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WashPost: Obama’s 2012 Advantages

Chris Cillizza, the Washington Post political analyst, has a good piece today on the difficulty a Republican candidate will face in 2012 overcoming Obama’s “built in” political advantage.

The idea is, Obama’s Electoral College total was so large that he can drop swing states like Florida and Ohio and still win.

I think this is too much of a technical analysis that overlooks the same popular sentiment and emotion that put Republicans in charge of the House. But it underscores that the GOP will have to nominate a first-rate candidate if they want to achieve the always difficult task of unseating an sitting president.

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5 Responses to WashPost: Obama’s 2012 Advantages

  1. I’ve been thinking about this a little and it scares me to know that Obama’s current tack to the middle (or at least the perceived/MSM-aided tack to the middle) is exactly what’s going to win him re-election. He spent his first two years doing all the unpopular stuff we rubes didn’t want him to do, and he knows that pandering to us and making us forget how horrible those first two years were is exactly what will win him re-election because his smooth-talking snake oil salesmanship will woo enough people back to his side. That’s because the electorate is mostly comprised of idiots.

    Add in the fact that the GOP — to this point — has no real viable, “sexy” candidate (I mean Romney? Come on.) and I see Obama winning re-election and really putting a hurting on us because he won’t have to answer to the people anymore. The only hope to stop him is to not allow the democrats to control both houses of Congress again. The big question is are we the people really dumb enough to let that happen, and I’m really afraid of the answer.

  2. First, the candidate will have to be moderate to draw disaffected Democrats, RINO-voting Dem’s and Rep’s who stayed home when McCain (RINO) won the nomination. That means the NH straw poll is correct: It will be Romney.

    Second, Romney will have to campaign hard in California, Ohio and Florida. He will have to open up drilling in the Gulf and off Florida to bring in those oil-drilling stock holders (who will come back out and vote) and, my hope, he will INVEST HEAVILY in the Jewish neighborhoods by attacking Obama’s veiled anti-Semitism. Several, well placed spots showing Obama, the PLO, Egypt and recent embroglio in Lebanon with Obama’s speech in Cairo …. may replicate the John Kerry-sailing-classical music commercial that helped push the hard fought district in Ohio that pushed Bush over Kerry in ’04.

    Third, Romney CAN win if he goes after Obama’s policies not Michelle, his personal life, birther, etc. He will have to campaign to the right (he will govern from the center) and push business, business, business as the key to victory.

    ITEM: Cilliza is right. Obama has all the tactical advantages now. By campaign season however, Romney can (and must) fire up the Republican base, but he must APPEAL to disaffected Dem’s and Independents. If he can make the case for his Presidency, “Chicago-lot” will end.

  3. Widespread unemployment and flashing inflation will decide if the voters want to try someone else at the helm or stick with MrO. When a serious contender points out that the rising cost of fuel can be blamed on the WH’s decision to shut down or prohibit oil drilling in the US, the unemployment figures can be attributed to the WH’s over-regulation of business and the benign approval of illegal aliens in the workforce, the voters will respond the same way they did last November.
    MrO has nothing positive to be the pivot of his re-election campaign. His basic instinct is to attack the opposition, but this time the opposition will strike back at his inept administration.