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POLITICO: Obama Should Worry

I wanted to flag for you a piece running in POLITICO today that questions the rationale for the recent perky optimism being emitted by the Obama operation.

The campaign and the White House have put out word recently that they and the boss are buoyed by recent positive numbers on the economy, a rise in Obama’s polls, and signs of deeply ingrained ineptitude plaguing their Republican opposition.

But while Mitt Romney certainly needs to go back to the laboratory where he was created for some fine tuning, the economy and the polls are not quite what many Democrats seem to think. Or say they think.

In the piece, POLITICO Executive Editor Jim VandeHei points to a widely overlooked nugget of data to be found in Wednesday’s Congressional Budget Office economic forecast, noting that the CBO is predicting an 8.8 percent unemployment rate around Election Day.

That, as VandeHei suggests, would be catastrophic for the Obama campaign.

Part of the New Optimism message is predicated on the unemployment rate having dropped from above 9 percent to its current level of 8.5 percent. If it starts going up again, the recent decrease will actually work against the president, because Republicans will be able to claim that after almost four years of Obama, joblessness is rising.

What’s more, CBO says we’re looking at about 2.2 percent growth in the third quarter. That, to put it in the technical jargon of economists, sucks.

Meanwhile, the polls, VandeHei notes, are not particularly encouraging in the states that matter.

The president had a 50 percent or better approval rating last year in only 10 states and the District of Columbia. In five states that could decide the election — Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia — Obama’s slide has been steep and uniform. In each state, approval in 2011 had fallen 12 or 13 percentage points from 2009 levels.

And the Obama campaign strategy of trying to crush their eventual GOP opposition with dollar bills doesn’t seem to be working.

Look at the latest numbers: Romney, the RNC and the super PAC run by his allies have raised a total of $175.7 million during 2011; Obama, the DNC and the super PAC run by his allies have raised $209.3 million. As far as cash on hand, Obama enjoys an edge but not a decisive one: $96 million to $63.5 million.

This doesn’t factor in super PAC American Crossroads and sister nonprofit group Crossroads GPS, which plan on raising as much as $240 million for the election cycle, or the political spending of the Koch brothers, David and Charles, who together plan to funnel $200 million to various conservative groups this cycle. It is possible Republicans could actually outspend Obama.

So when you see cheerful Obamaites on TV and view the president with his newly chipper affect, remember that this is as likely a facade to energize the grassoots and open up donors’ wallets as it is a true sign of the current state of mind in the West Wing and at campaign HQ in Chicago.

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41 Responses to POLITICO: Obama Should Worry

    • When I was in High School (long time ago) all the career counselors said be an engineer, you can always get a job. Sad thing is most people don’t realize there are so many different types of engineers, they just lump us all together. Some engineering fields are booming but many are flat or declining. His comment shows how naive and out of touch he is. He is one of those that hears engineer and says “I hear there are jobs everywhere”! Ask a Civil Engineer who works in site development.

        • So Keith and everyone else out there stop using the headline unemployment rate and drum the U6 number into the heads of those with any brains at all . Or use the labor participation rate or use the 6 million jobs lost . Some number that exposes the real labor market : the part timers , the drop outs, the forced early retirements . This is a number that people/voters see in their neighborhoods or stocking shelves down at WalMart .

  1. I hate the notion that the nation should be in such a predicament, but if that is what it will take to unseat BHO, so be it. He is, in fact, much of the reason that the situation has deepened and shows little or no indication of reversal as long as he occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

  2. I’d say about 95% of The Ruling Class, have no idea what’s coming down the Pike for the Kenyan Occupier of 1600 and by extention, themselves..
    The mountain of evidence presented at the Georgia ballot hearing was devastating! And it’s ALL online now. Just the testimony regarding his fraudulent SSN alone, is enough to sink him in the court of public opinion.

    The media, as much as they try, won’t be able to dismiss/spin the coming Georgia ruling. Not to mention the results of Sheriff Joe’s soon to be completed Investigation. I predict it will take on a life of its own online and the media will have no choice but to follow it.

    • AMEN !!!!!!!!!!
      Not only Georgia but several other states.
      Obama can run but he cannot hide.
      His Waterloo is on the horizon.

      Well said Dreams.

  3. I love irony the Obama coven of re-election robots are on TV constantly calling
    republican voters stupid and unable to see how swell things are funny. All
    the while they rest confident in the knowledge that it’s the Democratic base
    who believe every single word the Messiah utters as fact. Oh how the worm
    has turned. I hate to see the projected numbers but if we have to briefly fall on
    our sword to rid America of these two grifters and retake the senate we might
    just save ourselves. Yes Mitt needs a bit of retooling but at least he likes us
    he really likes us:-)

    • We the People do not need to fall on the sword.
      That would be ridiculous.
      We have just begun to fight.
      The battle is not over, it is just beginning.

      • I meant it as a metaphor not that we are weak far from it I have been a
        torch wielding villager for years and we will all fight the good fight :-)
        We will prevail!

  4. I don’t trust any of the statistics coming out of this lawless, corrupt government. They’ve been cooking the books for so long even they don’t know what the truth is.

    As far as his job approval rating…just wait until the backlash from his edict to the Catholic church comes back to bite his butt.

  5. After numerous appearances on “Morning Joe” (MSNBC) where MrVandeHei and the usual liberal suspects parrot the talking points supplied by the WhiteHouse, this piece sounds like he’s trying to get some credibility back as an independent and objective journalist.

    POLITICO is viewed as another extension of the Obama Whitehouse and will remain that way until they demand to see Obama’s hidden background.
    Let’s see them tear into Mr and Mrs Obama’s background they same way they did to MrsPalin, MrGingrich, MrRomney, MrCain,et al, and then they might regain some integrity as a real news organization.

    • Well said srdem. Personally, I don’t think there is any chance of Politico regaining integrity. Certainly not after the reporter’s reporter Jonathan Martin called parts of north Florida “the cracker counties” on MSDNC during the primary race.

  6. It really doesnt matter where Mitt was “created” as long as it wasnt in the cesspool of Chicago politics. Personally, I would vote for anyone who has a shot at taking the Biggest Loser and his wifey out of the White House. Anyone.

  7. Look at who his base is, and that has me worried. The unemployed are counting on that monthly subsidy check, so they need him. Most of the people on this website still believe in achieving the American dream but our numbers are dwindling.

  8. One of the most troubling aspects of this election is when the populace state they must like the candidate that runs against O or they will simply not vote. Our votes give us the opportunity to elect people to office and if they do not do the job, fire them and elect someone else. Why do people not understand that NOT voting is voting for whatever happens? Wouldn’t it be a much better campaign for Republicans to list everything that has gone wrong and is going wrong than to lambaste each other? All of this mudslinging overshadows important information that is emerging, for example: the “treaty agreement” O recently signed as an executive treaty that allows China to shut down American web sites without any legal process or input by Congress, Or denying the pipeline but funding one of his backers alternate energy companies that create only 38 jobs. Pelosi and Reid rant and rave against the “rich” yet their profits have increased more than substantially while most of America has declined. O makes unconstitutional appointments and nothing is done. Americans died at the hands of terrorists – this administration dishonors that by making deals to release 5 top Taliban with known AQ ties from Gitmo, where they were deemed too dangerous to release. Supposedly to Qatar for incarceration — we have seen just how long that lasts.

  9. Thank you very much for a true assessment of Obamas economy. Although I doidn’t like your a]sarcasm re.Romney, you tole it the way it really is.
    Sadly, Joe Wilson was dead on…..Obama is a liar. A dangerous liar.