As of now, I am in control here, in the White House

Economy May Stall in the Spring. Again.

Both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times have pieces up today saying the economy may be about to take another good look at sustained growth and say, “Nahhhh.”

It can’t be understated what a bad deal this would be for President Obama. If he could just get the economy to show some momentum headed into the summer, he might be able to pretend his master plan is finally working.

But if the economy gets more sluggish in the summer, even good numbers in the fall won’t be able to help Obama, because the perception that things are rotten will already have been cemented. What’s more, employment is a lagging indicator, meaning that the unemployment rate won’t improve until months after there has been sustained economic growth. So if what the Journal and the Times are reporting is correct, unemployment is unlikely to go much below 8 percent before Election Day, and may yet rise.

If it goes up, Mitt Romney may be able to put his current dog on top of his car, head out on the Interstate, and still win the election.

The Journal explains what’s going on.

Rising layoffs, falling home sales and slowing manufacturing activity are sparking fears that the economic recovery is headed for a springtime stall for the third year in a row.

New data Thursday provided fresh evidence that the job market is losing the momentum it built earlier this year, which could pressure fragile housing markets that have been showing signs of life. Separate reports this week suggested that the factory sector, a source of strength in the recovery, now is being hurt by weak growth overseas.

However, recent signals have been mixed, with worrisome indicators following positive ones—such as consumer confidence and auto sales—that suggest the recovery remains on track. Economists generally believe total economic output in the first three months of the year grew at a rate a bit above two percent—slower than at the end of 2011 but significantly stronger than the same period a year ago.

I would think strong auto sales may be a bad indicator of real economic improvement. It may be that people who have resisted buying may be reentering the market because they haven’t been able to make a purchase for years and their cars are falling apart. Just a guess.

And I don’t care if two percent growth is better than the same quarter a year ago, it’s down from the three percent GDP increase of the last quarter of 2011, and just to use a technical term employed by economists, it sucks.

All of which means the chefs in the Obama campaign kitchen out in Chicago are preparing to stir the pot a little further by adding another dash of class warfare along with a good measure of ad hominen vitriol.

Because those are the only ingredients of success they have.

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15 Responses to Economy May Stall in the Spring. Again.

  1. On January 1, 2013, Americans will wake up to Obama’s New Year’s present – $500B in new tax hikes! If he was an intelligent man, he would not be running for a second term – he would be running for the nearest border on his way to a secret location! When the other half of the country discovers the carnage he has left in his path, the will be “Wanted” posters on the post office walls!

    This is only the beginning:

    TAXMAGEDDON – MASSIVE TAX INCREASES COMING IN 2013
    http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/04/taxmageddon-massive-tax-increase-coming-in-2013

  2. If it takes a stalled economy to ensure this grifter fails to win reelection then so be it. Nothing this administration has done has helped the economy….they’ve only made it worse. 5 trillion in additional debt in 31/2 years! Are you kidding me?

  3. If Obama has a master plan for improving the economy, maybe he’d like to give us a head’s up when it will be implemated. So far, his plan has been to bankrupt our treasury, reduce our military, give our money to his cronys, and promote union jobs, none of which has been a positive. .

    • …not to mention the costs of numerous individual vacations for the “Grifter-In-Chief” & the “First-Grifter”…on OUR expense account…
      ..oh yeah, in addition to MANY golf outings.

    • I agree, and would submit that if Romney is the candidate, then he should be telling US how he is going to fix the mess Obama has put us in.
      I am tired of the vague political rhetoric.
      I want specifics.

      • Amen AFVET! That is what I’ve been saying since Rick Santorum dropped out. If Romney is going to be our candidate, he needs to lay out his plan. He needs to stop pandering to special interest groups and start telling us what his plans are for getting us out of this mess.

  4. Keith–
    Hope you don’t mind that I provided the full recipe so in November voters will know what the final dish will look like if they don’t put their aprons on and start cooking in the hot kitchen.
    “…to stir the pot a little further by adding another dash of class warfare along with a good measure of ad hominen vitriol” and adding one cup of Bush-did-it, a sprinkle of narcissistic extract, two spoons of egomania, a pinch of the trampled constitution, ½ cup of teleprompter blathering while stirring in equal measures of lies, distortions and fabricated data.

  5. You called the car market. I have an MBA, a job, and a car with 165k on it. Anyway, I’m smart enough to go on YouTube and watch videos on rust repair. I’m also smart enough to know in do not have a career in auto painting. Anyway, I do not plan to buy a new car until late Nov.

  6. Yeah, but Obama will get another million out of the labor force and onto food stamps and disability so the unemployment rate will be 7.7% by election day. He will use this to claim that his policies are a success.

  7. From the artful headlines of The Drudge Report — Food Stamps Explode By 70% —Record 5.4 million sign up for disability under Obama (assume the 99 weeks of unemployment has run out) and there is a growing movement of squatters in the US. This and all the racial and class warfare as well as the supportive shenanigans of the Dept of Injustice is Obama’s America. This is what he has created. That eating dog story — that’s what’s on America’s menu.

  8. I disagree Kieth, unemployment (reported) will go down. It has to to give any support to Obamas’ smoke and mirrors. We have seen the numbers get fudged for (I think) 52 of the last 53 reports, with the initial report always that things are “improveing” and the following weeks “adjustment” showing they are the same, or maybe worse. It wont change.
    The one thing we can be sure of from this administration; there are no solid facts, only pixie dust and unicorn crap.