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Obamacare is Not Permanent Yet. Not Nearly.

by Keith Koffler on June 28, 2012, 12:26 pm

For opponents of Obamacare, there is hope. And not even unrealistic hope.

Obamacare can mostly be repealed if three things happen this year: Republicans keep the House, Republicans pick up the Senate, and Mitt Romney is elected president.

Each of these things are easily conceivable. And given the likelihood that Republicans and conservatives will be energized to a fanatical degree by the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold Obamacare, the possibility of all three happening together is far from remote.

Republicans do not need a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the Senate to repeal Obamacare. That’s because, as former George W. Bush budget official James Capretta explained in National Review last October, most of the Obamacare provisions are budgetary in nature and so can be run through what’s called the Reconciliation process, which only requires 50 votes.

Capretta wrote:

It’s true that Obamacare includes some provisions that, on their own, might be considered non-budgetary, but not nearly as many as some may think. The entire machinery of the coverage provisions — the individual mandate, the Medicaid expansion, the employer requirements — is entirely fueled by federal money (in the form of both subsidies and penalties). Moreover, the state exchanges and the regulatory apparatus they are intended to impose are also financed by federal taxpayers. Repeal of all of these provisions, which are the guts of Obamacare, is plainly a budgetary matter, and therefore appropriate in reconciliation.

According to RealClearPolitics, some ten Senate seats in play are safely or lean Democratic, giving them a base – with seats not up for reelection this year, of 47. Republicans have a base of 45, with three seats either leaning or safely Republican. There are eight seats rated “tossups.”

And this was before the Supreme Court decision, and the heightened targeting of the Senate by conservatives that’s about to occur.

The battle over Obamacare continues.

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Spike June 28, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Car in June 28, 2012 at 1:20 pm

I want to believe.

LOL. I never know whether to trust those reports, but I sure WANT to.

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Spike June 28, 2012 at 2:53 pm

I’ve taken a very long time to come around to believing the WHI and WSI reports on Ulsterman … each has proven true with sufficient frequency/accuracy that I’m now a believer … also, I have a pretty strong “guess” as to the identity of WHI, based on my years working at a K St. law firm filled with lobbyists and operatives … if it’s who I think it is, we’re truly blessed to have the dude working for us this time around — he’s a fearsome opponent!

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SnarkEsq. June 28, 2012 at 12:36 pm

I hope so, Keith, The only way to get rid of it is if we also take the Senate. I’m praying that there’s an uprising that makes the 2010 midterms look like a….tea party, lol.

The Republicans must stop referring to “Obamacare” and each and every time it’s discussed, refer to it as “The Obama Healthcare Tax” or something like that. Plus, get those commercials rolling with the clips from BHO in 2009 repeatedly insisting it’s not a tax.

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Keith Koffler June 28, 2012 at 9:59 pm

Good point on phrasing – they will.

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SnarkEsq. June 28, 2012 at 12:38 pm

Also, can’t President Romney simply grant excemptions to any state that wants one, the way King Obama has already done with tons of companies?

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Chuck Thomas June 28, 2012 at 12:41 pm

I agree, Keith. While the WH is understandably spinning this as a victory, I have to believe that the adults around there know that this ruling, at this phase in the presidential campaign could not have been more poorly timed. This ruling is effectively the end of Bamster’s hopes of being reelected given what you describe as a fanatically energized response. 2010 will look like child’s play after the dust settles in early November.

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Dau Tieng 59 June 28, 2012 at 12:54 pm

The Republicans won’t repeal BOcare. Even the “Tea Party” members of the House folded and they will do it again. Fire next time.

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srdem65 June 28, 2012 at 1:01 pm

I wish I could see a silver lining in this defeat of the wishes expressed by a majority of Americans. I wish I could believe that newly elected Congress-critters will do the right thing to defund this tax grab.
“defund the tax grab”? I have lost the capacity to define the Obamacare tax.

The might of the federal government juggernaut is a force that rolls over the individual in so many ways, with so many laws and restrictions, that it makes voting seem like a puny revolt. Even if we replace the current group in Congress, we have no way to make them act responsibly or in our best interests and not theirs.

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Car in June 28, 2012 at 1:15 pm

The might of the federal government juggernaut is a force that rolls over the individual in so many ways, with so many laws and restrictions, that it makes voting seem like a puny revolt. Even if we replace the current group in Congress, we have no way to make them act responsibly or in our best interests and not theirs.

Yes,this. And yet when I try to tell people this – they think “I” am crazy.

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Mr. T. June 28, 2012 at 1:29 pm

Also having trouble finding the silver lining. If Barry can survive this, November 6th will be a walk in the park for him.

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MarjoJimbo June 29, 2012 at 7:19 am

That what really frightens me, Mr. T. Can you imagine the next four years if he wins?

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William June 28, 2012 at 3:50 pm

I’m with you on that. It’s hard to see a silver lining when the Supreme Court has decided the government can force you to do anything so long as they call it a tax.

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gracepmc June 28, 2012 at 7:27 pm

srdem65. For the first time I spent two hours listening to Mark Levin explain this. It is time well spent and if you can get the rebroadcast it would be good. I am sure it will be archived. I was having trouble too trying to define this tax. It is not a tax enumerated in the Constitution and it is only a “tax” because Roberts says the mandate functions as a tax. Looks like, walks like, quacks like argument. However as it pertains to the anti injunction clause, this does not apply because it is a mandate not a tax. Confused yet? Basically Robert said, how can we save this law – treat the mandate as a tax for purposes of having the law be constitutional. Needless to say Roberts is not Levin’s hero, but the 4 dissenters are. Had Roberts not claimed the mandate a tax, and joined the dissenters Obamacare would have been killed. My bad summary — check out the broadcast if you can.

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Keith Koffler June 28, 2012 at 10:01 pm

Thanks – will try to check it out. Levin is good on these things.

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Dawn Shevlin June 29, 2012 at 8:44 am

I am confused. I thought Roberts was referring to the “fine” you can pay if you do not buy ins. as being the “tax”? He said, “The federal gov. does NOT have the power to order people to buy ins. BUT they do have the power to impose a tax on those who do not have health ins.” So how is the mandate to PURCHASE a tax? I wish someone could redefine this grey area for me. It makes no sense. A mandate is an ORDER of which Roberts the swinger says is ILLEGAL. Lots more court cases to come I suppose. I will be one of them! If no one pays how can they put us all in jail. We must stick together Americans!

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Christopher Taylor June 28, 2012 at 1:44 pm

If you seriously think that congress is going to give up power over several trillion dollars and 20% of the US economy, you’re a fool. Especially if doing so can have their opponents campaign about them wanting to kill old people, orphans, minorities, children, and the poor.

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AZ Granny June 28, 2012 at 1:58 pm

Romney has raised over $1million since the Supreme court ruling this morning. He’s released a new ad already. That he’s on the ball and responds so quickly gives me hope that we’ll boot Obama in Nov.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8MgiQ9KZdqg

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Janna June 28, 2012 at 2:23 pm

Just made a donation to Romney…..every penny helps and I recommend like minded people do the same. We speak with our votes butt also with our wallets.

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rulierose June 28, 2012 at 7:01 pm

I haven’t made a donation yet (payday’s tomorrow) but I did get a Romney bumper sticker in the mail a couple weeks ago…and I just put it on my car.

and since I work at the ultra-liberal University of Michigan, I’m sure I’ll get some weird looks from my lib co-workers, who I have to admit really kept their gloating to themselves today, bless their hearts.

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Dawn Shevlin June 29, 2012 at 8:50 am

Yes! Excellent point. Also Romney has out raised BO in the millions in general. The whole law is doomed to fail based on one very important fact. WE ARE BROKE. Pitiful of them not to consider this. Just shows how demented they are when it comes to fiscal issues. Don’t worry people, it can not survive.

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lcsouthern June 28, 2012 at 2:45 pm

We must be vocal, so our politicians know they will also be out of a job and power if they don’t.

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regina June 28, 2012 at 3:23 pm

I think this whole thing is dirty. ALL he says is lies and ALL he does is spend money. I hope his family and friends can enjoy their last vacations of spending hundreds of thousand of our tax dollars because in Jan. ’13 he will be free to move to Hollywood where be is loved and belongs.

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Death Ray June 28, 2012 at 3:24 pm

BWAH HA HA HA! Sorry codgers, but you’re going to have to let some of the other citizens of this country get their bones set for less than the cost of a Mercedes now. The “undeserving” non-retirees have had their say!

I like Keith’s optimism, however. “We can still win this… as long as we elect the architect of Obamacare president and win both houses of Congress on a platform of re-instating lifetime caps and pre-existing condition discrimination!” Can’t wait for the ads!

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Janna June 28, 2012 at 4:35 pm

You can bite my lily white ass Death Ray ( racist….tough nuggies baby and I have grandkidlets who are kids of ” color ” so it isnt about that darlin’ )…what we will have now is a two tier system, not a fix all as you seem to think.

Those with the money will still be able to get whatever treatment they want, not necessarily need, while the rest of us will sit and wait….maybe you can have the tests, maybe not, maybe you can have the treatment, maybe not…are you too old? Infirm ? Are the years you have left worth treating you ? It is already happening.

Have we added new doctors to those we have ? NO. Are we already short of doctors ? YES. Now into the sordid mix we add millions of folks, not all of whom are actual Americans, so ask yer sorry self if you will still have access to YOUR doctor and if you do, will said doctor be able to order tests as he sees fit of will he have to beg the death dealer boards who will sit in judgement of your life and health.

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Death Ray June 28, 2012 at 5:47 pm

So, lousy healthcare and potential wait times are your bugaboo? Welcome to the world of People Who Don’t Have Medicare! Going into poverty over a scraped lily white knee is not just the fear of the elderly, Janna. But the Tea Party decided to throw in their lot with the billionaires, those “still able to get whatever treatment they want”, as long as they could convince themselves that Paul Ghenhgis Ryan would keep his mongul hands off of Medicare, thereby leaving the productive with a Sword of Damocles forever dangling over their heads.

Conservatives all think they “earned” Medicare and the freedom from doom it offers, but how did you earn it? You paid taxes. THAT’S ALL YOU DID.

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AZ Granny June 28, 2012 at 6:23 pm

The tax applies to anyone making more than $200,000 per year. In my book, that is NOT billionaires!

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Death Ray June 28, 2012 at 8:19 pm

lllllllllll

al

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Keith Koffler June 28, 2012 at 10:03 pm

Janna, no flaming please.

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Janna June 28, 2012 at 10:54 pm

Sorry

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Janna June 28, 2012 at 11:01 pm

Butt not very….and what Death Ray says isnt in-flaming???
Okie dokie…got it.

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William June 28, 2012 at 3:27 pm

I don’t know. It feels like I’m on Wake Island and it’s December 9, 1941…

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Death Ray June 28, 2012 at 3:38 pm

Really? Did the Japanese bomb you with medical supplies ? Did hundreds of crippled sailors suddenly grow new limbs and return to being productive citizens? Conservatives really do have an odd historical memory.

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Langley Spook June 28, 2012 at 4:04 pm

(is the Obama Propaganda Team sending Obama trolls out to all the Conservative/Anti-Obama websites this afternoon to spam with pro-ObamaHealthCare TAX comments?)

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CAR June 28, 2012 at 4:23 pm

Apparently.

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RickW June 28, 2012 at 4:26 pm

Death Ray, if its a tax, as SCOTUS ruled, why did POTUS go to such great lengths to insist it was not, in some cases raising his voice during interviews? I have no desire to get into a debate about pros/cons of health care, I’d just like your opinion on the tax question. Thank you.

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Death Ray June 28, 2012 at 5:37 pm

Thanks Rick, and the answer to your question is a scuttling cockroach named Grover Norquist, who has so co-opted the dialogue on revenue (on behalf of the wealthy) that the word ” tax” is now an instant Fox News Alert under any circumstance.

When you see how much ammunition the conservatives unleashed to prevent the ACA from going into effect, you can only imagine how many more bombs they’d have lobbed if the Dems had to defend a “tax” at the same time.

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RickW June 28, 2012 at 6:23 pm

Sorry DR, you didn’t answer my question about Obama’s passionate declaration that it was NOT a tax. You just looped back to the Liberal talking points. Have a good evening.

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Death Ray June 28, 2012 at 7:54 pm

I think I made the logic plain, but let me try again.

I am Obama in 2010, alone with my thoughts in the Oval Office, smoking a nail, wishing it were a jay (should I call Holder? He usually has a taste…) and I am wondering how I can pass a health care bill that includes a revenue-raiser through the House of Tea.

(drag, puff)

I’ve got it! I’ll do what the Republicans do when they want to raise revenue! I’ll call it a fee–well, a penalty, anything but a tax!–and if it makes it to the Supreme Court, they just might stick to the phrasing and not the phrase itself!

After all, my health care law won’t actually require ANYONE to BUY health insurance. It will, however, nudge those who don’t buy in the right direction with a stinging…

“It’s a tax, dammit”, I say out loud, but not so loud that John Gibbs can hear. “A tax that only I can know about, for now.”

I tap the pocket that holds the photo of John Roberts wearing nothing but Cheez Wiz and a smile. “For now.”

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Janna June 28, 2012 at 4:38 pm

And liberals seem to forget what a scourge on humanity the Axis was…or have you forgotten the concentration camps or perhaps the Battan death march…lovely folks you promote…just peachy.
ESAD, AH.

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Death Ray June 28, 2012 at 5:49 pm

How could we forget that? Conservatives trot out the word Nazi about fifty times a sentence when they discuss health care!

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rulierose June 28, 2012 at 7:35 pm

look Ray…this is ultimately not about Obama. it’s about the fact that Congress can now apparently regulate behavior AND NON-BEHAVIOR, as long as they call the penalty a “tax.”

I find that frightening. and the fact that you don’t is even more frightening.

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Death Ray June 28, 2012 at 8:04 pm

There really is nothing odious in that aspect of the law, when you come right down to it. Consider Medicare: If I die before it comes time for me to use it, have I not paid a tax for soemthing I never enjoyed? If I reach old age and, for whatever reason, forego Medicare, have I not done the same?

On a more practical level, I have no children, but I still pay property taxes to fund schools. Why must I?

Because it is a public good, as are police and fire departments, public parks I may never visit, etc.

The plain fact is, private health insurance, already unaffordable by the elderly and the poor, is now greatly unaffordable by many in the middle class. Factor in veterans and public employees, and now you have the majority of the country that cannot afford private healthcare under the current system. How long are we supposed to turn a blind eye to that obvious fact.

Health insurance is a public good. It is something everyone, without exception, needs. Can’t you be happy that Obama want with Mitt Romney’s plan instead of Karl Marx’s? It’s the only free-market solution that the Republicans have ever come up with.

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Shofar June 28, 2012 at 3:48 pm

In 1787 Benjamin Franklin was asked at the close of the Constitutional Convention what form of government did we now have, a Republic or a monarchy. He replied, “A Republic, if you can keep it.”

Today’s decision, coupled with the executive branch’s governing by fiat, I fear we have lost the republic, and are quickly heading towards some form of monarchy.

Rather than saying, “God save the King” we should be saying “God save the Republic!”

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William June 28, 2012 at 3:54 pm

Ah yes…the ancient Greek Kyklos in the modern world.

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Shofar June 28, 2012 at 4:05 pm

And so the cycle has truly begun.

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Langley Spook June 28, 2012 at 4:06 pm

“God save the Republic” = I like it… and we NEED IT NOW

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CAR June 28, 2012 at 4:24 pm

Seems more like a dictatorship.

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Vettgrl June 28, 2012 at 4:46 pm

Thanks for the reality check, Keith. I needed to hear that!

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TaterSalad June 28, 2012 at 7:39 pm

Since the Democrats rammed Obamacare down our throats without any transparency and used reconciliation and 51 votes to get it passed………Republicans should now use reconciliation and 51 votes, along “with transparency” to take it out. Fair play is fair play!

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The Original June 29, 2012 at 12:33 am

I read that the GOP will use reconciliation to repeal it. It is only appropriate.

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TaterSalad June 28, 2012 at 7:40 pm

Conservatives……………..it is now our time to do something about this travesty that took place today. We all need to get out and recruit, get people to sign up and put this matter “to bed” in November! Our country depends on “Us”, not liberals. Liberals are followers of the people who hand them something for “free” which actually is paid for by others!

http://therealrevo.com/blog/?p=77585

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Spike June 28, 2012 at 11:01 pm

Absolutely top notch article by Thomas Lifson over at AmericanThinker … an analysis of Chief Justice’s Robert’s decision, but from a very different perspective …

The politics of the ObamaCare decision (repeatedly updated with dissents)
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/06/the_politics_of_the_obamacare_decision.html#ixzz1z9COJON8

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The Original June 29, 2012 at 12:42 am

There is some great things in that article.

Obamatax . . . sounds like it.

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Mouse June 29, 2012 at 11:59 am

“And given the likelihood that Republicans and conservatives will be energized to a fanatical degree by the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold Obamacare, the possibility of all three happening together is far from remote.”

I totally agree. For myself, I am quite angry and have become motivated to vote…I was almost not going to vote because I could never vote for Obama, and I don’t trust Romney either. To vote for him is extremely distasteful. Now I have decided to vote, because if we don’t get Obama out of there, and I haven’t voted, I will feel partially responsible… Because if Obama wins, we can only expect more of these horrendous anti-freedom and anti-relgious freedom policies. And I am no fan of health insurance companies or corporations, mind you…. but I DO mind the government telling me how I can decide to organize my own life and my own money, should I find myself without insurance but in need of the money for other things…or telling me I must support products that are against my religion.

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Death Ray June 29, 2012 at 12:57 pm

Mouse-

This resistance to government “telling you how to organize your life”… does that extend to Medicare and Social Security also? Are you equally upset by those programs? More to the point, can you actually get along fine without one or both of them? I just cannot reconcile the conservative objection to ACA with the conservative defense of the other two programs. I mean, if you would be satisfied letting the free market run the show as far as health insurance for the elderly, please say the word.

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