If President Obama loses Pennsylvania, he will not win reelection. Because it will mean he is in trouble in states nationwide where he should be winning.
The latest Quinnipiac University poll puts Obama only six points ahead of Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania, 46-40 percent. Romney has a slight lead over Obama when Pennsylvanians are asked who would create more jobs, by 45-43 percent.
But remember, Obama has been in full national campaign mode for months, while Romney is just getting started campaigning on a national basis and targeting states where he has to beat Obama instead of other Republicans.
Being forced to defend Pennsylvania will cost Obama significant time and money. He doesn’t have as much of either as he’d like, though he appears to be carving out plenty of time to campaign, even if he’s not raising as much money as he’d hoped.
Obama defeated John McCain in Pennsylvania by more than ten points in 2008, 54.7-44.3 percent.