans who backed Obama in 2008 have gotten over the novelty and are likely to return to the fold;
  • The majority of independents who supported Obama is likely to erode or turn into a majority for Romney;
  • Seniors, who backed John McCain, will go in even bigger numbers for Romney;
  • Segments who were wild for Obama, like the Hispanics, young people, and even blacks, are less likely to appear at their polling stations in 2012.

Romney will still have to offer something to inspire people, according to Rove, which is the point I was making below about Obama’s failed opportunity before the NAACP Wednesday.

Still, Romney isn’t home free. To win 270 Electoral College votes, he will have to keep Republicans energized, increase his support among independents, seniors and the middle class, and make inroads among Hispanics and young voters. To do that, he will need to do much more than just criticize Mr. Obama’s many failures.

The closer Nov. 6 gets, the more pressure there will be on the GOP challenger to offer a principled, practical, detailed governing vision.

If Romney’s campaign plays it safe, they may squander the numerous chances he has been given to find pathways to win.

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21 Responses to Rove: It’s Worse for Obama than it Looks

  1. All those points strike me as not just likely but sort of obvious. The question is whether that will be enough. After the SCOTUS decision I can’t trust my judgment or the rationality of the world any longer. Obama shouldn’t have won in 2008 by campaigning on raising energy prices, redistributing wealth, and raising taxes, but he did. I’m not confident any of the old rules or indicators even apply any more.

    • Spot on. Guidelines, rules, indicators are no longer applicable – neither is common sense. The 2008 election was the year the baby was thrown out with the bath water.

  2. I read elsewhere that a poll shows Obama is down 14 points since March with the hispanic voters. And that’s after he promised amnesty. I’m still not confident Romney is close to locking it up, because Obama seems to pull many rabbits out of his hat. Today they’re calling Romney a felon regarding his Bain severance. Tomorrow they’ll attack on something else.

  3. I think Romney may be keeping his powder dry until after he’s “officially” the nominee.

    Right now, I’m enjoying watching him play rope-a-dope with the Obama campaign. So far, none of the attack ads are working for the Dems.

  4. I would think the Obama campaign is concerned about the “topping off” of his approval ratings. They’re running between 45-47% and don’t seem to be moving up. If they don’t move closer to 49-50% by Labor Day he’s got a real problem. After all, if his people aren’t with him by then they’re either not voting or they’re moving right. Still, it’s going to be razor close.

  5. “Republicans are more likely to vote than DEMS”.

    There are more registered D’s than R’s. The Obama forces have tens of thousands of ground troops ready to transport every DEM wth a pulse, and then some, to the polls. No registered voter, legal or not, will be left unturned! Obama has been preparing for ‘Operation Stealth Vote’ for the last four years. He is trading food stamps for votes. There is also an unprecedented, major campaign for votes in Europe…a Spanish company will be counting them. I smell a rat!

    • Obama: The “Biggest Mistake” I’ve Made As President Is Not Being A Good Storyteller…

      Weasel Zippers has a portion of the video. Notice how he averts his eyes, summons up the next “installment” of utter bullpoop.

    • In a way, he’s telling the truth; he doesn’t know how to talk to Americans because he doesn’t understand who we are. We aren’t cogs in the Chicago Dem machine, nor are we secret radicals who want to change our way of life.
      He’s used to talking to people who agree with his point of view and make things go easy for him.
      When the public disagrees with him, he thinks they’re either too stupid to understand or he’s not saying the right words to convince them that he’s right.
      Or. He’s just as delusional about his superpowers as some have suggested.

  6. We don’t hear it, don’t see or read about it, but we can feel it. IT is the determination of a population that has had enough and will take no more.
    MrRomney is doing just fine campaigning his way and not responding to the hysterical attacks, or even being pushed to answer questions before he’s ready.

    • You are spot on srdem. Just hope Romney doesn’t listen to Rove’s advice and start pandering to different demographic groups…

    • Well, Reagan answered all the questions about 15 years before he was elected and it didn’t seem to hurt him a bit . . . an empty suit that suddenly becomes full after Labor Day only emphasizes that it is an empty suit.

      But I do agree, srdem, that there is an intangible that the political professionals will miss. I felt it before the midterms, and I feel it now.

      And I agree, Susan, he should never pander to various groups. Obama’s effort to cobble together a coalition with a treat for this one and a trick for that is shameless.

  7. I liked the suggestion that Romney is keeping his powder dry until he is officially the candidate. In the meantime, what if he adopted some kind of throwaway line to use when the Obama Big Lies come out (Bain, felon, etc.) Such as, “Well, we all know what President Obama is like…” or “That’s President Obama’s way” … Reagan could have gotten away with it…why not Romney?

  8. Mr. Rove makes some good points. still, I have doubts with the man who was G.W. Bush’s top advisor. that same Karl Rove who stood by and watched as the GOP was virtually destroyed in the ’06 and ’08 elections over Bush’s obsession with Baghdad makes me question his political instincts.

    please make no mistake, Americans didn’t vote FOR Obama as much as they voted AGAINST G. Bush and his pig-headed foreign policies; even giving the dem bastards a huge plurality that they promptly used to push through B.O. care and other destructive Progressive programs.

    I also strongly disagree with Mr. Rove about dems not as likely to vote as the GOP. dems are flogging their base like never before to retain power. for many of these nutcases, that political power is the ONLY thing they live for. that sounds extreme, but it is very true.

    on that last point, I would urge all to read D. Horowitz’s great autobiog., ‘Radical Son,’ to see what I’m talking about and to see what Conservatives are up against.

    lastly, I question if Mr. Rove fully understands the true nature and very, very serious THREAT of the opposition.

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